Bloody siege in Tikrit masterminded by suspected Al-Qa'ida militants

Iraqi officials have said that the bloody siege in the town of Tikrit, the capital of the Salahuddin province, was masterminded by suspected Al-Qa'ida militants. It is estimated that more than 50 people were killed in a fierce gun-battle, which ended when the attackers blew themselves up.

The siege, which to took place near a local government building, left about 100 people injured. Local government officials and an Iraqi journalist were among those killed in the attack, which began at 1300 local time (1000 GMT) and lasted several hours.

Masked gunmen wearing military uniforms blew up a car outside the council headquarters to create a diversion, then raided the building and shot more than a dozen people, including three lawmakers.

The northern provinces of Salahuddin, Diyala and Ninewa continue to be attacked by insurgents. Speaking about the latest one, Salahuddin Governor Ahmed Abdullah said it was "a tragic incident carried out by ruthless terrorists".

Sources: BBC News, Washington Post, AP

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

Libya: Uncertainty likely to remain and hinder early restoration of normal economic life

The war could arrive at the gates of Tripoli, but not until the Interim Transitional National Council (ITNC) can succeed in surging through Sirte and on to Misrata and Tripolitania. Therefore, for the time being and other considerations apart, the threat of fighting on the streets of Tripoli should be enough to deter all but the bravest of companies from an early return to their assets in Libya.

The capture of Tripoli and of Colonel Qadhafi are key elements in the opposition's policy toward the state. Inevitably, unless decisively defeated, Tripolitania will be a central target for armed and covert operations by eastern Libyans. Any immediate improvement in the situation is, therefore, difficult.

At best companies, in present circumstances, can encourage local employees to keep a watching brief over physical assets. They could secure, where possible, the integrity of its workforce through the payment of wages (for example) and could continue to support their activities in Libya through visits and establishment of a presence on the ground to indicate a continuing corporate interest in commercial Libya.

At the moment, however, the prognosis must be that there will be a continuing struggle without there necessarily being an early settlement because neither side currently has the ability to win outright. The exception here is if the UN military intervention remains firmly in support of the revolutionaries.

Uncertainty is likely to remain to hinder an early restoration of normal economic life although the wide-scale official recognition abroad of the revolutionary government would be a major step forward.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya's Foreign Minister Musa Kusa defects

Libya's Foreign Minister and one of Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's closest allies Musa Kusa has defected, saying he was “no longer willing" to serve the regime. Experts say this might prove to be a momentous turning point for Libya, with further defections to come.

Kusa flew into Britain last night, a move that was supported by Whitehall. A foreign office spokesman said: “We encourage those around Qadhafi to abandon him and embrace a better future for Libya that allows political transition and real reform that meets the aspirations of the Libyan people.”

The spokesman added that in view of the events in Libya, Kusa felt he could no longer “represent the regime internationally” or stand-by Qadhafi's actions.

Kusa arrived from Tunisia where he was said to be on a diplomatic mission. His defection has given hope that the regime may splinter internally thereby weakening Qadhafi's hold on the country. A close confidant of the Leader for over 30 years, and head of Libya's spy agency, Kusa was said to be responsible for masterminding the 1988 Lockerbie bombing, and later for the negotiations in releasing the bomber, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed Al–Megrahi.

Speaking about the situation in Libya yesterday [30th March], Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron said he was not “ruling out” arming the rebels despite having previously indicated that this may not be possible under the terms of sanctions imposed on Libya. The Prime Minister noted: "It is an extremely fluid situation but there is no doubt in anyone's mind the ceasefire is still being breached and it is absolutely right for us to keep up our pressure under UN Security Council 1973. As I've told the House, the legal position is clear that the arms embargo applies to the whole territory of Libya.”

Sources: BBC News, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Algeria: ANC holds fractious first meeting

The newly-formed Alliance Nationale pour le Changement (ANC), grouping former prime minister Ahmed Benbitour with the Islamist party El Islah, has held its first political meeting on 18th March in Algiers. According to a report in Liberté, the meeting was “outrageously dominated” by Islamists, including ex-Front Islamique du Salut (FIS) leader Ali Belhadj, who was invited and “received a hero's welcome”.

Other leading figures in the Alliance include former Rassemblement national démocratique (RND) secretary general Tahar Benbaibeche and Abdelkader Merbah of the Rassemblement pour la Republique (RPR). Benbitour told those present that the objective of the alliance was “to change the system in its entirety and not only specific individuals”, and that this had to take place “peacefully or in chaos”. He added that it was time to “put an end to this façade of democracy and other formal reforms aimed only at satisfying the great powers to the detriment of the Algerian people”.

A defector from the Mouvement de la Société pour la Paix (MSP), a presidential alliance party, called on Islamists and secularists to work “hand in hand” to bring about change in Algeria. Judging from the reception to the ANC's first meeting in the Algerian press, this will be no simple task, as the level of mistrust of the intentions of former Islamists such as Belhadj still runs high.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

ExxonMobil to start drilling in Vietnam at the end of April

ExxonMobil will start its first exploratory drilling off the central coast of Vietnam at the end of April. The decision followed a meeting of the company's representative and leaders of the People's Committee of Da Nang City.

The two sides discussed plans to avoid environmental pollution and ensure safety. The drilling will be conducted at block 119 on the continental shell offshore from Quang Ngai Province and Da Nang City. Vice chairman of the Da Nang People's Committee, Phung Tan Viet, ordered the city's Department of Agriculture and Rural Development to inform fishermen not to use the exploration area during the 40 days of drilling.

ExxonMobil' Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson recently said that the company plans to spend around $100 million a day for the next half decade as it drills previously unreachable oil and natural gas deposits. He added that the company has budgeted $34 billion for capital projects this year, a 5.6 per cent increase from 2010.

Sources: Viet Nam News, Huston Chronicle, AP

For more news and expert analysis about Vietnam, please see Vietnam Focus.

Arms factory death toll rises

Reports have emerged that the death toll from the arms factory explosion in the southern town of Jaar has more than double from 70 to 150 people. The incident has caused an outcry of anger from the locals, who have accused the Yemeni government of staging the blasts and blaming them of the Al-Qa'ida in a bid to gain sympathy from the international community.

The death toll is based on the number of bodies found among the rubble, and the people reported missing. A local official said some bodies were burned beyond recognition. The blasts occurred while locals were searching for ammunition left behind by suspected Al-Qa'ida militants who had reportedly raided the factory on Sunday 27th March.

News of the explosion quickly spread across the country, prompting hundreds of people to take to the streets in Aden. A statement released by the opposition group Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) accused President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his cronies of plotting with the al-Qa'ida “in a desperate attempt…to prove that he was right when he said that Yemen is a ticking time bomb, that he is the only one who can prevent it from blowing up".

Inspired by the “Jasmine Revolution” in Tunisia, Yemeni people took to the streets in protest to poor living conditions and unemployment but are now demanding that Saleh step-down immediately, saying his power is a danger to the country and its people.

Sources: BBC News, Dawn, Kyiv Post

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Nana Rawlings to challenge Mills' candidacy

For the first time former first lady and President of the 31st December Women's Movement, Nana Rawlings, has publicly said that she will challenge incumbent John Atta Mills for the National Democratic Congress'(NDC) presidential nomination in the 2012 elections.

Last week, when asked about her political intentions at a conference on women's empowerment, Rawlings said: “Having an intent is a good thing and I'm sure you all have aspirations, It is good to have aspirations and it is good to have an intent. The intent is there but I have not declared yet.”

We hear that Rawlings made a similar declaration to former minister of education, Harry Sawyer, at the NDC's Council of Elders in January. Rawlings' supporters are already wearing tee-shirts bearing slogans such as “I believe in Nana Konadu” and “Change, real change”, many of which are said to have been printed on the former first couple's instructions.

In Winneba, Rawlings said that that emerging democracies would only prosper if women are encouraged to run for high office. She spoke of her political ambitions in the context of women's rights: “It is only when women are part of policy planning and implementation that we see the requisite improvement in the lives of women.” This is a shrewd tactic given the growing business and political profile of women in Ghana.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates