Wednesday, 13 July 2011

Libya: Military stalemate continues

The long period of quiet military stalemate has stimulated a growing lobby in Libya, particularly in Tripolitania, to call for an end to the fighting. This is bound to intensify if the revolutionary army is successful in pressing on toward Tripoli.

The likelihood of a peace settlement based on the implementation of a new constitution and a regime of law and order is distant because the Transitional National Council (TNC) and the rank and file of the revolutionary organisation are dedicated – at any cost – to see either the expulsion of the Qadhafis or their death in battle. These cadres are young, many are professionally qualified, and are well aware of the real nature of democracy and are unlikely to be impressed by rapidly written constitutional documents which, in the past, have always been ignored.

It will, therefore, be seen that Libya remains at high risk of being unable to recreate the domestic private sector or bring international investors into projects other than the rehabilitation of the pre-war economy. The role of foreign capital and technical expertise will be vital to Libya's recovery because without both, it will profoundly constrain both oil exports and hence, revenue for reconstruction.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

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