Libya's extreme south

Since the fall of Tripoli in April, it had been widely assumed that Sebha, a Qadhafi stronghold in Libya's extreme south, could become a major redoubt for Qadhafi's retreating forces. However, around 20 September, a spokesman for the rebel forces, Colonel Ahmed Omar Bani , reported that rebel forces controlled as much as 70 per cent of Sebha. At the time, this was met with some incredulity, especially as the rebels had made some premature claims of military victory. However on 22nd September, National Transitional Council (NTC) fighters claimed to have overrun the whole city and taken wholly into their own hands.

There were no signs of either Qadhafi or his son Saif al-Islam being in the town, as many had believed.

Similarly, two or three days later, reports were received that rebels had entered Traghan, the centre of the oasis complex just south of Sebha, and found no sign of Qadhafi or his sons, as had also been thought likely. There is for now no further information on why Sebha appears to have fallen so quickly and with such little resistance.

Although it has always been regarded as a Qadhafi stronghold, there is much suppressed opposition to him in the town and the region, and it is possible that this opposition was able to make its presence felt. Alternatively, it may well be that remaining Qadhafi forces in the city retreated farther south, perhaps along the Wadi al Ajal to the Oubari region or farther on to Ghat or the Traghan oasis complex, or possibly into Niger Of course, it is conceivable that the bulk of Qadhafi's forces in Sebha could have been brought farther north several weeks earlier to reinforce resistance in places such as Bani Walid.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya: Uncertainty likely to remain and hinder early restoration of normal economic life

The war could arrive at the gates of Tripoli, but not until the Interim Transitional National Council (ITNC) can succeed in surging through Sirte and on to Misrata and Tripolitania. Therefore, for the time being and other considerations apart, the threat of fighting on the streets of Tripoli should be enough to deter all but the bravest of companies from an early return to their assets in Libya.

The capture of Tripoli and of Colonel Qadhafi are key elements in the opposition's policy toward the state. Inevitably, unless decisively defeated, Tripolitania will be a central target for armed and covert operations by eastern Libyans. Any immediate improvement in the situation is, therefore, difficult.

At best companies, in present circumstances, can encourage local employees to keep a watching brief over physical assets. They could secure, where possible, the integrity of its workforce through the payment of wages (for example) and could continue to support their activities in Libya through visits and establishment of a presence on the ground to indicate a continuing corporate interest in commercial Libya.

At the moment, however, the prognosis must be that there will be a continuing struggle without there necessarily being an early settlement because neither side currently has the ability to win outright. The exception here is if the UN military intervention remains firmly in support of the revolutionaries.

Uncertainty is likely to remain to hinder an early restoration of normal economic life although the wide-scale official recognition abroad of the revolutionary government would be a major step forward.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

US imposes additional sanctions on Libya's NOC

The US has imposed additional sanctions on Libya's National Oil Corporation's (NOC)14 subsidiaries in a bid to increase the pressure on Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi.

According to the director of the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, Adam Szubin, the NOC and its subsidiaries have been a “a primary funding source” for the Libyan government.

Szubin also added: “Consistent with the UN Security Council Resolution 1973, all governments should block the National Oil Corporation's assets and ensure that Qadhafi cannot use this network of companies to support his activities.”

This latest move follows a number of other attempts to stop Qadhafi, including the freezing of more than $32 billion in government assets, personal as well as those of his family, senior government officials and related companies.

The US Treasury Department said it would continue monitoring the corporation's activities, positing that should the corporation's subsidiaries “come under different ownership and control”, it may consider authorising deals.

Late on Tuesday [22nd March] Qadhafi made his first television appearance since coalition forces began bombing targets in an effort to enforce a no-fly zone. The Leader remained defiant, saying: “Long live Islam everywhere. All Islamic armies must take part in the battle, all free [people] must take part in the battle…We will be victorious in the end. In the short term, we will beat them. In the long term, we will beat them."

Sources: Upstream, RTT News, Sify News

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

International community at “point of decision" about Libya

Reports have emerged that rebel forces within Libya have re-taken the oil town of Brega, capturing military troops. Hours earlier the rebels were driven out of the town by Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's supporters.

Speaking about the situation in Libya, Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague has said that the international community is close to reaching a “point of decision" on military intervention to protect the Libyan population from Qadhafi'S aerial bombardment.

Following Arab League's backing of imposition of a military no-fly zone, Hague said that the international community has a responsibility to consider the rebels' requests for help. He also said that the international community should consider arming the rebels in order to help them combat Qadhafi's loyalists.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Hague said: "We are now reaching a point of decision, very clearly, on what happens next…Clearly a no-fly zone is one of the leading propositions. It isn't the answer to everything but it has been called for by the Arab League and is something which the international community must now consider."

Hague added that all arms exports to Libya, including to the rebels, are subject to a UN embargo, but noted: "I wouldn't exclude various possibilities on this score…Again, this is the kind of subject which has to be discussed with our international partners."

Sources: BBC News, Sky News, The Guardian, AP

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.