Elections hold key to elusive Mozambique peace deal

Aside from Mozambique’s upcoming October elections, both the government and the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) have announced that they have made significant progresses in peace talks and are close to reaching a deal. Government spokesman, Gabriel Muthisse said both sides have made concessions on the main points of disagreements.

Negotiators have been pursuing common grounds on issues including the integration of Renamo men in the army and the withdrawal of the army's soldiers near Gorongosa. One of four Renamo spokesmen, Saimone Macuiana, who leads the Renamo delegation in talks with the government, had said that they will soon be able to publish the terms of reference for international observers who will oversee disarmament and a ceasefire.

Bishop Dinis Sengulane, one of the mediators of the talks and who was in London last week, has told Mozambique Politics & Security that this should happen on time to allow RENAMO leader, Afonso Dhlakama, to campaign for elections. He has also hinted that some of the outstanding issues may have to wait until after the elections.

Sources say that Dhlakama is expected to return to Maputo to launch his presidential campaign sometime in August. As for a possible meeting between Dhlakama and President Guebuza, the Renamo leader says that the detention of his spokesman Antonio Muchanga has made him reconsider that possibility. According to him, Guebuza has invited him to Maputo to arrest or assassinate him.

For more news and expert analysis about Mozambique, please see Mozambique Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Mozambique: Renamo's National Council meets without Dhlakama

As expected, Renamo’s National Council is meeting this week in the central city of Beira. The agenda is primarily to discuss their electoral manifesto for October's general elections. For the first time in Renamo history, party leader Afonso Dhlakama will be absent. The party spokesman has said, however, that Dhlakama will launch his presidential election campaign by telephone from his Gorongosa mountain hideout.

Dhlakama’s absence is important because the meeting will also see the election of representatives as prospective MPs, and also appoint the party’s presidential candidate. There is no doubt that Dhlakama will be proclaimed as Renamo’s presidential candidate but the party is still very behind Frelimo and MDM.

Renamo has not officially registered a candidate for October’s elections, and its members are yet to collect the supporting signatures that Dhlakama will need for his presidential bid. The question many are asking at this stage is whether Renamo will manage - in just three months - to assemble an effective electoral arsenal to win enough seats in parliament, or whether will it opt to continue to rely on bullets instead of the ballot to change Mozambique's political system.

For more news and expert analysis about Mozambique, please see Mozambique Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates