Nigeria: New timetable for the polls

Nigeria's four-yearly federal and state election programme has got off to a chaotic start, with voting for the National Assembly elections, which were scheduled for Saturday 2nd April, being called off after voting had actually commenced in many areas, including Lagos and Ibadan in the south-west and Kano and Jigawa in the north.

Voters were still at the polling stations getting their voter accreditation when news began to filter through that the elections had been cancelled. Initially, even the electoral officials at the polling units waved the news aside as mere rumours or propaganda, claiming that it was designed to persuade the voters to leave the polling units so that “the riggers” could have their way.

The reality of the situation became clear at about 12.40 hours on the same day when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega, addressed the country and explained that the elections had to be postponed throughout Nigeria because of “logistical problems”.

The INEC then went on to release a new timetable for the polls:

•On Saturday 2nd it postponed the National Assembly poll for Monday 4th April but then the following day it delayed them further until Saturday 9th April (i.e tomorrow)

•The presidential polls were then delayed from 9th until the 16th April

•The gubernatorial and State Assembly elections were then rescheduled from 16th to Tuesday 26th April, after the Easter weekend.

The delay has ramifications for the government's legislative programme, including the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB). The National Assembly recess will be extended from the planned 19th April to the end of April. Procedural issues mean that the PIB deliberations may not now happen until shortly ahead of the scheduled end of the legislative term on the 29th May when the government's term formally ends.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

PIB advances, but further delays likely

The House of Representatives' Joint Committee responsible for review of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) has reportedly agreed on a draft of the Bill, which will now be submitted to the chamber of the House for a third reading on 15th March.

The Joint Committee, led by the Committee on Petroleum Upstream, met on 10th March to approve the draft following a compromise on deepwater fiscals was hammered out with the technical committee of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

While there has been a recent increase in pressure from the presidency to secure the PIB's ratification prior to the elections scheduled for April, it remains highly uncertain that the PIB will be passed in this term, because the legislature is scheduled to go into recess on 16th March. We understand that additional drafting is required, before at least a week's consideration in committee and several days of line-by-line debate in the House. It therefore now seems likely that the final version of the PIB will be passed after the April elections but before the official end of the current government in May.

According to sources in Abuja, members of President Goodluck Jonathan's Campaign Committee are increasingly concerned that the incumbent may not secure victory in the first round of the presidential election on 9th April. If these concerns prove prescient, then the ratification of the PIB – in whatever form – could be delayed by a number of months.

Moreover, if the Bill's ratification is not undertaken before the end of the current term, more substantial reformulation may be required, with new legislators likely to push for modifications in an effort assert their control over the legislative process.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Minister claims 'year-end' completion of bid round and PIB

Minister of Petroleum Resources Diezani Allison-Madueke has insisted that a new oil licensing round will be conducted before the end of this year. She gave this assurance at a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria, last week. However, she did not comment on the reasons why the bid round she had previously announced would be conducted in August this year was not held as scheduled.

The Petroleum Minister also added that the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) will definitely be signed into law before the end of this year, as it was in its final stages at the National Assembly. She also stated that Nigeria's current oil production level is about 1.9 million barrels per day and that there were no plans to request an increase of the country's OPEC production quota.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates