Libya's institutions under pressure as elections draw closer

There is continuing disintegration of Libya's institutions as the elections come closer and pressure grows for as many of the electorate as possible to participate in the ballot.

On paper the spread of support for regional semi-autonomy is a damaging departure for those who wish for a simple majority to settle the issue across the country. Most of the support, however, for the federalists remains in the hands of the people of the east and in one or two other enclaves. Those who would not contemplate the division of the national territory merely to satisfy discrete groups and other dissenters will remain strongly in support of a unitary power base. Fortunately there is just about sufficient backing for a parliamentary or Islamist solution within the new constitution to give some strength of belief in the likelihood of a national vote without a federal component.

The strains produced by the confrontation of political parties and individuals taking part in the elections will produce a great deal of tension which could, at time, be violent. Mustafa Abdel Jalil has the ability to keep the aims of the National Transitional Council (NTC) strictly on target but, if he fails in this, then flash points of considerable proportions will exist.

An immediate threat to the NTC is the persistence of the militia groups who are still heavily armed and assertive. They have the potential to disrupt events surrounding the election and the regime itself is powerless to stop them.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya: ICC demands the handover of Saif al-Islam Qadhafi

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has rebuffed Libya's request to potstone the handover of Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's son Saif al-Islam Qadhafi. The deceased leader's son is being held captive in a secret location by a militia from the town of Zintan.

The ICC has ruled that Libya must prepare to hand over Saif al-Islam to the war crimes court at The Hague forthwith. He is wanted in relation to violent suppression of demonstrations during the Libyan unrest. Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC), however, has said it wants to try Saif al-Islam on Libyan soil.

In a bid to delay the handover to The Hague, Libya has questioned the admissibility of the case but, according to the ICC, failed to provide the necessary evidence. The court issued an arrest warrant for Saif al-Islam – as well as his father and the former intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi – in June 2011.

Last month, Senussi was arrested in Mauritania, and Tripoli is also adamant that it wants to try him in Libya. But according to the ICC the UN Security Council resolution obliges Libya to co-operate with The Hague and hand over the men.

Sources: AP, Retuers, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya: New National General Congress

The Libyan Higher National Electoral Commission (LHNEC) was assembled from those representatives chosen by people in the regions in order to set in motion the machinery for the elections in June. The LHNEC was sworn in on 13 February, and the way is now open for the electoral laws passed by the NTC to be put into effect.

The constitutional changes awaited in Libya are scheduled to begin on 17 February when, for three days, there will be selection of committee members from the LHNEC who will review the proposed new constitution, determine the electoral rules and set the constituencies. It is expected that some 200 constituencies will be established on the basis of population size and surface area.

The designation of constituencies will cause some hard bargaining given the highly polarised imbalance between the thinly populated interior and the congested north.

Following that, the country goes forward to the June elections with the promise of a new democracy within a new constitution which will establish the newly elected National General Congress. At this stage, the National Transitional Council (NTC) and all other non-elected organisations will cease to exist.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya: Clashes between rival factions leave seven dead

According to numerous reports, seven people have been killed in confrontations between rival factions in the coastal city of Zawiya. Rival groups have been fighting for an area previously controlled by Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi.

The National Transitional Council (NTC) has said that the conflict has been resolved, however, many are concerned about the country's stability. Libya is replete with weapons and highly armed groups, who fought in the rebellion against Qadhafi's 40 year rule.

Interim leader Mustafa Abdul-Jalil said the NTC had brought together the elders from the feuding areas in order to resolve the conflict. Speaking about the issue on Sunday 13th November he said: "I want to assure the Libyan people that everything is under control."

Despite reassurances, witnesses claim that fighting in some areas is still ongoing. According to various reports, trouble flared up on Thursday 10th Novemenr when fighters from Warshefana set up a checkpoint on a highway near Zawiya, challenging other fighters from the city.

Jalil said the trouble had been started by "young men behaving irresponsibly" and that the NTC had established a committee to address the grievances of both sides. NTC leaders have said they cannot quickly disarm the various factions across the country.

Sources: BBC News, WST, AP

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya: A mass grave found within the grounds of Abu Salim prison

According to Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) a mass grave thought to contain up to 1,2700 human bodies has been found in the country's capital city of Tripoli. It is believed that the remains are of prisoners killed by security troops in 1996 in the Abu Salim prison.

The protests against Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi, who ruled Libya for 42 years, began as a demand to release the lawyer who represented the families of the prisoners.

NTC said it unearthed the site, a desert field scattered with bone fragments within the grounds of the Abu Salim prison, after questioning prison guards who had worked there when the prisoners were killed after protesting against their conditions.

It has been reported that several family members have visited the site, where excavations are set to begin shortly. Up to now, little has been known about the circumstance in which the prisoners died.

A few eyewitnesses spoke to the BBC about the fact that those killed were executed in their cells by grenades and sustained gunfire after a protest. Officials in the new government say they will need foreign forensic help to determine the circumstances of their deaths.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya: Rebels making their way into Brega

It has emerged that Libyan rebels are fighting Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's troops in the eastern town of Brega. The rebels have reportedly been making their way to the oil town for a couple of days, despite substantial artillery fire from Qadhafi's forces occupying the town, 750km east of Tripoli.

Arab Times quoted an official in the rebel National Transitional Council, Abdulrahman Busm, as saying: “The news coming from there is there is a street war going on between Gaddafi troops and the rebels, and 127 are wounded from our side.”

Another spokesman for the rebels, Mohammed Zawi, was quoted by AFP news agency as saying: "Some small groups have made it inside, but we do not control the whole [town] yet."

Seizure of Brega, home to one of Libya's biggest oil facilities, would mark a major development for the rebels who have been locked in a political stalemate with pro Qadhafi supporters since 17th February.

AFP also reported that three rebel fighters were killed and 96 wounded in Brega on Sunday 17th July, bringing the rebel death toll since the fighting commence to 15 dead and 274 wounded.

In recent days, NATO airplanes have been targeting Qadhafi's forces near Brega and have reportedly hit a military storage facility containing tanks, armoured personnel carriers and ammunition in Tripoli's eastern outskirts early on Sunday.

A day prior to the airstrikes, Qadhafi made a speech describing the rebels as worthless traitors and denying allegations that he is seeking to negotiate a way out of the crisis. His televised address followed the declaration that the US, the West and some Arab nations, now recognise the rebel leadership as the legitimate government of Libya.

Sources: BBC News, Dawn, Arab Times

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.