Algeria: FLN wins parliamentary elections

According to official results, Algeria's National Liberation Front (FLN) has won Thursday's (10th May) parliamentary elections. The party won 220 out of 463 seats, while its partner in government, the came second with 68 seats.

An Islamist alliance group came third winning 48 seats, but it has made accusation of fraud. The vote had been billed as Algeria's most free and fair, but has been marred by widespread voter indifference.

Algeria officials said turnout was 42.9 per cent, much higher than initially expected. There has been speculation, however, that the figure may be inflated. According to AFP news agency, the three Islamist parties forming the Islamist Green Algeria Alliance, which saw their combined share of the seats drop, said the election was fraudulent.

Professor Abdulali Rezaki of Algiers University told Reuters that he thought 85 per cent of voters would boycott the elections. The reason he gave for the boycott was because “parliament has become a place which people hate. It has become an institution working under the rule of administration instead of carrying out its legislative and supervision missions…This is the election of people who struggle to rule, not the ordinary public.”

The Algerian authorities were keen to show that the voting process could be a democratic one, with President Abdelaziz Bouteflika approving the establishment of 23 new political parties before the vote.

The mood among Algerians seems to be a mixture of resentment and apathy. Most argue that 'elections have always been fraudulent, so why should this one be any different'. The flagrancy of the way in which these election results have been reportedly manipulated has, however, angered many.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

In another sign that Russian-Turkmen relations may be gradually getting back to normal, Russian cellphone company MTS is set to return to Turkmenistan after an enforced absence of eighteen months.

The company was unceremoniously kicked out at the end of 2010 after the Turkmen authorities refused to renew its licence, which began in 2005. No reason was given for the cancellation, which cut off around half the population (MTS had around 85% market share) and forced them to switch to the state-owned provider Altyn Asyr instead. For ordinary Turkmen citizens, the cutoff had a serious effect on business and social life as the state provider was unable to provide the same coverage.

MTS slammed the move as thinly-disguised expropriation, and filed several lawsuits with international arbitration bodies. Nothing appeared to come of them, and the Russian government chose not to intervene in the dispute. The Turkmen government refused to pay any compensation for the sudden shutdown, saying it had followed legal procedures.

Ashgabat's decision to resume the company's licence is equally mysterious. It seems that the government has realised the inability of Altyn Asyr to cope with the influx of customers. Service is expected to be resumed within three to six months.

The story is in some ways a good encapsulation of the government's approach to handling business. Nominal commitment to foreign investment followed by a sudden and unexplained volte-face, based on a serious miscalculation of domestic capabilities. The one bright spot is the government's willingness to walk back on its bad decision.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Seven Algerian hostages up for ransom

Since last week's report, when it appeared that the seven Algerian hostages looked likely to be freed soon, their situation appears to have taken a turn for the worse. The alleged kidnappers, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is believed to be an offshoot of AQIM and with leadership links to the Algerians DRS, is now demanding Euros 15 million for the diplomats, along with the release of prisoners held by Algeria. It is also demanding a further Euros 30 million for the three European aid workers abducted from Tindouf on October 22-23.

This new demand was made on Sunday 29 April by MUJAO spokesman Adnan Abu Walid Sahraoui during an exchange with AFP. Sahraoui said that negotiations with Algiers had broken down and that the lives of the Algerians were in danger.

This reversal comes after a MUJAO spokesman had told AFP that “we have agreed (together with the Islamist group Ansar Dine) to the release of the seven people arrested on Algerian soil [i.e. the Algerian consulate] in Gao.” Ansar al-Din is led by Iyad ag Aghaly has been closely linked with the DRS since at least 2003. This message was followed by a statement from Algeria's foreign minister saying that the seven were in good health, that Algerian authorities were in contact with the kidnappers, and that "we expect this will soon bear fruit".

The circumstances of the original abduction and the subsequent 'negotiations' are highly suspicious. Not only is the abducted Consul believed to be a DRS Colonel, but all the groups associated with the abduction and subsequent negotiations are known to have leaders linked with the DRS.

Some sources in Algeria believe that the situation is being manipulated by Algeria to provide for the justification, if necessary, of Algerian military intervention in Mali.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt will need nearly 50% more Nile water by 2050

According to experts at Egypt's National Planning Institute (NPI), Egypt will need nearly 50% more Nile water by 2050 to cater for an estimated population of 150 million people.

Fadya Abdel-Salam, director of the NPI told Al Ahram that Egypt will require an extra 21 billion cubic metres of water per year to meet the needs of industry, agriculture and households in 40 years' time.

Egypt's current entitlement under the 1959 treaty on allocation of Nile waters of 55.5 bcm of the river's total annual flow of around 84 bcm is under challenge from upstream states, notably Ethiopia which is planning a series of dams for hydroelectric power generation and for irrigation.

The planner said that if Egypt's current share of the Nile remains the same, by 2050 the allocation per head of population will be about 400 cubic metres - well below the global water poverty index of 1,000 cubic metres. Egypt gets almost all its water from the Nile. About 85% is for agriculture and the remainder split between domestic and industrial use.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya's institutions under pressure as elections draw closer

There is continuing disintegration of Libya's institutions as the elections come closer and pressure grows for as many of the electorate as possible to participate in the ballot.

On paper the spread of support for regional semi-autonomy is a damaging departure for those who wish for a simple majority to settle the issue across the country. Most of the support, however, for the federalists remains in the hands of the people of the east and in one or two other enclaves. Those who would not contemplate the division of the national territory merely to satisfy discrete groups and other dissenters will remain strongly in support of a unitary power base. Fortunately there is just about sufficient backing for a parliamentary or Islamist solution within the new constitution to give some strength of belief in the likelihood of a national vote without a federal component.

The strains produced by the confrontation of political parties and individuals taking part in the elections will produce a great deal of tension which could, at time, be violent. Mustafa Abdel Jalil has the ability to keep the aims of the National Transitional Council (NTC) strictly on target but, if he fails in this, then flash points of considerable proportions will exist.

An immediate threat to the NTC is the persistence of the militia groups who are still heavily armed and assertive. They have the potential to disrupt events surrounding the election and the regime itself is powerless to stop them.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Azazi pours fuel on the fire in PDP's North-South divide

The National Security Adviser (NSA), Gen Andrew Owoye Azazi (rtd), is in hot water over recent public statements arguing that the lack of internal democracy in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is at the root of the increasing threat posed by Boko Haram. Azazi, who made the claim at the South-South Economic Summit organised by the South-South Governors during the past week, stated: “PDP got it wrong from the beginning, from the onset by saying Mr A can rule, Mr B cannot rule...according to PDP's convention, rules and regulations and not according to the constitution and that created the climate for what has manifest itself, this way [sic]”.

Azazi also implied that certain elements within the party, disgruntled over President Jonathan's succession, led to the escalation of the Boko Haram violence. It may be recalled that in the politically tense days leading up to the PDP's selection of Jonathan as its candidate for the April 2011 presidential elections, there had been “threats” from some aggrieved quarters that, if Jonathan emerged as head of state, the country would be made ungovernable. This was a response to the widespread northern views that Jonathan's emergence was against the interests of the North and that the PDP's 'zoning' arrangement meant that a Northerner ought to be president from 2007-2015.

Azazi pointed to an October 2010 statement which was credited to Lawal Kaita, a prominent member of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) - one of the foremost Northern socio-political groups - proclaiming that "anything short of a Northern President is tantamount to stealing our presidency. Jonathan has to go and he will go”.

Azazi went on to state that the Boko Haram threat did not escalate to the point it is at now until after the 2011 general elections. He traced the escalation in its activities to the deadly suppression of riots in the North in the aftermath of the polls.

During a visit to the bombed offices of This Day on 26 April, the President was asked what he thought about the NSA's comments. He stated that it was possible that the NSA was misinterpreted. Jonathan is also reported to have demanded a full transcript of the NSA's statements.

The party has already refuting Azazi's claims with the PDP National Publicity Secretary Olisa Metuh berating him for making them. Reports have claimed that the President has since been under immense pressure to sack Azazi.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Yemen: Patronage and tribes

Nadwa al-Dawsari has produced an excellent report on the tribal system for the Carnegie Endowment, Tribal Governance and Stability in Yemen*. She shows how, in the absence of an effective state, tribes look after their own affairs and how when the government moved out of parts of Yemen in 2011 tribes co-operated to cope. They also have acted as mediators to prevent disputes escalating in areas contested by Al-Huthi and Islah-backed tribes. She also throws new light on how tribal actors, not the armed forces, prevented militants from Ansar al-Shariah seizing large parts of Rada'a earlier this year and then negotiated a settlement. It appears that Tariq al-Dhabi, the leader, lost his life when he lost the protection of the tribes after he breached the agreement.

The Saleh system developed over 33 years was based on co-opting local leaders – usually tribal – and providing them in exchange for support and loyalty with access to government resources, whether in the form, of cash, jobs, contracts or favours. Many tribal leaders received direct subsidies. It was all fed by oil income, at least until recently. Al-Dawsari describes how some tribal leaders, brought into the patronage system, have moved to Sana'a to play in national politics and business but cut themselves off from tribal roots, undermining their standing – and, when the money runs out, their influence. The 2012 budget allocated YR13 billion for payments to tribal shaikhs – although the prime minister says the figure will be cut drastically.

There havem been demonstrations calling for an end to these payments. He may find this difficult to implement. Al-Dawsari's conclusion is addressed to the international community. “Evidence about the role performed by tribes in Yemen challenges two major assumptions: that Yemen is a lawless country and that tribes and the tribal system undermine stability and state building. On the contrary, in a country like Yemen, where the state is weak, the tribal system — especially tribal conflict resolution mechanisms — can help promote national reconciliation, stability, and even state building. As the United Nations and the international community try to help Yemen in its critical transition and state-building process, policymakers and practitioners need to explore ways in which the traditional system can complement and strengthen this process.”

What she does not discuss is how the patronage system will evolve under President Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi and perhaps eventually a more democratic regime. For the moment, the state subsidies will continue to flow, as will those from Saudi Arabia as well as people such as Sadiq and Hamid al-Ahmar, who have their own sources and networks of patronage.

*http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/04/24/tribal-governance-and-stability-in-yemen

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates