Yemen: Nexen may leave, Total hopes for extension

Canadian oil company Nexen, which has been active in Yemen since 1987, has announced that it is “reconsidering” its position after it was prevented from renewing its concession for the Masila oil field, which was due to end on 17th December. The company said that, “while we are disappointed we did not receive an extension, we are proud of the accomplishments we’ve achieved there. Our operations at Masila have generated significant value for our company, enabling us to deploy the cash flow to build our current portfolio of legacy assets.” The government has set up Masila Company for Petroleum Exploration and Production (PetroMasila) to take over the field and its proceeds will go to the ministry of finance. Production at the field has dropped to only about 10 per cent of its 2003 peak of 225,000 b/d. Nexen still has another small field at East Al- Hajr, producing 6,000–8,000 b/d.

Earlier this year, Yemeni government sources were signalling that the concession would be renewed. More recently, Nexen indicated that it was planning for a withdrawal should negotiations fail, suggesting that it did not expect to win. It is possible that the government desperately needs as much revenue as it can get from the field to make up for the reduction in income as Yemen’s other oil exports fall. The opposition says that the people will not see any of the money, as it will be squandered by the regime for political purposes.

The affair sends a very bad signal to other companies still looking to enter Yemen, either to farm into existing concessions or try to get new ones. Others are interested in Yemen’s considerable mining potential. Yemen clearly needs to do all it can to encourage foreign investment in both building on the promise of the transition arrangements and the international willingness to help Yemen overcome its problems.

Gas exports, which will be of increasing importance to Yemen, have not been interrupted. Total is negotiating arrangements over its oil concessions. This will no doubt be helped by the high-profile (for Yemen in these dangerous days) visit by the French ambassador to its Block 10 field in Hadhramaut.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Warplane airstrike kills 30 Yemeni soldiers

Yemeni local officials have said that almost 30 soldiers have been killed in south of the country during a Yemeni warplane airstrike. The government has denied the reports. The assault on Saturday 1st October hit the 119th brigade troops near Zinjibar, in the Abyan province, and was followed by militant attacks.

It is yet to be confirmed whether the attack was an error. Yemeni TV, however, denied the bombing took place.

It is thought that the 119th brigade has joined a rebellion against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is now back in the country after three months in Saudi Arabia.

The militants suspected to be linked to the Al-Qa'ida have exploited the security vacuum in the country to launch a number of attacks on civilians and military personnel.

The army has been involved in an ongoing battle to reclaim territory. Last month, it recaptured Zinjibar. In country opposition, however, says the Yemeni government has exaggerated Al-Qa'ida's activities in order to gain international sympathies.

According to the BBC, the warplane hit an abandoned school, where the regiment was taking shelter. An unnamed military official also told AFP news agency that militants later attacked the base and "killed even more soldiers".

The ongoing turmoil in southern Yemen has ignited fears about the prospect of a civil war ever since military units and tribal groups joined anti-government protests in recent months.

More protests were reported in Sana'a on Sunday 2nd October, with people still calling for Saleh to resign. The Yemeni president, who sought treatment in Saudi Arabia after an attempt on his life, refuses to step-down but has recently called for peace in the country.

The latest attack in south Yemen follows the killing of US-born Islamist cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, seen as the key figure in the Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula. Al-Awlaki is thought to have been killed by a suspected US drone in the east of the country.

Sources: AFP, BBC News, Reuters

r more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: US withdraws diplomats as fighting gets worse

It is estimated that more than 70 people have died during three days of violent clashes between Yemen's Hashid tribe fighters and security troops. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has once again refused to resign despite increasingly violent protests.

The clashes began in Sana'a's northern region, near the home of tribal leader Sheikh Sadeq Al-Ahmar. Former supporter of Saleh, Sheikh Ahmar joined protests against his rule in March. The fighting, which reportedly lasted over six hours, also involved machine-guns, grenades and tanks.

In view of the speedily deteriorating situation in the country, the US has ordered all its embassy staff to leave Yemen immediately. The US State Department released a stamen, saying: "The security threat level in Yemen is extremely high due to terrorist activities and civil unrest. There is on-going civil unrest throughout the country and large-scale protests in major cities… US citizens currently in Yemen should depart while commercial transportation is available."

The situation in Yemen seems to be escalating; many fear the prospect of a civil war. Saleh, however, remains defiant refusing to step down. Discussions about the on-going crisis in the country and arrangements for Saleh's departure broke down on Wednesday 18th May, when the president once again refused to sign the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) mediated deal which would have allowed him to leave office in exchange for immunity from prosecution.

On Wednesday 25th May, US President Barack Obama said Saleh should "move immediately on his commitment to transfer power". UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon added that he was "deeply troubled" by the violence and called on all sides to find a peaceful solution.

Sources: BBC News, The Guardian, CNN

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: US position shifts

Yemen's regional and international friends are deeply frustrated by the inability of Yemen's politicians to agree on a way forward and presumably by their own powerlessness to influence events.

Many experts had predicted that President Ali Abdullah Saleh would fall when the US and Saudi governments ceased to support him. That support was withdrawn in late March, though nothing was said in public and the US appears to have concluded that the fight against Al-Qa'eda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is Washington 's main priority in Yemen, could not be pursued with a president whose position had become untenable. A US spokesperson had condemned the violence of recent weeks as “appalling” and another had spoken of an urgently needed agreement on a transition – Saleh leaving power, in other words. The US froze its new aid programme to Yemen, due to start in February.

The US and its allies fully understand the problems that any new regime will encounter but now see this as a lesser evil than Saleh staying on, even though there must be deep concerns about how the counter-terrorist forces led by Saleh's close relatives can remain intact. The US has been careful – in public – not to be seen to be interfering too overtly and wants to leave the details to the Yemeni people. As one US official put it, President Saleh has expressed “his willingness to engage in a peaceful transition, but we don't have any specifics, we don't have any timelines”.

The EU governments have been speaking more plainly, demanding that Saleh agree to a transitional arrangement. French foreign minister Alain Juppé went further, saying that the “resignation of the Yemeni president has become inevitable”. Turkey, a regional power with growing influence on the peninsula, said that it expected “Yemen's administration to show respect for the fundamental rights and freedoms of the demonstrators who have been expressing their expectations and demands through peaceful means. We wish Yemen's future to be determined within the scope of a comprehensive national dialogue process that would be carried out with the participation of all segments of the society.”

The UN Security Council discussed the situation in Yemen on 19 April and eventually issued a neutral statement, apparently because of the unwillingness of China and Russia to use stronger language. This is consistent with their stance on the Arab Spring, where they have wanted to let each state decide for itself on its future, without outside interference.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Yemen: Both Saleh and the opposition reject GCC's offer

Both Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh and the opposition have rejected the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council's (GCC) initiative for a peaceful transition of power. Saleh has outright refused to step-down early, and the protesters rebuffed any suggestion of Saleh being granted immunity from prosecution.

The political turmoil in Yemen has been ongoing for almost two months. It is estimated that as many as 120 people have been killed in the clashes between security forces and anti-government protesters.

On Sunday 10th April, the GCC called on Saleh to resign as part of an agreement with the opposition. Saleh rejected the proposal, and the offer of mediation, saying he would not step-down before 2013.

The GCC had invited both the opposition leaders and the long term Yemeni president to Saudi Arabia for talks. It also offered Saleh and his family protection from prosecution for abuses of power, an offer which outraged the protesters who had specifically demanded that Saleh and his kin be put on trial.

According to several sources, Saleh despatched a letter to the GCC saying he could no accept the offer, but praised the organisation for its attempt to mediate the situation. His supporters, however, have rebuked the GCC calling its attempt to intervene a "flagrant interference in Yemen's internal issues."

For their part, the protesters took to the streets in their thousands in Sana'a, Taiz, Aden and other major cities.

Sources: Reuters, CNTV, Aljazeera.net, The Guardian

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Arms factory death toll rises

Reports have emerged that the death toll from the arms factory explosion in the southern town of Jaar has more than double from 70 to 150 people. The incident has caused an outcry of anger from the locals, who have accused the Yemeni government of staging the blasts and blaming them of the Al-Qa'ida in a bid to gain sympathy from the international community.

The death toll is based on the number of bodies found among the rubble, and the people reported missing. A local official said some bodies were burned beyond recognition. The blasts occurred while locals were searching for ammunition left behind by suspected Al-Qa'ida militants who had reportedly raided the factory on Sunday 27th March.

News of the explosion quickly spread across the country, prompting hundreds of people to take to the streets in Aden. A statement released by the opposition group Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) accused President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his cronies of plotting with the al-Qa'ida “in a desperate attempt…to prove that he was right when he said that Yemen is a ticking time bomb, that he is the only one who can prevent it from blowing up".

Inspired by the “Jasmine Revolution” in Tunisia, Yemeni people took to the streets in protest to poor living conditions and unemployment but are now demanding that Saleh step-down immediately, saying his power is a danger to the country and its people.

Sources: BBC News, Dawn, Kyiv Post

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Can the Friends of Yemen meetings go ahead in the current crisis?

The political crisis poses a major difficulty for Yemen's regional and international allies. Governments at the beginning of March were preparing for a range of contingencies, including the possible departure of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. They want Yemen to increase its efforts on counter-terrorism but at the same time to address popular demands for political and economic reform.

