Commemoration of Morocco's retaking of Rio de Oro in 1979

On 14 August, Morocco commemorated the 24th anniversary of the full re-establishment of its territorial integrity. It was on 14 August 1979 that Mauritania withdrew its claim to sovereignty over Rio de Oro (Oued Eddahab in Arabic), the southernmost region of the former colony of the Spanish Sahara. The Moroccan State media stressed the importance of the event on national news, showing historic footage of the blue-robed Sahrawi tribal chiefs assembled in the Mechouar (Palace compound) in Rabat, paying their oath of allegiance to Hassan II.

 

The development of the Saharan provinces and handling pressures from the Polisario movement is a difficult dossier which the Palace continues to follow closely. In his speech from the throne in 2009, Mohamed VI underlined that no compromises with would-be liberation movements were possible: the former Spanish colony would remain firmly Moroccan; to quote, “With full responsibility, We affirm that there is no place for ambiguity and duplicity: a citizen is either Moroccan or he is not ... One is either a patriot or a traitor. There is no middle ground between patriotism and betrayal.”

For more news and expert analysis about Morocco, please see Morocco Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Libya: Rumours of coups d'état

 

With the country in a state of near-anarchy, it is unsurprising that talk of coups d'état is becoming rife. Pretty much everyone, from the Islamists to the powerful Zintan militia, has come in for mention. But one name that appeared earlier this month may prove to be ominous. It is that of the Libya Free Officers Movement which probably takes its name from Colonel Qadhafi's original Free Officers Movement which mounted the 1 September 1969 coup. It, in turn, took its name from the clandestine group of Egyptian junior officers, led by Gamal Abdel Nasser, who mounted the successful 1952 revolution.

 

It was first mentioned in Algeria's El Kabar newspaper. Algeria gave strong backing to Qadhafi during the 2011 revolution and has been the major 'counter-revolutionary' force in North Africa since the Arab Spring. There are rumours circulating that its DRS may have a hand in attempting to destabilise both the Tunisian and Libyan post-2011 governments.

 

El Kabar, which is invariably associated with 'disinformation', reported that it had received an exclusive statement by the Libya Free Officers Movement claiming that it was seeking to “activate 12 military regions and mobilise 14 military battalions, in addition to the air and defence forces … to shake the throne of falsehood and urge proud souls to reject the humiliation and injustice that have inflicted their country, as the forces of oppression and darkness have trampled on its pride.” For the moment, however, we regard the article as another example of Algerian trouble-making.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focusand Libya Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Mauritania: Administrative and technical problems

Communications Minister Ould Hormah told the press that the government expected a strong turnout and that the elections would use advanced technology. He was specifically referring to biometric voter registration which, he said, would be deployed to ensure the elections were "transparent and credible".

The extent of the government's administrative and technological preparedness for the elections is not at all clear. While the government has, for some time, been making bland statements about the electoral role and biometric registration being at an advanced stage, there is no sign of hard evidence to back up the claim. Indeed, the COD certainly believes otherwise. It issued a statement on Sunday 4 August saying, “Most of the Mauritanian people haven't received identification cards, while the rest haven't been registered yet and will not be registered anytime soon because the necessary circumstances aren't available.”

There are still two months before the election and, as the recent election in neighbouring Mali has shown, a lot can be done in the last few weeks. But that could be difficult to achieve in Mauritania, largely because it will not have the same level of help from Western countries, notably from France and the UN.

If there are administrative and voter registration problems, then the situation would appear to be even worse among Mauritanian expatriate communities abroad, especially in France where the signs are that the majority are still not registered.

For more news and expert analysis about Mauritania, please see Mauritania Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Ghana: IFC plans to issue as much as US$1 billion in Naira bonds

 

The IFC plans to issue as much as US$1 billion in Naira bonds, and indicates future plans for its further issuance of local currency bonds including one for Ghana In the months following major dollar Eurobond issuances from Ghana (at a higher interest rate cost or coupon) and Nigeria (at a lower coupon), the World Bank's International Finance Corporation (IFC) subsidiary is set to issue a series of local currency bonds to assist local infrastructure projects and small and medium sized businesses with little access to funding - having earlier this year (February) issued a relatively small (equivalent to US$75 million) Naira bond at around 10% yield for such purposes.

 

For example the IFC plans to issue up to the equivalent of US$1 billion of Naira bonds to assist, among other things, Nigeria's power industry which, relative to Ghana for all its energy problems, continues to be in disarray with an significant adverse impact on what should be a Nigerian locomotive for growth in West Africa…

 

It should be noted that, in a continent of legion investment opportunities, Nigeria accounts for almost one third of the IFC's 2013 investment commitments of around US$5.3 billion. This is a several-fold increase (for Nigeria and for Africa) over the past decade or so and is a trend also reflected in growing intra-African investment and remittances to the continent. While any planned Ghana issuance would be much smaller the IFC is indeed contemplating a Ghana local currency bond among others.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Libya: Licences for foreign exchange issued by CBL

The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) issued licences for foreign exchange bureaux on 21 July for the first time in the country's history. Demand for the licences was high, with over 480 applications nationwide. In Tripoli and Benghazi a public draw for the heavily over-subscribed licences had to be organised. This marks the first time non-bank operators have been allowed to exchange foreign currency which was the preserve of Libya's major banks under the Qadhafi regime. For years the exchange rates on foreign currencies were heavily manipulated by the state, which restricted their availability in the market and awarded more favourable rates to associates of the government, as well as state-owned enterprises. This cultivated a huge black market in Libya, leading to the unregulated circulation of many currencies and, in particular, the US dollar.

Despite the issuance of licences, the CBL is still largely in control of the exchange of foreign currency. Banks still require proof of entry of goods into Libya, in the shape of a pro forma invoice, for large transfers of $100,000 and above to be transferred from one account to another. Once the goods arrive, they are only released by customs when proof of the transfer of this approved sum is provided by the individual.

Any large transfers that were not for the purchase of imported goods would usually have been conducted on the black market – formalised and reliable as it is after decades of existence. Although this measure will go some way to curbing transactions in this market, time will tell if the remaining restrictions on transfer limits by the CBL may not also have to be lifted and further autonomy given to the newly established forex bureaux.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focusand Libya Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

RND blocking Ahmed Ouyahia's return

Further to our report (Algeria Politics & Security - 26.07.13) of former prime minister Ahmed Ouyahia's recent meeting with DRS boss General Mohamed Mediène to discuss his possible candidacy for the presidency, members of his National Democratic Rally (RND) party have set up a National Salvation Front to bar his return to the political limelight.

 

According to reports in the daily Echorouk, hundreds, if not thousands, of militants belonging to the RND from at least 30 wilayas have threatened to block the holding of the party's upcoming congress if the current interim Secretary General, Abdelkader Bensalah, does not take the necessary measures to sideline for good those supporters of former Secretary General Ahmed Ouyahia who have been accused of fomenting chaos and disunity within the party.

 

Hafi Mohamed Hatem, a member of the so-called RND Salvation Front, or Bureau as he called it, from the Algiers wilaya, was quoted mby Echorouk as saying that Ouyahia's legacy had left the RND party in a pitiful shambles across all 48 wilayas of the country. Hatem also indicated that a National Salvation Front was being set up across 30 wilayas to act as a powerful lobbying force to stop the return of Ouyahia's supporters to the upper echelons of the RND and so save the party from what he described as 'dismemberment and implosion”.

 

Hatem also explained that the other main objective of this National RND Salvation Front was to do everything possible to preclude Ouyahia's political comeback. As we reported two weeks ago, there is pressure from his supporters, which may include the DRS, to stand as a candidate for the upcoming 2014 presidential elections under the RND banner, despite his resignation from the party earlier this year.

 

(Note: Ouyahia resigned from the RND on 3 January 2013 amid much acrimony and rancour. There was major opposition to him from the party's rank and file for his overbearing behaviour and divide-and rule policy.)

 

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Egypt: Polarisation leads to an escalation of casual violence

There have been 80 deaths in the last week in clashes between security forces and protesters and between pro- and anti-Morsi supporters in Cairo, Alexandria, Mansoura and other cities.

 

Both sides blame the other for causing the violence. The Muslim Brotherhood protesters say their movement is peaceful. It appears to be but there are well-documented exceptions. In the current febrile atmosphere these get widely circulated and feed into the rhetoric of the Brotherhood's enemies.

 

The army also rejected that it was responsible for the deaths in July, despite eyewitness accounts to the contrary.

 

Polarisation could affect the army. There is some concern within it that some soldiers might reject orders to fire against protesters. The Brotherhood has been calling on soldiers to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with it. Many ordinary Egyptian soldiers work an eight-hour day and return home in the evening and are thus not immune to all manner of political influences.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates