Guinea Presidential Run-Off Rivals Pledge to Push Ahead With Mining Review

Guineans vote in a delayed second- round presidential election on Oct. 24 that pits two candidates who have both vowed to overhaul mining laws in the world's biggest bauxite-exporting nation.

Former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, who received 43.7 percent of the June 27 first round, will compete against opposition leader Alpha Conde, who garnered 18.2 percent. The vote will mark the transition from military to civilian rule.

An ongoing review of mining accords has already led to a dispute with London-based Rio Tinto Group over ownership of the Simandou iron-ore project. Other companies operating in the country include Russia's United Co. Rusal, the world's largest aluminum producer, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Africa's biggest gold miner, and Brazil's Vale SA, the No. 1 iron-ore producer.

“Political and social pressures for a review of the legal framework governing the mining industry are unlikely to go away,” said Christopher Melville, a senior associate at Menas Associates in London. That may bring the new government “into further conflict with mining companies, many of which have negotiated special terms for their projects.”

Guinea holds as much as half of the world's reserves of bauxite, an ore used to make aluminum, more than 4 billion metric tons of “high-grade” iron ore and “significant” deposits of diamond and gold, according to the U.S. State Department. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. also operates in the country.

'Defending Interests'

The election is being held almost two years after army the seized power following the December 2008 death of President Lansana Conte, who ruled the country for two decades. Guinea hasn't had a democratic transfer of power since it gained independence from France in 1958. General Sekouba Konate became the leader in December after an aide shot the coup leader, Moussa Dadis Camara, in the head.

In the period since the first round vote, Conde has become the favorite to win the run-off after at least two defeated candidates pledged support to the 70-year-old leader of the Rally for the Guinean People.

“The momentum has clearly shifted toward Alpha Conde during the period of delay,” Melville said.

While beset with organizational difficulties, the June election was held “freely,” a European Union observer mission said after the vote. The run-off was then postponed for “technical reasons,” Konate has said.

Mining Deal

Conde will “renegotiate mining deals” and develop standard mining policies, Moustapha Naite, a spokesman for the RPG, said in an interview from Conakry, the capital, on Oct. 18. He also favors a stronger state role in the economy and plans to replace the leadership of the Central Bank of Guinea and promote economists who support lower interest rates, his adviser, Mamady Sinkoun Kaba, said in an interview on Sept. 10.

Diallo said in August he would also review mining deals if he wins the second round “to make sure that the interests of Guinea are defended.”

The 58-year-old leader of the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea was prime minister of the country from 2004 to 2006.

In the run-up to this weekend's vote, supporters of Conde and Diallo were injured in clashes between the two groups. This week, at least one person died when police fired upon backers of Diallo at a rally in Conakry.

A plan announced on Oct. 12 by Conde and Diallo to form a national union government may indicate that “none of these candidates are confident of victory,” Rolake Akinola, West Africa analyst at Eurasia Group, said in an interview on Oct. 15. The plan was reported by state-owned Radio Television Guineenne, which didn't provide further details.

Growth Accelerating

Guinea's political turmoil won't prevent the economy expanding 4.3 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2011, according to the African Development Bank. Mining generates 24 percent of the nation's total economic output, according to the bank's website.

Per capita income is less than half the sub-Saharan African average of $861, according to the World Bank, and the country ranks 170th out of 182 countries on the UN's Human Development Index, which measures life expectancy, literacy and gross domestic product per capita.

Source: Bloomberg

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Guinea poll "difficult" to hold Oct 24 -commission

Guinea's election commission chief said on Thursday it would be hard to stage a presidential run-off on Sunday as planned, citing a "deplorable" lack of preparation that would lead to a disputed outcome.

The comments were the clearest sign yet of a likely further delay in the transition from junta to civilian rule in the world's top exporter of the aluminium ore bauxite after a dispute over allegations of bias within the election commission.

"I must stress to you that the date of Oct. 24 will be difficult to stick to," new commission chief Siaka Toumany Sangare said after meetings with key political players.

"I would not want to rush and send voters to the ballot boxes in such deplorable conditions that do not respect international standards and which will mean that the results will be disputed afterwards," said Sangare, who was named two days ago after his predecessor was accused of partiality.

The presidential run-off is seen drawing a line under decades of authoritarian leadership that left the West African country in poverty despite huge mineral resources.

Sangare stopped short of confirming a postponement but said he would carry out an "objective and inclusive re-evaluation" on whether the poll could go ahead as planned on Sunday. Further talks -- and a likely final decision -- are due on Friday.

Earlier, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who has played a major role in efforts to guide Guinea towards civilian rule, suggested a delay of one week.

The run-off is due to pit former prime minister Cellou Dallein Diallo against veteran opposition leader Alpha Conde, strongly associated with the large Peul and Malinke ethnic groups respectively.

MINER UNCERTAINTY

A June 27 first round passed off relatively smoothly but was marred by accusations of fraud and other irregularities which prompted street battles between rival factions in which one person died and several dozen were injured.

It also sparked a row over the leadership of the national election commission which was only allayed on Tuesday with the naming of Sangare, a Malian, as the new president of the body.

The ensuing delay in preparations has meant that many of the electoral lists dictating voter eligibility in the various constituencies were not complete, one member of the cross-party body set up to oversee the transition told Reuters.

Diallo came out on top in the first round with 43.69 percent of the vote compared to Conde's 18.25 percent.

Analysts say whoever wins is likely to face calls to shake up existing contracts governing the presence of international firms such as Rio Tinto and RUSAL in the mining sector.

"Any new government will be vulnerable to such calls in the aftermath of a highly contested election. This could bring it into further conflict with mining companies," said Christopher Melville, senior associate at UK-based Menas Associates.

Source: Reuters

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Guinea election leader secures backing for run-off

The candidate who came top in the first round of Guinea's presidential election, Cellou Dallein Diallo, became strong favourite on Wednesday (28th July) to win the decisive run-off by securing the backing of a leading rival.

Diallo signed a deal with third-placed Sidya Toure, making him the likely next president following the elections, which are are meant to pave the way for a return to civilian rule in the world's top exporter of the aluminium ore bauxite.

Toure became a possible king-maker after he secured 13.62 per cent of the vote in the first round in June behind Diallo, who won 43.69 per cent, and second-placed Alpha Conde.

No date has been set yet for the run-off between the top two candidates in Guinea, which has been gripped by political uncertainty since a coup in late 2008.

"I express my thanks to Mr Sidya Toure for having agreed to ally himself with us," Diallo said after the pair signed the agreement in Conakry.

No details were made public but sources in Diallo's UFDG party said Toure's party had been promised the post of prime minister and 30 per cent of cabinet jobs in return for its support, should Diallo win.

"(The choice) for the second round is difficult. But our priority is that Guinea should at last launch its economic development. That is why we made the choice (we made)," Toure told reporters journalists after the signing ceremony.

Toure told Reuters last week that he would negotiate with the two leading candidates to try to secure an alliance.

Sixth-placed Ibrahima Abe Sylla's NGR and the PUP former ruling party also signed the agreement to support Diallo, a 58-year-old former minister and prime minister under the late President Lansana Conte.

Months before Guinea held its election, Rio Tinto and Vale surprised many by saying they would spend billions on iron ore projects there. Analysts expect some contracts will be reviewed after the elections but a Diallo victory could ease fears.

"We don't believe that Conde will put together a comparable coalition and we expect Diallo to be the next president of Guinea, barring any unexpected reintervention from the army," said Chris Melville, senior associate at Menas Associates.

"Diallo has spent recent months getting close to members of the transitional government and his victory would provide some reassurance to mining companies that have signed agreements with the (transitional government)," Melville told Reuters.

Voters following orders?

Results from the first round showed the importance of ethnic allegiance, with Diallo and Conde taking votes from their own large ethnic groups - Peul and Malinke, respectively.

Toure's Diakhante minority makes up just one percent of the population but if he can repeat his first round performance, and there is no significant anti-Peul mobilisation, Diallo looks set to win.

"I think that (Toure's) supporters will do what he tells them to do. I don't think there will be a lot fading off," a diplomat who follows Guinea told Reuters.

Conde has opposed all three recent and generally unpopular leaders - Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, who seized power when Conte died but was replaced by an interim leader after being shot last year, Conte himself, and Sekou Toure.

European and US observers broadly praised conduct of the 27th June first round vote following months of political tension and wrangling, which included the killing of dozens of pro-democracy demonstrators last year. But the process revealed a number of logistical problems which experts say poll organisers need to fix before a potentially tense and close second round of voting.

Source: Reuters

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