In early March, Yemeni politicians had other preoccupations and these may continue for some time. Governments have been finding it difficult to arrange the next Friends of Yemen meeting scheduled for Riyadh – initially in February but now supposedly in late March – presumably because it is difficult to get the Saudis to make a decision in the absence of King Abdullah. He is now back and will be looking at the Yemeni problem but he also has to think about his internal situation (as evidenced by the major increase in salaries announced as soon as he returned) as well as the situation in Bahrain, which for Saudi Arabia is of profound importance. The process may have to be put on hold for a while.

William Hague, the British foreign secretary, made a brief visit to Yemen, just before the current political problems started. He said the UK would continue to support the Yemeni government and its people as they seek a better future, but reiterated the need for the government to focus on political reforms as well as increasing economic growth and creating jobs. He also stressed the importance of the National Dialogue in achieving broad-based political participation in upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. He emphasised the UK's determination to work with Yemen, the US and others to combat the threat posed by Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula. He stressed his backing for a united and stable Yemen, capable of combating this threat.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Yemen: Four days of protests result in violent clashes

Anti-government protestors have clashed with Yemen's security forces, on the fourth consecutive day of demonstration in the country's capital Sana'a; as thousands of demonstrators, calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down, came up against a crowd of Saleh supporters.

Police fired tear gas into the crowds to disperse them, while the protestors chanted: "After Mubarak, Ali". There were also reports of clashes between pro and anti government supporters south of the capital in Taez.

It is estimated that over 3,000 protestors clashed in Tahrir Square, some armed with broken bottles, daggers and stones. Police locked several thousand people inside the local university to minimise the violent confrontations.

Saleh is reportedly preparing to hold talks with opposition groups on possible political reforms, in an attempt to prevent his overthrow before time as he promised to stand down in 2013, and assured the nation that his son would not replace him in office.

Sources: BBC News, The Guardian, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen put $100,000 reward on al-Qa'ida terrorists

Yemen's Interior Ministry has offered a $100,000 reward for information leading to the arrest of any one of the eight Al-Qa'ida suspects on its list. The ministry promised a reward to anyone providing information leading to the capture of the "terrorist extremists."

The ministry's list of identified al-Qa'ida terrorists includes, Amin Abdullah Abdul Rahman al-Othmani, Bashir Mohammed Ahmed al-Hlaisi, Showqi Ali Ahmed al-Baadani, Abdul Elah Ali Qasem al-Mesbahi, Abdul Hamid Ahmed Mohammed al-Hubaishi, Mohammed Ali Abdullah al-Nashri, Musleh Abdullah Ahmed al-Hlaisi and Yusef Ahmed Muthana Zayud.

It told state owned news agency Saba that the men were wanted by the authorities and that they had been recruited by militants "obsessed with murder and destruction."

Yemen, homeland to al-Qa'ida's leader Osama bin Laden, is increasingly under threat from the local branch of the jihadist network.

Source: AfricaAsia

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen car bombing kills 15 people

A car bombing of a Shi'a religious procession has killed 15 people in the Jawf province, in northern Yemen. Leader of the region's Huthi rebels said his group was targeted by the attack.

No one singular group has claimed responsibility for the attack, which took place during al-Shadeer, a festival not recognised by Yemen's majority Sunni Muslims. Yemen is under threat from rebel groups in the north and the south of the country, as well as al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula.

A number of sources have confirmed that 30 people were also injured in the car bombing. There has been speculation that al-Qa'ida or a Sunni Muslim group may have carried out the attack, but nothing has yet been confirmed by the Yemeni government.

Conflict between rebel groups, and between different tribes, particularly in northern Yemen, are as important as the religious divide between Shi'a and Sunni Muslims, and equally as complicated.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen estimates reserves of around 11.9 billion barrels

Chairman of Yemen's Petroleum Exploration and Production Authority Nasr Ali Al-Humaidi has said that studies by the organisation have estimated that the total oil reserves in the 35 blocks tested contain around 11.9 billion barrels of oil.

Al-Humaidi said that the area in which work of exploration and production implemented at present are 25 per cent of the total area of the blocks. He said that the results so far were 'promising' and that Yemen is still in the first stages as a petroleum country.

“Exploration and production of oil and gas still need a lot of efforts and large investments and require teamwork and shared responsibility to provide different conditions appropriate to encourage the flow of domestic and foreign investments in oil and gas field. Oil and gas are one of the most important areas of investment in Yemen, if not the most important of all currently,” said al-Humaidi.

He also pointed out that the organisation has general oversight of all the operating processes in the blocks and that it, “represents the state as an essential partner in the areas to create a large infrastructure in the oil-producing blocks including production facilities to handle oil, gas, water, and exportation of crude oil units”.

Source: Yemen Observer

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.