Mauritania: Administrative and technical problems

Communications Minister Ould Hormah told the press that the government expected a strong turnout and that the elections would use advanced technology. He was specifically referring to biometric voter registration which, he said, would be deployed to ensure the elections were "transparent and credible".

The extent of the government's administrative and technological preparedness for the elections is not at all clear. While the government has, for some time, been making bland statements about the electoral role and biometric registration being at an advanced stage, there is no sign of hard evidence to back up the claim. Indeed, the COD certainly believes otherwise. It issued a statement on Sunday 4 August saying, “Most of the Mauritanian people haven't received identification cards, while the rest haven't been registered yet and will not be registered anytime soon because the necessary circumstances aren't available.”

There are still two months before the election and, as the recent election in neighbouring Mali has shown, a lot can be done in the last few weeks. But that could be difficult to achieve in Mauritania, largely because it will not have the same level of help from Western countries, notably from France and the UN.

If there are administrative and voter registration problems, then the situation would appear to be even worse among Mauritanian expatriate communities abroad, especially in France where the signs are that the majority are still not registered.

For more news and expert analysis about Mauritania, please see Mauritania Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Minister: "All Mauritanians will be enrolled"

 

Speaking on 25 July at a hotel in Kaédi (Gorgol wilaya), the centre of civil unrest earlier in the month, the Minister of the Interior and Decentralisation, Mohamed Ould Boilil, said that all eligible Mauritanians would be enrolled on the electoral role. He was in Kaédi to discuss wilaya problems with local officials, including the Wali of Gorgol, Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, following the unrest that hit the town earlier in the month.

 

During the course of his address, the minister took the opportunity to speak about the elections to be held in October under CENI's supervision. He explained how the ONS was conducting the census under the supervision of CENI and that, of the 1,700,000 Mauritanians of voting age, some 1,600,000 ID cards had already been delivered to the enrolment centres. Ould Boilil went on to explain how the state had provided CENI with all the means to carry out credible and fair elections and to prevent the sort of electoral fraud which characterised the country before 2009.

 

Editorial Note: The fact that the government has passed a law earlier this month enabling the military to vote in their barracks (Mauritania Politics & Security - 16.07.13) is indicative of how the ballot is likely to be manipulated by the government.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Mauritania, please see Mauritania Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Mauritania becomes 'meeting ground' for Azawad fighters

 

There have been several, albeit mostly vague, reports and local chatter about how Mauritania is becoming a meeting place for most of the increasing number of groups and factions contesting the future of the Azawad region of Mali.

In addition to the almost 100,000 refugees from Mali still in Mauritania (see below), representatives of Tuareg and Arab communities and groups from Azawad, representatives and members of many of the terrorist/Islamist organisations and Azawadian political movements, as well as politically influential Malians, are using Mauritania as a safe haven in which to meet and discuss their strategies for the future of both Azawad and Mali as a whole.

For the moment, this situation has not yet threatened instability in Mauritania. But it certainly has the potential to do so, not simply because of the distinct possibility of renewed fighting or at least skirmishing between these many groups, but also because there are signs that many of the Islamists that have been driven out of Mali by the Franco-Chadian forces may seek a new haven in Mauritania.

This is a threat faced by many other countries in the region, notably Niger, Burkina Faso and Libya, but it is probably greatest in Mauritania because of its many sympathetic Salafist strands and the links that Mauritania already has with these Islamists groups (notably AQIM and MUJAO).

Two names which have been mentioned within some concern within this context are Henoune Ould Ali and Amar Ould Hamaha. Ould Ali, from a small Arab tribe linked to the Berabich, is a wealthy trader believed to be a significant financier of MUJAO. Ould Hamaha, generally known as “Red Beard” in the Malian press, was prominent in both AQIM and MUJAO, and believed to be responsible for many of the atrocities committed by the Islamists in Timbuktu before creating Ansar Shari'a.

For more news and expert analysis about Mauritania, please see Mauritania Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Mauritania: Opposition boycotts independence celebrations

 

The COD boycotted the 52nd anniversary celebrations of Mauritania's independence from France on Wednesday 28 November, and instead protested against President Abdel Aziz's regime. The opposition group issued a statement saying they were "refus[ing] to take part in a ceremony attended by the president", whose resignation they have demanded in regular protests since 2011. The COD attempted to hold a parallel celebration but couldn't get authorisation.

The alternative 'independence anniversary celebration' planned by the COD for Wednesday 5 December was blocked by the security forces. Despite having obtained permission to hold a demonstration in Place Ibn Abbass, it was stopped by the police who blocked off the square prior to the arrival of the demonstrators. It is believed they feared the COD was planning a 'sit-in' although the latter claimed that their planned use of tents was merely to give shelter from the cold. The demonstrators withdrew peacefully.

