Mauritania: AQIM reinforcements coming from Algeria

 

Timbuktu is now even more firmly in the control of the Islamists (mostly AQIM), as well as the entire region surrounding the town. Most of the Islamists' reinforcements have come from Algeria. Agence France Press (AFP), quoting Mali security sources, reported several dozen 'white-skinned' Algerians (i.e. Arabs) arriving in Timbuktu on the weekend of 24-25 November. Our own field contacts who gained access to AQIM camps confirmed that dozens had crossed over from Algeria and that French was being spoken, suggesting that some of them may have come from France (see below). As the Algerian border is heavily guarded and officially 'closed', this suggests that Algeria is lying to the outside world about its border security and/or sending its own Islamists to support AQIM.

Both are true. Algeria's DRS has been controlling the leadership and supporting AQIM since it was established in the Sahara-Sahel after the end of 2006. The AQIM leader, Abdelhamid Abou Zaid, is currently in command of the Islamist forces around Timbuktu. He is accompanied by Iyad ag Ghaly, leader of Ansar al-Din. Both men have long been associated with Algeria's DRS.

Although we have always known about the DRS links with and support for AQIM and Ansar al-Din, we did not know the strength of this support until we were able to access the camps and reconnoitre the Timbuktu region this week. This alters the military configuration of the whole region.

For more news and expert analysis about Mauritania, please see Mauritania Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria warns against intervention

 

President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's security advisor, Kalel Rezzag Bara, speaking on local national radio on 10 November, warned that military intervention in Mali was currently a useless step as it would only worsen the situation. He said that a peaceful settlement of the Malian crisis was still possible and that “It's necessary to reach an acceptable agreement to avoid the spill over of the Malian conflict into neighbouring nations."

Bara also said that the international community should distinguish between Tuareg rebels, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), who carry political claims and terror groups belonging to al-Qa'ida organisation and drug trafficking gangs. Interestingly, as part of Algeria's attempt to muddy the waters Bara included the Islamist groups Ansar al-Din alongside the MNLA when the former is in fact largely a creation of the DRS. Its leader, Iyad ag Ghaly has been a close associated of the DRS since the 1980s and is even spoken of in some quarters as “Algeria's man in Mali”.

Ansar al-Din, created in December 2011, is playing the lead role amongst the Islamists. The key question is whether Algeria still has effective control over it and whether the international community will believe its recent more conciliatory remarks. Kamel Bara is doing his bit in trying to get the international community to see Ansar al-Din as more allied to the Tuareg rebels than AQIM which has not been the case. Ansar al-Din's more conciliatory moves are part of Algeria's desperate moves to achieve a peaceful settlement and so prevent military intervention.

We should add that Ansar al-Din - along with AQIM and the DRS – heads the list in the International Criminal Court's (ICC) preliminary investigations into war crimes in northern Mali.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates