Sahara: One dead, one alive?

There were reports in the French media at the end of April, notably in AFP, that Haroune Said, a former colonel in the Mali army who had deserted and become Iyad Ag Ghali’s right hand man, had been killed in a French military operation north of Kidal on 24–25 April.

Although Colonel Gilles Jaron, speaking for the French General Staff, did not confirm that the dead jihadist was Said, sources in the Mali military and the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) both told AFP that it was. For a short while, there were also ill-founded rumours that Iyad himself had been killed. These may have stemmed from unverified reports on local social media some two weeks earlier that intimated as much.

Authoritative local sources are fairly certain, however, that Iyad, now wanted as a designated international terrorist, is being sheltered by the authorities in Algeria. It is widely believed that he is being housed just across the border in Tin Zaouatene, although his presence has also been reported in Tamanrasset. Confirmation was also received this month from a former high-ranking US intelligence officer responsible for the sector that Iyad was being sheltered by Algeria.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.
© 2014 Menas Associates

 

Sahara: Chinese fined for environmental violation

Following a recent strike by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) workers, the Chad government announced on 21 March the imposition of a US$1.2 billion fine against the Chinese oil company for repeated environmental damage.

In a tough call, Environment Minister Mahamat Issa Halikimi said, ‘As a result of non-compliance with its obligations and repeated violations of environmental standards … the government requires CNPC International to repair the damage and pay a fine of US$1.2 billion.'

This is a remarkable, and some might say welcome turnaround by a government that, only a decade or so ago, was complicit in allowing appallingly sloppy environmental practices at the Doba oil fields, not to mention dangerous environmental safety shortcuts made for financial reasons in the construction of the Chad–Cameroon pipeline.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.
© 2014 Menas Associates

Sahara: IEA on North Africa

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) medium-term outlook report, published on 28 May, anticipates that oil production from OPEC members Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria will stagnate over the next five years at 7.12 million b/d, posting more or less zero growth from 2012 to 2018. Last year, the agency anticipated supply growth of 685,000 b/d from 2011 to 2017.

 

Antoine Halff , head of markets at the IEA in Paris, said that at first the Arab Spring of 2011 looked like a blip as production recovered quickly from the war in Libya. 'But it turns out it is a big event,' he said. 'We are beginning to see security issues in northern and western Africa and this will have implications for OPEC supply.' Although oil production recovered from the Arab Spring faster than expected, the delayed impact of the revolutions that swept across North Africa is now hurting supply growth forecasts for Libya, Algeria, and Nigeria.

 

The IEA is particularly bearish about Algeria, forecasting a drop in oil production capacity from last year's 1.2 million b/d to 0.8 million b/d by 2018. The other African members of OPEC will see their production capacity stagnate instead of posting significant growth, as the IEA forecast only a year ago. This gloomy outlook comes on the back of escalating security risks, uncompetitive fiscal terms, challenging local content requirements, and contract sanctity concerns. The IEA concludes, 'Increased violence by Islamist extremists and militants, against a backdrop of political instability across much of northern and western Africa since the Arab spring, is changing the equation for acceptable risks for international oil companies.'

 

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Mali's former president Toumani in Senegal's embassy

In a joint press conference in Paris with France's President Nicolas Sarkozy, Senegal's President Macky Sall said Mali's ousted leader is in the country at the Senegalese embassy. He noted: “President Amadou Toumani Toure [is] at this moment on the territory of the residence of the embassy of Senegal in Bamako."

Until recently, Toure's whereabouts since last month's military coup were unknown. The news of his whereabouts follows the arrest of several of his political allies this week.

Toure formally resigned on April 8, as part of a deal for the soldiers to hand back power. Mali's former prime minister Modi Sidibe was picked up by men in military police cars and reportedly taken to Kati, just outside the capital, Bamako, to the headquarters of the rebel soldiers. Reports later emerged that Defence Minister Sadio Gassama and the man responsible for the former president's personal security chief of staff Gen Hamidou Sissoko are also being detained by the military.

Speaking about the latest developments in Mali, Sall said: “This is a troubling situation." He added that West African leaders were "trying to find a rapid and peaceful solution first of all internally so we can return to the normal constitutional regime and then deal with the partition of Mali."

Since the coup, Tuareg and Islamist militants have taken over the majority of the northern desert region. The former have declared independence for the region, a move resisted by the civilian and military authorities as well as Islamist elements.

Sources: Reuters, AP, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

Algerian troops in Mali

The linkage of the alleged Aguelhok executions to Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the DRS raises two significant questions:

What was the Algerian army doing in Aguelhok?
Was the West complicit?
Troops on the move

Algerian armed forces crossed into Mali on 20 December. While the Algerian government eventually admitted that 15 military instructors had been sent to Mali, local observers reported an Algerian army convoy of five army trucks with trailers and 24 heavily armed 4x4s heading south on the Bordj Mokhtar–Tessalit– Aguelhok road. The number of troops was not given but can be assumed at around 200.

The same sources confirmed Algerian troops were garrisoned at the army bases in both Tessalit and Aguelhok. In addition, an army transport was seen flying into Kidal. It contained an unspecified number of Algerian army officers and was reportedly heavily armed. What were these troops doing in Aguelhok and had they been withdrawn to Algeria by the time of the alleged executions? The official reason given by Algeria for its troop presence was to help Mali combat AQIM. That was untrue, however, as no attacks have been launched at any time against AQIM in Mali by either Malian or Algerian forces.

All the signs are that the Algerian army wasn't here to protect AQIM from any assault on it by the MNLA, which has threatened to rid Mali of AQIM. As the MNLA has stated, AQIM is a cover for the billion-dollar cocaine trafficking industry, which is controlled by elements of the political-military elites and their security services in both Mali and Algeria. While the MNLA's secessionist demands may be a threat to Mali's sovereignty, the most serious threat is to the continued presence of AQIM in Mali and the lucrative state-run cocaine business. Indeed, if Mali were not such a close client state of Washington, it is likely that it would already have been labelled a narco-state.

Western complicity?

The second question concerns the matter of complicity. The line of reasoning is as follows. If Abdelhamid Abou Zaïd and AQIM were involved in executions at Aguelhok, the DRS is implicated and its allies and backers, namely the United States and the United Kingdom, may also be deemed complicit. Both US and UK intelligence services are aware of the DRSled AQIM training camp in the Tassili-n-Ajjer. Thus, if Malian soldiers were executed at Aguelhok by AQIM, the people who undertook the executions were under or closely associated with Abou Zaïd's command and almost certainly trained in such methods at the DRS-managed AQIM training camp. If an international enquiry were to establish such a chain, then how far could Western allies of the DRS be held accountable? That question makes a full investigation of what took place at Aguelhok unlikely.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

New Saharan provinces in Mali

On 16th December, the Malian government announced that it was going ahead with the plan to create two new provinces in the northern desert regions of Taoudéni and Ménaka. Taoudéni is currently part of the Timbuktu region and Ménaka part of Gao.

This move is in accordance with the intention to increase the number of provinces from eight to 19 over five years. While justified as part of the state's decentralisation programme, the creation of these two new provinces in particular is also an attempt to improve the security of the country's northern region. The move will inject more administration into these largely ignored regions, as well as new military commands.

While the proposal appears to be welcomed by some sectors of the population, notably the Arab community of Timbuktu, it is receiving mixed initial views from the Tuareg population. While some see it as a genuine move towards decentralisation, others are wary that it will establish greater restrictions, especially militarily, over the predominantly Tuareg regions. The schedule for these new regions coming into practice is not yet established.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Niger: Issoufou to face Oumarou in a run-off

The head of Niger's electoral commission, Abdourahamane Ghousmane, said Mahamadou Issoufou was leading in the presidential race with 36 per cent of the vote. He also said Issoufou is to face former prime minister, Seini Oumarou, in a run-off neither of the candidates received a majority vote.

Oumarou, a close ally of former president Mamadou Tandja, ousted by the army in 2010, is backed by a broad coalition, including the party of the third-placed candidate, Hama Amadou. Niger's military ruler Salou Djibo promised to hand power to an elected leader before April.

Last October, a new constitution was passed in a referendum, reducing the powers of future presidents and limiting them to two terms in office. The election results are expected to return uranium-rich Niger to civil rule.

Sources: BBC News, The Canadian Press, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.