Nevertheless, with the president again out of the country, the COD launched another attack on him, accusing him of “misrepresenting the facts” with regard to almost everything about his government.

For more news and expert analysis about Mauritania, please see Mauritania Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Mauritania: AQIM reinforcements coming from Algeria

 

Timbuktu is now even more firmly in the control of the Islamists (mostly AQIM), as well as the entire region surrounding the town. Most of the Islamists' reinforcements have come from Algeria. Agence France Press (AFP), quoting Mali security sources, reported several dozen 'white-skinned' Algerians (i.e. Arabs) arriving in Timbuktu on the weekend of 24-25 November. Our own field contacts who gained access to AQIM camps confirmed that dozens had crossed over from Algeria and that French was being spoken, suggesting that some of them may have come from France (see below). As the Algerian border is heavily guarded and officially 'closed', this suggests that Algeria is lying to the outside world about its border security and/or sending its own Islamists to support AQIM.

Both are true. Algeria's DRS has been controlling the leadership and supporting AQIM since it was established in the Sahara-Sahel after the end of 2006. The AQIM leader, Abdelhamid Abou Zaid, is currently in command of the Islamist forces around Timbuktu. He is accompanied by Iyad ag Ghaly, leader of Ansar al-Din. Both men have long been associated with Algeria's DRS.

Although we have always known about the DRS links with and support for AQIM and Ansar al-Din, we did not know the strength of this support until we were able to access the camps and reconnoitre the Timbuktu region this week. This alters the military configuration of the whole region.

For more news and expert analysis about Mauritania, please see Mauritania Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Mauritania: What did happen to the President?

Mystery still surrounds what really did happen to the President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz when he was shot on the evening of 13 October while returning to Nouakchott after spending the weekend out of town.
 

The government's claim that it was an accident lacked credibility, not only because of its absurdity, but because the government versions were so varied and contradictory. In Mauritania Politics & Security – 30.10.12 we did, however, say that we were increasingly more inclined towards the 'accident' version, and we are now even more certain that this is true. The President was almost certainly shot by a military checkpoint guard or guards taken unawares by his passing.

Within hours of the incident, there were rumours that the President was having an affair and had been out of town for the weekend with a mistress. This version of events has been gathering pace, at least among those with knowledge of the President's private life and with access to what took place at and immediately after the accident. This explains why the Present was travelling ahead of his security detail and possibly why he was driving at such high speed.

We have also received information that other people travelling with him in his vehicle were killed in the shooting. Their identities have not been revealed. It is, however, strongly rumoured that one of those killed may have been his mistress. This would explain the early reports, subsequently denied, of bodies being taken to Nouakchott hospital. We have been told that at least two people may have been killed.

With the President's immediate circle trying to prevent leaks of such a scandal, it is hardly surprising that the official spokespersons kept tripping over themselves with one bizarre version of the accident after another. So, although the details of the story may have been pulled from a number of hats, it appears increasingly as if the fundamental substance of the 'accident' story may have been true.

For more news and expert analysis about Mauritania, please see Mauritania Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Mauritania's refugee crisis

There are warnings of a growing crisis and security threat emerging from the increasing number of refugees who have fled from Mali into Mauritania. The number of refugees in the main Mbere camp in north-east Mauritania, 60km from the Mali border, has risen to an estimated 75,000. Food shortages are becoming critical and the health situation is worsening.

Humanitarian relief organisations, notably UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), the Mauritanian Commissariat of Food Security and the International Fund for Food Security, along with UNICEF and Doctors Without Borders, are being stretched, especially as the number of refugees continues to increase and as the influx into the camps of poor families from the Mauritanian cities of Bassiknou and Fassale also grows. According to figures from journalists in the camps last week, about 100 deaths have so far been recorded, mostly among the elderly, women and children, while more than 1,700 people are suffering from severe to moderate malnutrition.

If relief efforts are not accelerated, food shortages will be exacerbated by the rainy season and blocked roads.

The US-based UPS delivery company flew some 13 tonnes of UNHCR aid items into Nouakchott from Copenhagen (Denmark) on 3 June for distribution in the Mbere camp, as well as vital UNICEF and World Food Programme (WFP) supplies. UPS, which is a UNHCR corporate partner, is covering all transport costs.

However, the message from the aid agencies is that more substantial funding is urgently needed. Otherwise, the situation in the camps is likely to become a humanitarian disaster, with serious implications for Mauritania.

Malnutrition problems are not confined to the Malian refugee camps. The WFP announced on 5 June that it was launching a Canadian-financed distribution programme of food supplements to 30,000 six-to-23-month old children in the Gorgol and Brakna regions, two of Mauritania's 'priority' zones for intervention by the WFP and the Mauritanian government.

For more news and expert analysis about Mauritania, please see Mauritania Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates