Qadhafi is losing control of Libya's borders

While the media speculation on how long Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi will stay in power continues, one thing seems clear: he is fast losing control of his country's borders.

Thousands of foreign nationals have been fleeing the country by both its eastern land border into Egypt and its western land border into Tunisia in recent days as Tripoli's airport struggles to cope with the number of people wanting to leave.

Reports from the border with Egypt have suggested that opposition forces have gained control of the border. According to the BBC there are no government officials at the border and formalities are at a minimum. A new flag is flying and a picture of Col Qadhafi has been cross out.

There are a series of checkpoints as you drive into Libya, which are armed by army and police officers, but they have all defected to the opposition. The BBC reports that locals are even acting as traffic police.

It is estimated that 1.5 million Egyptians were in Libya. An Egyptian security official told the Associated Press that about 5,000 Egyptians have returned home and about 10,000 more are waiting to cross the Libya-Egypt border.

A Korean news source has reported the story of nine Koreans working in Libya who drove for 67 hours through the desert on mostly unpaved roads to escape the country to Egypt. Their office in Tubruk had been looted over the weekend and a number of public buildings in the city were set on fire, they said.

Reports so far indicate that Qadhafi's forces have fared better on the Western border, and the plain green Libyan flag of his regime is still flying. Huge bottlenecks are reported at border crossings, although large numbers are getting through.

The International Organisation for Migration said on Wednesday 23rd February that thousands of foreign nationals were leaving by the western land border as well.

"Although a significant number are from Egypt, Tunisia, Sudan, Chad, Niger, West Africa and the Horn of Africa, there are also migrants from other parts of the world including Asia," it said. "Among them are Filipinos, Sri Lankans, Bangladeshis, Pakistanis and Chinese."

It also mentioned Lebanese, Turkish, Syrian and German nationals have left through the land border. IOM spokesman Jean-Philippe Chauzy said the arrivals began on late Tuesday.

Fleeing migrants said they had been stopped at checkpoints by pro-government soldiers who confiscated mobile phones, passports and other belongings, Chauzy said.

Many foreign ministries, including that of the UK, have started or will start evacuating their citizens from Libya by air and sea.

Sources: BBC, Reuters, Associated Press, JoongAng Daily

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Stakes rise with Guinea election gamble

A move by Guinean authorities to hold a delayed presidential run-off on Sunday marks an attempt to contain rising ethnic tensions in the West African country but could store up trouble for later.

The landmark vote, meant to end nearly two years of military rule, has been repeatedly postponed since the first round in June amid outbursts of violence between rival political camps and a lack of adequate preparation.

The newly-appointed electoral commission chief surprised observers on Tuesday by proposing to hold the vote on Oct. 31 -- a move widely seen as a bid to stifle rising conflict and the potential for a new military coup.

"There are clearly dangers in allowing this impasse to continue," said Chris Melville, senior associate at Menas Associates, a London-based consultancy watching Guinea and its large bauxite and iron ore mining sector.

But the attempt to rush the vote could lead to a chaotic election aftermath in a country that has drawn billions of dollars in investment from firms like Rio Tinto and Vale.

Junta leader General Sekouba Konate has yet to ratify the date and one candidate, ex-premier Cellou Dallein Diallo, said the date was premature -- raising worries that his supporters would vigorously contest the outcome if he lost.

TRADE-OFF

Diallo took 43.69 percent in June's first round, relying on support from his ethnic Peul, who make up about 40 percent of the country. Veteran opposition leader Alpha Conde, one of the Malinke who make up about 35 percent of the country and have tended to enjoy political power since independence, took 18.25 percent of the first round.

But Diallo's lead may not be as strong as it appears.

Diallo said on Tuesday that recent ethnic clashes in regions that favour Conde had displaced large numbers of his supporters and no measures had yet been taken to ensure they could vote.

Conde has burnished his support with alliances with defeated first-round candidates Papa Koly Kourouma and Jean-Marc Telliano -- both of whom did well in the large Guinea Forestiere region -- and has strong support in Malinke stronghold Haute Guinea.

After complaints in the first round that some voters had to travel 20 miles (30 km) to vote, election officials have been adding new voting stations in those regions -- in theory making for a stronger turnout for Conde.

"The first round showed Diallo as the clear front-runner. But it will be interesting to see if the machinations of the political elite in between will affect those results," said Tara O'Connor of Africa Risk Consulting.

Analysts said the Peul would be in no mood to accept defeat this time around given their view that other ethnicities have ganged up to exclude them from power since independence from France in 1958.

But there has been pressure from Paris, the United Nations and neighbouring states on Guinea not to delay the election any further. Assuming Konate accepts the Oct. 31 date, the trade-off will be in favour of reducing the risk of violence before the vote in the hope of being able to contain it later.

"The damage to the electoral system has already been done," said O'Connor of an electoral process that was billed as being Guinea's first democratic vote since 1958.

"It is just better that they are getting on with it."

Source: Reuters

For more news about Nigeria, please visit the Menas Associates Newsroom.