Nigeria: Boko Haram claims responsibility for This Day bombings

Islamist group Boko Haram has claimed responsibility for last week's bombings of This Day newspaper offices. The group posted a video on YouTube, saying it was responsible for the attacks. It is estimated that seven people died during the bombings, one of which took place in Abuja and the other in the northern city of Kaduna.

A voice-over on the film, which shows the suicide blast in Abuja, threatens further attacks against Nigerian media as retribution for crimes against Islam. In the video, Boko Haram said that This Day newspaper was attacked in relation to the Miss World beauty pageant held in Kaduna in November 2002. Riots ensued after an article mentioning the beauty contest and the Prophet Muhammad was deemed blasphemous.

In the last 20 months, Boko Haram militants have targeted government buildings, churches and other social institutions, killing innocent civilians. The group is predominantly active in northern Nigeria.

Last year, the group also attacked UN headquarters in Abuja. Boko Haram aims to overthrow the government and establish Islamic law across Nigeria. In the north-eastern city of Maiduguri, where the militants have their headquarters, residents have named the group Boko Haram, meaning “Western education is forbidden".

The BBC quotes the voice-over from the video as saying: “We attacked This Day because we will never forget or forgive anyone who abused our prophet." The message adds that Boko Haram will also target several other Nigerian newspapers and some foreign broadcasters, warning others that they will be "on the verge of joining this list if they are not careful". The group also claimed other recent attacks in the northern city of Kano and north-eastern Gombe state. It said they would continue to attack universities as "the government has now resorted to arresting our wives and children and also demolishing our houses".

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

Libya: NTC finds running of the state an expensive operation

The National Transitional Council (NTC) is finding that the running of the state is an acrimonious and expensive operation. For example, as not in previous issues of Libya Politics & Security, the costs of providing overseas health care to both those wounded fighters and the wider Libyan population has caused major recriminations. In recent weeks a bitter atmosphere has arisen from the decision of the NTC chairman, Mustafa Abel Jalil, to maintain his own power base by keeping the government representatives unchanged. It now seems that there will be no definitive alteration in the formation of the government until in the end of the year – i.e. six months after the June 2012 election. In this situation of uncertainty Abel Jalil is attempting to keep the NTC going as a functioning entity in the face of severe criticism of both his own conduct and the policies espoused by his ministers.

The political implications of the unexciting short term prospects for the Libyan economy are important because it means that there will be very limited available cash to pay for the inevitable crises that will arise during the rest of the year in the health service, the provision of schools, and repair of war damage. The NTC will therefore be under great strain to maintain itself in power sufficiently well in order to guide the country into an era of relative democracy following the elections in June. That said - they are succeeding in making some progress.

During its first year in power and, if the wide-ranging expertise of the Libyan private sector is mobilised in peaceful conditions and foreign interest in the potential market that Libya represents is sustained, a modest rate of growth of 3%-5% in real terms may be achieved in the near future, It is also possible that a number of state and private sector companies will survive alongside the well organised oil sector which is currently defying its sceptics return to pre-war levels of oil production much quicker than most analysts thought possible. If, however, the IOCs decide that their Libya operations are likely to remain far less profitable than other exploration hotspots then Libya would be in a tight corner. Without the IOCs assistance Libyan oil production probably could not be maintained at current levels and the country would once again become a peripheral marginal producer.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Ghana: Cedi remains under pressure

The Ghana cedi fell further against the US dollar which has led to illiquidity on the interbank market with hardly any activity late last week. As reported in Ghana Politics & Security last week the cedi has declined steadily over the past few months, falling more than 11% this year, because of strong demand for the US$, in most part from local manufacturing and telecommunications firms. Three weeks ago the Bank of Ghana raised its policy rate to 14.5% in an attempt to stem the cedi's slide and also slackening the banks' net open position requirements - the difference between their assets and liabilities in a particular currency - to boost their foreign exchange flows to the market.

The Central Bank announced further measures on Sunday 29 April to help stabilise the cedi. In order to strengthen the government's monetary policy and restore stability and transparency in the foreign exchange market the Bank had decided to reintroduce 30, 60 and 270-day bills; a requirement that banks hold the obligatory 9% reserve requirement on domestic and foreign deposit liabilities in cedis only; and the requirement that banks provide 100% cedi cover for vostro balances. The requirements came into effect on 1 May.

The continuation of the depreciation of the cedi against the dollar could force the government to increase fuel prices, because Ghana imports both crude and refined oil. National Petroleum Authority (NPA) CEO Alex Mould said: “If we don't pass it on to consumers then government will have to forego some projects… We have also experienced crude oil prices above US$120 per barrel… and also the exchange rate has increased and we should have experienced an increase in petrol prices of over 20%-22%, but that did not happen because the government decided to subsidise it.”

According to Databank's Africa Quarterly Report, which ranks the performance of Africa's stock markets in terms of returns to investors in dollars, Accra had Africa's third worst performing market for the first quarter. The Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) ranked third after Mauritius and Zambia.

Databank's head of research, Nii Ampa-Sowa, said that poor market performance was due to the cedi's decline and told Joy FM that “As a global investor you come in with dollars which you would convert to cedis and then you would invest here. But if you were to take your money out of the Ghanaian market it would mean that you would sell the cedi denominated investment and then repatriate that money. But in taking it outside the country, you would have to change back the cedi into dollars. Meanwhile, in dollar terms the money has actually declined.”

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Cavendish joins Omega

Nigeria's Cavendish Petroleum has entered into a partnership with Omega Energy of Columbia for the execution of a well drilling work programme in Cavendish's oil mining lease (OML) 110 (formerly oil prospecting licence 453).

Sources reveal that the partners are seeking to contract China's Sinopec to undertake the engineering works for the 11-well drilling and workover programmes in OML 110's Obe field.

OML 110 has deep- and shallow-water fields, with a proven reserve of 500 million barrels and capacity to produce about 120,000 b/d from its OBE 4 and OBE 5 wells. Only the shallow waters have thus far been exploited. Obe field commenced production to FPSO Crystal Sea in December 1999. The prospects are indeed sanguine for the deep water they are now set to explore.

OML 110 was awarded to the prominent Mai Deribe family of Borno by military head of state General Sani Abacha in July 1996.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Iraq's fugitive Vice President charged with several murders

According to Iraqi court officials, Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi has been charged with several murders, including those of six judges. The fugitive vice president, who is currently in the Kurdish region of the country, is not expected to attend his trial on Thursday 3 May.

Al-Hashemi fled Iraq in December 2011, following allegations that he was implicated in death squads. Hashemi, a senior Sunni figure in the Shi'a-dominated Iraqi parliament, has accused Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of driving sectarianism.

On Monday 30 April, Iraq's Supreme Judiciary Council said Hashemi and some of his bodyguards had been accused of a series of killings.

A spokesman for the Council Abdul-Sattar al-Birqdar said: "There are many crimes that Hashemi and his guards are accused of and there were confessions obtained, including on the assassinations of six judges, mostly from Baghdad."

Early in April al-Hashemi accused al-Maliki of wanting to "regenerate the sectarian strife". He added that Iraq was at a crossroads and it was necessary to take urgent action to prevent it from dividing along ethnic ruptures.

Al-Hashemi has denied connection with death squads and said Iraq's security services had tortured his bodyguards to obtain false confessions to back up claims that he had ordered killings and bombings.

Al-Hashemi absconded after Baghdad issued a warrant for his arrest on 19 December, accusing him of arranging bomb attacks and assassinating Shi'a officials. His leaving has underlined the mounting tensions within Iraq's newly formed government.

The seemingly noticeable divide between Sunni-Shi'a communities is raising fears among some that sectarian fissures may result in a nationwide conflict, with Sunni groups already accusing al-Maliki of taking an authoritarian approach to leading the government.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, WSJ

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

Nigeria: Chad concerned about Boko Haram threat

Chad's President Idriss Deby has called for a creation of a regional task force to tackle the Islamist militant group Boko Haram. The group works manly in northern Nigeria, but Deby said its activities are raising concerns about its threat to its neighbours around Lake Chad.

Chad's leader noted: “Our basin is exposed to insecurity because of the permanent threat posed by Boko Haram."

Nigeria has been struggling to curtail Boko Haram activities for months. The group wants to overthrow the government and impose Islamic law across the country.

On Monday 30 April, a suicide attack on a police station in Taraba state, which borders Cameroon, killed at least 11 people. No-one has claimed responsibility for the bombing, but Boko Haram has carried out numerous similar attacks across northern Nigeria, targeting government offices, churches, mosques and local amenities.

Speaking about Boko Haram activities, Deby said: “I am demanding the creation of a joint deterrence force. We have to make this decision here today," President Deby told a meeting of the Lake Chad Basin Commission, which includes Chad, Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria and the Central African Republic…"If we don't eradicate them, we won't be capable of saving our Lake Chad."

Some experts believe the group is making connections with the al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb, which has mainly been active in the Sahara region.

It is estimated that since Boko Haram first came to prominence in 2009 it has claimed more than 1,000 lives, both Muslim and Christian. Hundreds of its own followers were killed when they attacked a police stations in Maiduguri, northern Nigeria. Its founder, Mohammed Yusuf, was arrested but died in police custody.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

Iraq: New government is business as usual

On 5 April the Kurdish parliament finally approved new Prime Minister Nejervan Barzani's government. It has been a long wait, especially given that it was always clear right from the start that Nejervan, who is Kurdish President Masoud Barzani's nephew, would be the man to take the job.

Much of the delay was related to Nejervan's desire to bring some of the opposition into the government. However, despite his best efforts, he was ultimately unable to convince the big players in the opposition to join him. The main opposition parties, including Goran, the Islamic Union of Kurdistan and the Jama'a Al-Islamiya, which together hold 35 of the 111 seats in the legislative body, all boycotted the parliamentary session to endorse the new government.

Predictably enough, the 19-member government that was sworn in represented the usual combination of the two main parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), along with a smattering of smaller groupings including the Kurdistan Communist Party and the Kurdistan Islamic Movement, as well as representatives from the Assyrian and Turkomen minorities. There were a number of new faces in the cabinet, mostly from the KDP, which retained only two of its ministers from the last government. These were Ali Sindi, who stayed on as planning minister, and Ashti Hourami who held on to natural resources. Hourami's retention was hardly a surprise. He is known to be extremely close to Massoud Barzani and, by extension, to Nejervan. Indeed, the KDP forced former prime minister Barham Saleh to retain Hourami against his wishes when he formed his government in 2009.

Hourami is generally deemed to be doing a good job, a view consolidated by his ability to attract ExxonMobil to the region, as well as by reports that French company Total is also interested in investing in the KRG. Given his hawkish attitude towards the development of an independent Kurdish energy sector, Hourami's retention is also a clear indication that Erbil has no intention of bowing to Baghdad's demands in this sphere.

The other ministries in the KDP's hands include education (Asmat Mohamed Khalid), agriculture and water resources (Serwan Baban), justice (Sherwan Haidary), interior (Abdul Karim Sultan Sinjari) and municipalities and tourism (Dilshad Shahab) – a total of six plus the premiership. The PUK took seven ministries, including the post of deputy prime minister, which it gets automatically, given that the prime minister is from the KDP.

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates