Egypt: MB's Freedom and Justice Party consulting other parties about Islamic bonds

The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party is consulting other parties about introducing sukuk or Islamic bonds. Issuance has been held up because no laws cover these Sharia-compliant instruments. The FJP says there is strong demand for them.

According to a Reuters report, the Salafist al-Nour party has indicated it would not oppose the proposed US$4.8 billion dollar loan from the IMF, despite the interest payments demanded which it does not approve of. Tarek Shaalan, head of the party's economic committee, was quoted by Reuters as saying that they believe the government can take out such loans if there is no other option. For its part, the IMF said it would send another mission to Egypt in the coming weeks to discuss the loan agreement which it hoped would be concluded by the end of the year.

The cabinet has set up a committee to look at how each and every one of 185 state-owned companies was sold off to ensure no financial irregularities.

Egypt's Energy Minister Osama Kamal went to Qatar to discuss a gas import deal - at a time when Egypt is planning to resume gas exports to Jordan. Egypt's shortage is in LPG for domestic cooking.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Opposition merger talks run into trouble

 

Merger talks between the main opposition parties in the country - Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN); ANPP; and Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) – are still ongoing. Sources have revealed, however, that ANPP is divided over the current talks with CPC. The ANPP's chairman, Ogbonnaya Onu, is reportedly in favour of the merger. The new chairman of the party's Board of Trustees, former Borno State governor Ali Modu Sheriff, is said to be opposed to the merger with CPC.

Sheriff defeated the ANPP's 2011 presidential candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau, to clinch the chairmanship and this has apparently upset Shekarau. In a bid to calm the latter's ruffled feathers, Bashir Tofa, who is from Shekarau's home state of Kano, is said to have been offered the position of chair of ANPP's merger committee. Tofa has, however, declined because of Shekarau and Yobe State's governor, Ibrahim Geidam, was chosen instead. Meanwhile, it appears that former Sokoto State governor, Attahiru Bafarawa, who is an ANPP chieftain, may be tilting in favour of merging with CPC. He recently visited CPC leader, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, at his home in Kaduna State, ostensibly to discuss the disunity in the North.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya: Cross border security problems continue

Unrest in Libya continues to have implications for its Western neighbours. The borders with both Algeria and Tunisia have long been primary smuggling routes. In the past, it was mainly drugs, cigarettes and illegal migrants being smuggled north, via Libya, to the Mediterranean coast but, since the revolution, it also includes Libyan weapons being smuggled out of the country to the Sahel.

The Algerian security forces have greatly increased their cross border surveillance activities in an attempt to reduce the smuggling of weapons. A recent operation apprehended a small group, including one Libyan, which was carrying 32 weapons and 14,000 rounds of ammunition stolen from Libyan army supplies. Unsurprisingly, the majority of the smuggled material comes from the Qadhafi era. Special Algerian units have been formed to supervise movements in this area and sophisticated night-time surveillance equipment is now in use.

Meanwhile, the difficulties which arose at the Salloum crossing from Egypt into Libya on 24 September have been temporarily resolved. A long tailback of traffic, held up by the Libyans, was only allowed through after threats of reprisals by the Egyptian security agents. The border remains open but the situation remains unstable.

The Egyptian authorities have arrested members of a Cairo-based gang which was forging visas for entry into Libya and other fake documentation. The report suggests that the visas were selling for LD2000 (US$1600). For would-be economic migrants the illegal transfer from Egypt into Libya could provide opportunities for work there or for onward passage into Europe via Italy or Malta. This journey is said to be undertaken by several thousand individuals each year and the latest arrests noted above will do little to stem the flow.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Morocco: Demonstrations against the oath of allegiance to the King

To celebrate the reigning monarch's accession, an annual ceremony is held during which all the country's leading politicians and dignitaries pay allegiance to the King. The bayaâ, as the event is called, is actually a ceremony resurrected by the late Hassan II as a public symbol of the nation's unity around its Muslim ruling house.

There have, however, been increasing murmurs of dissatisfaction with this ceremony because it requires citizens (or subjects) to bow and kiss the King's hand. People on the political left see this act as humiliating for free citizens, while conservative Islamists see it as inappropriate as it places an illegitimate authority figure between the individual believer and God.

In May, Ahmed Raïssouni, a key figure in the Mouvement pour l'unicité et la réforme (MUR), called for an end to the baise-main, the kissing of the royal hand. In an interview with the Al Massae newspaper in late August, Raïssouni criticised the Moroccan State's instrumentalisation of religion to secure its position.

On Tuesday 21 August, the date of this year's ceremony, a small group of Mouvement du 20-Février activists demonstrated in Rabat against the oath of allegiance. Neither the Palace nor the government commented which is an indication that the movement is running out of political steam.

For more news and expert analysis about Morocco, please see Morocco Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

 

A drought in the cocoa- growing regions could cause budding pods to wither and harm the 2012-13 harvest.

“The situation is bad, farmers are agitated,” a farmer from the western region told Bloomberg on 19 September. “We have not had proper rains from June to September, the small pods are dying.” Ghana recorded an unprecedented one million metric tonne harvest in the 2010-2011 season, but the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) lowered its prediction for the 2011-2012 harvest to 900,000 tonnes, and its prediction for the 2012-2013 season, which begins in October, to 800,000 tonnes, because of the concerns over bad weather.

Meteorologist Charles York said that the rainy season, which lasts from April to August, saw much less rain than usual and southern Ghana has a 60% chance of below-normal rains for the rest of the year.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya: Oil sector news

 

This week, prominence has been given to a speech made at an oil conference in early September by OMV's Senior Vice President Dr David Latin. He indicated that the Libyan oil industry was capable of making a rapid recovery and suggested that the replacement of damaged plant and equipment had been achieved with extreme success. He quoted official Libyan sources in showing that oil production had recovered very rapidly to over 1.5 million b/d and had stabilised at virtually pre-war levels.

At the same time, however, with the political environment still evolving after the Arab Spring in a number of countries including Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, newly appointed officials are still finding their feet. Dr Latin stressed the importance of rapid decision-making by the governments as being one of the key challenges faced by OMV and other IOCs in the midst of all the ambiguity. In addition, he also stressed that security has to be managed particularly carefully in Libya and Tunisia. Libya is currently unable to take best advantage of market conditions because it lacks the underpinning of technical and financial strength.

Latin looked forward to a pick-up in business in the next six months and foresaw offshore oil and gas becoming of increasing interest to foreign companies. Offshore exploration obviously has less of the security and stakeholder issues that affect onshore operations. So far, however, Libya's new offshore exploration has, with the exception of Hess' gas discovery, been both extremely expensive and singularly unsuccessful in recent years.

As noted last week, on 4 September there was a gas leak and minor fire at the Amal oilfield in the eastern Sirte basin. Harouge Oil – the joint venture between NOC and Suncor Energy's Petro-Canada subsidiary – operates the field. The fire injured four people but was quickly extinguished, although crude output was disrupted.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Iran: Private sector exports first oil consignment

The Iranian private sector was reported in early September to have delivered the first consignment of crude oil via non-Iranian tankers to foreign buyers. Hassan Khosrojerdi, the head of the union of Iranian exporters of oil derivatives, said a private company had sold the consignment to an international client, emphasising that no discounts has been given over the trade.

The payment was used to settle Iran's debts. No cash was received from the client. And in mid-September some Iranian private-sector companies reached deals to sell two consignments, comprising four million barrels of oil, to international clients. The crude will be delivered in the Persian Gulf.

Khosrojerdi nevertheless complained that the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) is refusing to deliver on its promise to finalise the legal framework pertaining to private sector sales of crude. This development shows that Iran still has the ability to sell its oil, even under the current sanctions regime. Nevertheless, the volumes through such clandestine channels cannot be large, and it is not clear how long Iran will be able to maintain this strategy.

The US Treasury and related institutions in the United States are trying to close all loopholes through which Iran can funnel its crucial petrodollars home.

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates