An Iranian plan to irrigate its desert cities using water from the Caspian has provoked concern in Russia and has raised questions about Iranian compliance with the Caspian community's self-proclaimed emphasis on equitable usage. The $1.5 billion project was announced by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the northern city of Sari on 16 April. It would involve a desalination plant on the Caspian coast, from which the water would be pumped 140km south to the city of Semnan, which lies east of Tehran.

Around 200 million cubic metres of water would be transferred through the 500km pipeline each year under the first phase – subsequent phases will expand the volume of water supplied to inland cities to 500mcm. Officially, the other Caspian governments have yet to comment – all use desalination plants of their own, albeit on a smaller scale than Iran's new project. However, some Russian commentators drew parallels with the Aral Sea in Central Asia, where decades of Soviet over-irrigation led to an environmental catastrophe and a drastic shrinking of the size of the sea.

The Caspian's ecosystem is already widely recognised as being extremely fragile, and a decline in the water volume – made worse by declining inflows from the Volga river – could have serious effects across the Caspian. This is especially significant given Tehran's repeated insistence that any activity (ie, a Trans-Caspian Pipeline) that could damage the Caspian ecosystem must only be taken with the consent of all five littoral states. If a Caspian summit does get under way this year (see page 8), the other leaders may have some tough questions for Ahmadinejad.

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

New Trans-Caspian Pipeline talks finish

The latest round of talks on a Trans-Caspian pipeline has concluded, with no concrete results. The negotiations - between the European Commission, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan - took place in Brussels at the beginning of the month but produced no outcome beyond a confirmation that the talks occurred “in a constructive atmosphere” and “are progressing well”, according to sources speaking to local media. Conclusions “will be found when the time is right”, said a source.

The Turkmen state media service only gave a bland statement on Turkmenistan's “responsible approach to international cooperation in the energy sector." A new discussion will be held next month, again to discuss technical aspects of the pipeline.

Without a political discussion which tackles the elephant in the room – Russian and Iranian opposition – the original June deadline for the completion of talks looks increasingly unlikely.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Turkmenistan plans naval patrols on disputed Caspian border

Turkmenistan, the Caspian's most cautious and least well-defended state, has announced plans to boost its navy and patrol its maritime borders as questions loom over the future of the Caspian sea.

Speaking at a naval shipyard where two new missile patrol boats have recently been delivered, President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov said that Turkmenistan “needs ships to patrol its maritime borders, to maintain their security and counter negative phenomena and modern challenges”, while stressing that Turkmenistan's naval doctrine was purely defensive in nature.

Although Turkmenistan's naval capabilities are weak and its political will doubtful, Berdimuhamedov's speech was a clear statement that the country is keen to defend its waters amid growing tension over the division of the Caspian.

The EU's decision to open negotiations with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on a Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) last month, to bring Central Asian gas west to Europe, has been strongly opposed by Russia and Iran. The Caspian's two strongest states argue that a TCP would cause serious environmental damage and cannot be agreed without the consent of all five littoral countries.

Their real objection, however, is that a TCP would permit an avenue for Central Asian gas to reach Europe without crossing their territory, weakening their regional influence.

In addition, the status of Caspian borders remains contested while the littoral states debate how large a share each should take. This has not stopped exploration of oil and gas deposits, but it has created zones of uncertainty. A recent Wikileaks cable revealed that in 2009, Iran moved an oil rig into disputed waters between it and Azerbaijan, prompting fears of conflict in Baku. Turkmenistan also fears Iranian intimidation.

The country's naval forces are ill-equipped to patrol its borders or defend its territory. It has a handful of rusting Soviet patrol boats operating from dilapidated facilities. The government has been busy purchasing more, however, including some from Ukraine and others from Russia and Turkey. The new missile patrol boats inspected by Berdimuhamedov were built by a joint Russian-Turkmen venture, with most of the work done by Russian firms.

Although the government wants the new navy to be completed by 2015, along with port facilities and a naval academy, Turkmenistan will continue to lag behind its neighbours. Its stated intention to patrol its borders, however, suggests that it is taking its position in the Caspian very seriously.

Sources; Turkmenistan.ru, Eurasianet

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

Iran, Russia oppose cross-border

Iran and Russia have both announced their opposition to a pipeline across the Caspian Sea, which was backed by the EU last week as a means to bring Caspian gas to Europe.

A trans-Caspian pipeline, running west from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan along the Caspian seabed, has been under discussion for years, but has never got off the ground due to a lack of commercial imperative and political will. An ongoing dispute between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan over their maritime border, and associated gas and oil fields, has also stymied progress.

On 13th September, however, the EU's Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger announced that the EU was would start negotiating a legally binding treaty between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to build a trans-Caspian pipeline. Europe, said Oettinger, “is now speaking with one voice” – previous efforts to coordinate the 'Southern Corridor' to bring Caspian gas to Europe have been hamstrung by competing European agendas and approaches. The new mandate will empower it to arrange the legal and commercial requirements of a trans-Caspian system.

The pipeline would enable Turkmen gas to reach Europe without crossing Russian or Iranian soil. The EU is keen to reduce its energy dependence on Russia and avoid politically problematic Iran, whilst Turkmenistan is looking to diversify its energy export routes.

Tehran and Moscow have reacted angrily to the EU's intervention. Iran has stated that it opposes the project on ecological and legal grounds. Russia expressed its regret, and warned that the project did not account for “the actually existing international legal and geopolitical situation in the Caspian Basin today”.

The reference to geopolitics is significant, as it indicates the main reason for Russian and Iranian opposition (notwithstanding ecological protestations) – that a Caspian pipeline would enable Central Asian gas to avoid their territory, reducing their political and commercial leverage.

The other objection is that the legal status of the Caspian Sea, including the littoral states' maritime boundaries, is still unclear. Although most of the states have simply got on with developing gas and oil fields in their presumed sectors, the exact boundaries and the right of states to undertake major projects – like a subsea pipeline – is still legally unclear.

It is likely that Russia and Iran will apply a range of legal and political pressures to stop the pipeline from going ahead. The EU's internal problems and lack of focus towards the Caspian region may make it an unreliable patron for Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and unable to push the pipeline through against Russian and Iranian opposition.

Sources: Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.