Wednesday, 15 June 2011

Libya: Security of foreign personnel and assets

There is a measure of safety that is inherent in the current stalemate in the fighting. This is, however, a period of uncertainty and instability, with both sides supplied with money and armaments that are adequate to sustain a military campaign throughout the summer. Foreign investors and suppliers will need to have large resources and support services within one or both of the governments contending for power if they are to have success in this field. The destruction of plants and buildings is continuing, with worst areas being around Misrata, Zintan and Zawiya.

The imminent prospect of foreign involvement in Libyan investment will be either in the form of aid such as the grants made by Kuwait and Qatar towards the costs incurred in the rebel held areas or in specific projects which are key to health such as water provision, hospital facilities and other civil works. It is advised that foreign contractors and suppliers would be wise to keep away from any project which is in the area of challenge between the warring factions unless it can be provisioned by a direct external link and has NATO assent.

The trend appears to be in the strengthening of the rebel forces while the Qadhafi military machine is gradually running down. The immediate end of the war is not expected despite the many forecasts that the Qadhafi clan and its supporting entourage is about to disintegrate.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

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