Egypt: Mubarak trials resume

The trials of Hosni Mubarak and his family, as well as some of his cronies, have resumed amid moves to accelerate the process. There has been much resentment at the way the trials have been stretched out, leading to suspicions that senior members of the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces (SCAF) hope that Mubarak will die before he can be found guilty.

The prosecutors are showing some determination, and this week accused Mubarak of being a corrupt tyrant who had devoted his last ten years in office trying to ensure that his son Gamal succeeded him. They said that he had ordered the killing of protesters when the demonstrations broke out early last year and have announced that they seeking the death sentence.

AFP reports prosecutor Mustafa Khater as saying: “The law foresees the death penalty for premeditated murder.” Given the severity of the charges, seeking the death penalty was always a possibility, but many Egyptians will be shocked to hear the demand put so bluntly for the first time in the trial.

Earlier, both head of SCAF, Mohamed HusseinTantawi, and ex-head of intelligence, Omar Sulaiman, had testified that Mubarak had not ordered security forces to open fire on demonstrators in early 2011 (860 died).

Although there is a popular belief that the Mubaraks salted away billions of dollars, the prosecution said that Alaa and Gamal had illegal assets of rather less: US$340 million.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Iran: Investors cool on South Pars bonds

Informed sources say that investors have purchased only 14 per cent of rial bonds that the Ministry of Petroleum sold through domestic banks across the country from 26th November to 1st December to attract funds for South Pars projects.

From the total investment of 5 trillion rials ($4.5 billion) expected to be attracted through selling bonds, only 700 billion rials ($630 million) was raised. Accordingly, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) announced that the bond offer would continue until the end of working hours on 4 December.

Experts believe that this cold shoulder results from an unpredictable gold and foreign exchange market, which attracts more funds and cash inputs. It could also suggest a lower level of overall liquidity in Iran's economy as investors have been attempting to deal with rising inflation.

The oil industry upstream sector in particular has been facing serious financial issues in recent years, which will be aggravated if bonds continue to sell poorly in further phases.

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

New Saharan provinces in Mali

On 16th December, the Malian government announced that it was going ahead with the plan to create two new provinces in the northern desert regions of Taoudéni and Ménaka. Taoudéni is currently part of the Timbuktu region and Ménaka part of Gao.

This move is in accordance with the intention to increase the number of provinces from eight to 19 over five years. While justified as part of the state's decentralisation programme, the creation of these two new provinces in particular is also an attempt to improve the security of the country's northern region. The move will inject more administration into these largely ignored regions, as well as new military commands.

While the proposal appears to be welcomed by some sectors of the population, notably the Arab community of Timbuktu, it is receiving mixed initial views from the Tuareg population. While some see it as a genuine move towards decentralisation, others are wary that it will establish greater restrictions, especially militarily, over the predominantly Tuareg regions. The schedule for these new regions coming into practice is not yet established.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Ghana: Small parties may hold 2012 election balance of power

If, as seems likely, the December 2012 presidential election goes to a runoff - between the National Democratic Congress' (NDC) incumbent John Mills and the opposition NPP's Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo Addo - then the disorganised and mainly leftist smaller parties could be important in deciding the outcome. This is why the two are energetically wooing them and why the NDC, which has many Nkrumahists in its ranks, probably has an advantage.

The oldest, but no longer the largest, Nkrumahist party is the Convention People's Party (CPP) which is chaired by Samia Nkrumah who is the daughter of Ghana's founding president, Kwame Nkrumah. Samia is the party's only MP and complains that it is disorganised: 'But, somehow, having an election every four years limits our ambitions.'

She is supported by Dr Agyeman Badu Akosa but they have now clashed with the party's former presidential candidate Paa Kwesi Nduom (see story below). He flounced out of the party on 27th December and is starting a new one on whose ticket he will run for the presidency. This year he may use his own considerable funds to support over fifty aspiring MPs.

The other Nkrumahist party, the People's National Convention (PNC), has four seats in parliament and could hold the balance of power. It is, however, divided between a group led by Somtim Tobiga, and the mainstream faction which includes Edward Mahama and the party's general secretary, Bernard Mornah.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Ibru struck from register

The Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) has struck out the name of a former managing director/chief executive officer of Oceanic Bank and honorary fellow of the Institute, Cecilia Ibru , from its register of members.

A statement from the body yesterday said the decision was in furtherance, maintenance, and observance of ethical standards and professionalism among practitioners of the banking profession in Nigeria. The CIBN explained that the action was taken in line with the decision of its disciplinary tribunal on 12th December, which was confirmed by the governing council of the Institute, at its meeting of 13th December.

The tribunal, made up of eminent members of the banking profession with a retired justice of the Supreme Court as an assessor, in a unanimous decision granted the CIBN's request, indicating that Ibru 'should cease to hold herself out as a member of the banking profession (as provided by s. 16 of CIBN Act). With this development the name of Dr. (Mrs.) Cecilia Ibru has been struck out of the Register of Members of the Institute and hence, Banking Profession. She has also ceased to be a member of the banking profession.'

On 14th August 2009, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sacked Ibru alongside four other bank CEOs, after an examination revealing that the institutions they controlled had high level of non-performing loans, poor corporate governance practices, lax credit administration processes and an absence of or non-adherence to credit risk management practices, among other problems.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Mekong joint patrols

Joint patrols of the Mekong River by China, Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar have begun as a way to combat crime and drug trafficking on the major waterway. The Golden Triangle has long been a centre of drug production, trafficking, and piracy. Gangs often hijack boats, which they then use for trafficking or smuggling and to kidnap people.

Earlier nine Chinese crew members were killed and nine Thai soldiers arrested. (They assert their innocence.) The murders finally prompted an agreement between the four nations in Beijing on 31st October.

The launch of these joint patrols is part of a plan to increase security in the increasingly busy river and shipping lane. They have set a precedent for more transnational cooperation in security issues in the region. On the first venture out, on 10 December, five armed police boats escorted 10 Chinese cargo ships along a stretch of the Mekong from China's southwesterly Yunan province to Thailand's Chiang Rai, heavily armed with machine guns and hundreds of soldiers.

The four nations will patrol 24 hours a day and provide convoy escort for cargo ships in an area that is rapidly becoming an important trade route for regional trade. One enthusiastic English-language Chinese newspaper called the plan 'a blessing to the 70 million people living in the river basin and the international commercial vessels travelling along the river.'

For more news and expert analysis about Vietnam, please see Vietnam Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: Sonatrach executives jailed

A court in Oran has confirmed the prison sentences imposed on former Sonatrach president director general Mohamed Meziane and four other defendants last May (see Algeria Focus May 2011, page 9). Both the defence and the prosecution announced their intentions to appeal to the supreme court, the former continuing to insist on the men's innocence, the latter still hoping for a harsher penalty.

One media report described Meziane's “visible disappointment”. It said that, as he left the court, “with a gesture of his hand he showed that he could not find the words to react to the verdict”. According to Le Soir d'Algerie , the verdict surprised the five defendants. “We were expecting to be acquitted, it isn't just,” said one of them. A defence lawyer explained what had happened, saying that “it was easier to reconfirm the verdicts than to overturn them. We truly thought that they would all be acquitted.” Meziane was sentenced to two years, one suspended, and a AD500,000 fine. The former downstream vice-president Abdelhafid Feghouli , who temporarily took over as PDG after Meziane, received one year, of which eight months was suspended, and a AD200,000 fine.

Others with similar convictions were Benamar Touati , the former PDG of Sonatrach subsidiary Société de Conditionnement et de Commercialisation des Gaz industriels (Cogiz); Mekki Henni , former head of Sonatrach Aval 's studies and development department; and Nechnech Tidjini , head of the Algeria-French consultancy Safir . All have served their minimum terms and are therefore now at liberty. The trial concerned a contract awarded via the gré-à-gré system through Sonatrach Aval to Safir to build a nitrogen storage and conditioning centre.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates