IMF evaluates Cameroon's economy

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation met top government officials on Monday 12 November to review the country's economic evolution. Led by its mission head, Mario de Zamaroczy, the delegation comes six months after the last visit during which the IMF made various propositions: asking Cameroon to adjust some aspects of its economic policies to ensure growth. The members met Minister of Finance Alamine Ousmane Mey and Minister of Economy, Planning and Regional Planning Emmanuel Nganou Djoumessi.

 

During the next two weeks, the IMF will examine the execution of Cameroon's 2012 state budget for the period January to October. It will also examine the prospects of the country's 2013 budget, the balance of payments, the banking and financial sectors, the state of the economy and what the government has done to improve on it.

 

After his meeting with the ministers, Zamaroczy told reporters: “The cluster of propositions we made during our last visit to the government was aimed at seeing how the government was progressing with economic growth, pare down the financial sector, increase returns and better manage spending.” According to Ousamane Mey, the economy “is on a good footing”, growth was above 5% and inflation has stabilised at below 3%.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Cameroon, please see Cameroon Politics & Security.

 

© 2012 Menas Associates

Mauritania: What did happen to the President?

Mystery still surrounds what really did happen to the President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz when he was shot on the evening of 13 October while returning to Nouakchott after spending the weekend out of town.
 

The government's claim that it was an accident lacked credibility, not only because of its absurdity, but because the government versions were so varied and contradictory. In Mauritania Politics & Security – 30.10.12 we did, however, say that we were increasingly more inclined towards the 'accident' version, and we are now even more certain that this is true. The President was almost certainly shot by a military checkpoint guard or guards taken unawares by his passing.

Within hours of the incident, there were rumours that the President was having an affair and had been out of town for the weekend with a mistress. This version of events has been gathering pace, at least among those with knowledge of the President's private life and with access to what took place at and immediately after the accident. This explains why the Present was travelling ahead of his security detail and possibly why he was driving at such high speed.

We have also received information that other people travelling with him in his vehicle were killed in the shooting. Their identities have not been revealed. It is, however, strongly rumoured that one of those killed may have been his mistress. This would explain the early reports, subsequently denied, of bodies being taken to Nouakchott hospital. We have been told that at least two people may have been killed.

With the President's immediate circle trying to prevent leaks of such a scandal, it is hardly surprising that the official spokespersons kept tripping over themselves with one bizarre version of the accident after another. So, although the details of the story may have been pulled from a number of hats, it appears increasingly as if the fundamental substance of the 'accident' story may have been true.

For more news and expert analysis about Mauritania, please see Mauritania Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Long-lasting Euro crisis harmful to Surinamese economy

In a reaction to Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel's statement that the current Eurozone economic crisis will continue for five more years, the tax lawyer, Robby Makka, has said that if it does so, it will harm the Surinamese economy. He expects that a prolonged crisis will lead to a decline in tourism, fewer investors and a decrease in money repatriated from the Netherlands to relatives in Suriname.

 

Makka hopes that the new Dutch government, sworn in by the Queen on Monday 5 November, would give a more positive perspective about the economy. Unfortunately, on the day after Prime Minister Mark Rutte's second government took office, it immediately became clear that prolonged cutbacks and a decline in purchasing power are being considered in the Netherlands.

 

Many Surinamese relatives in Holland transfer foreign currency every month to their family in Suriname, or ship boxes with relief supplies back home. However, unlike the shrinking or stagnating European economies, Suriname's resource-based economy is growing; there is a growing tendency among expatriate Surinamese to re-emigrate to their motherland to try their luck there.

For more news and expert analysis about Suriname, please see Suriname Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: Local elections campaign under way

 

Campaigning for the 29 November local elections got under way last Sunday (4 November).

Fifty-two political parties and independent candidates will contest the 1,541-seat Municipal Assemblies (APC) and the 48-seat Provincial Assemblies (APW). Campaigning will end three days before polling day, in accordance with the electoral laws.

According to Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal, the government will mobilise “all necessary means” to make these elections a success.

A total of 109,177 lists of candidates for the APCs and 615 for the APWs have been filed, while 48,000 polling stations have been set up. According to official government sources, 20,673,818 people have been registered to vote, with 520,128 newly-registered voters.

On the previous Friday, the National Commission for Monitoring Local Elections (CNSEL) dispatched its staff to supervise the installation of local committees across the country's 48 wilayas. The CNSEL is composed of one representative from each of the 52 registered parties and one from the independent lists.

Public enthusiasm for the elections currently appears to be at an all-time low, which is saying something for Algeria, and the initial signs are that the elections could be largely ignored.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Catholic Cardinal wants Biya to resign and foresees social implosion in Cameroon

 

Cameroon's chief Catholic prelate, Archbishop Emeritus of the Douala archdiocese, Cardinal Christian Tumi expressed concern about Biya's continuing stay in power after 30 years and declared in the last week of October that social implosion was imminent in Cameroon because of the deplorable conditions under which most of the country's 20 million inhabitants live.

“Before the [October 2011 presidential] elections, I said I had told somebody [Biya], that if I were Paul Biya, I would resign, because for more than 30 years in power and at the age of 80, I would love to see a change. I don't see any change happening in Cameroon by 2035, the year the government claims will see the country transformed into an emerging economy,” the fearless and ascetically-critical Tumi, who originates from the English-speaking North-West Region told the authoritative bi-weekly “The Post” newspaper in an exclusive interview on 19 October.

“But for Cameroon, I don't know whether the people have the freedom or the power to change their leaders. They should have the freedom to choose their leaders. Since independence, I have never seen any transparent elections in Cameroon, even when we had that one party system,” Cardinal Christian Tumi said, forecasting that the country was heading towards social implosion. “Maybe we are sitting on gun powder that might explode one day. Imagine the case where someone is sick and there is no way the person can have himself treated because there is no means, while there are others riding in very luxurious cars, which is seen to have come from doubtful origin,” Tumi questioned.

For more news and expert analysis about Cameroon, please see Cameroon Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: North–South Petroleum farm-out

 

North–South Petroleum, the owner of oil prospectinglicence (OPL) 326, is looking to farm out a 30 per cent stake in the block. Meanwhile, a behind-the-scenes drama over the management of the company has been revealed. The chair used to be Senator Abu Ibrahim and the company was managed by one Geoffrey C. Oherne as managing director. Oherne who is trained as a lawyer and is a close friend of former Rivers State governor Peter Odili , seems to have had a serious falling-out with the suspected 'closet' owners of the company, one of whom has been named as former head of state General Abdulsalami Abubakar .

The breach is said to have occurred about nine months ago. As part of the episode, Oherne was apparently arrested by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and turned for help to his contacts in the presidency but was told there was nothing they could do. He then attempted to reach out to Minister for Petroleum Resources Diezani Allison-Madueke , who in turn contacted EFCC chair Ibrahim Lamorde on his behalf. Lamorde informed them, however, that he could to nothing to assist Oherne in his predicament as the order for his arrest had 'come from above.'

The company is now said to be run by Chris Okoli , and Abubakar may have sold his stake in OPL 326 for $50 million to Okoli and two others – Bello Isa Bayero and an unnamed Odugua – after kicking Oherne out. Industry sources have revealed that OPL 326 has very low prospects.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Iraq: Tribes muscle in

 

Some of the difficulties that confront companies operating in Iraq's energy sector came to light this month when the head of UAE drilling company Piling Tech revealed to the Al-Alam newspaper some of the challenges his company faces in going about its work. The head of the company, which is contracted by Russian firm Lukoil, explained how he was under sustained pressure from tribal elements in the south that regularly demand payments and other favours.

According to the Piling Tech head, his company had been forced to pay ID50 million to the heads of tribes in the area where the company operates before it had even started work. Such demands are reportedly commonplace. However, this was not the end of it. These tribes began coming back demanding more money while other tribes started allying themselves with the local tribes, enabling them to insist that the land the company is drilling belongs to them and they should also be paid. The Piling Tech head described these tribes as acting like “organised mercenaries”.

In addition, the tribes are forcing these international companies to take on their members and to provide them with jobs. As the head of the drilling company explained, “We were forced to take on unskilled workers from the tribes and to give them jobs that they don't understand.”

One of the main problems is that these tribes appear to be working in conjunction with, or at least with the blessing of, the security protection teams set up to provide security at the oil sites. According to the Piling Tech boss, “The police in charge of the protection gave the green light to the tribes to take money from the companies. When they [the tribes] come to us they feel strong and have no fear of the security protection teams.”

He also revealed that some of his engineers and other employees had felt so threatened by the behaviour of some tribes that they had quit their posts and left the country.

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates