WikiLeaks implicates Nigeria's political elite in oil theft

At the end of last week, WikiLeaks released a US diplomatic cable saying certain members of Nigeria's political elite as well as soldiers have profited from large-scale oil theft in the Niger Delta.

The November 2009 cable sent by then US Consul-General Donna M. Blair, stated: "Oil theft, widely referred to as 'illegal bunkering' in Nigeria, represents significant economic activity with serious ramifications for Nigeria's economy, security, democracy and environment."

The cable went on: "No other, major oil-producing country ... loses as much revenue from illicit oil bunkering as Nigeria, largely because the political elite, militants, and communities profit from such operations."

Oil bunkering remains widespread, with little known about the shadowy process of how the illegally obtained oil, invariably by drilling into pipelines, is stored or distributed. The cable suggested that a Joint Military Task Force (JTF) charged with quelling militancy in the Delta at the time was also involved.

The cable concluded: "Various experts have estimated the volume of oil theft at between 100,000 and 250,000 barrels per day or as much as 91 million barrels per year. This amounts to billions of dollars in lost revenue for the Nigerian treasury every year."

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Nigeria: The government keen to pass the PIB before June

The House and Senate have now adjourned until 19th April when they will have one more day in session before departing for the Easter break and only retuning on Thursday 28th April.

The government will therefore redouble its efforts to get the controversial Petroleum Industries Bill (PIB) passed in the last two weeks of May before the official handover of power on 29th May – assuming that there is a clear victor in the first round of voting in the presidential election.

There is, however, considerable doubt as to whether the government will be successful and a lot that could happen in the intervening period. The Bill was put down on the House order paper last week but was not raised in time and there was no call of a vote before the House moved quickly to adjourn.

The House speaker, Dimeji Bankole who was implicated in the recent Wikileaks embarrassment - is reticent and reclusive and is unwilling to preside over major legislation at the moment. There is a realisation that that there will probably have to be amendments on the floor of thee House and consequently the PIB can not be rushed. If the government tries to get the PIB though in May it will find a resistant Senate and a post-election House. While harmonisation between the various versions of the bill may be possible this would only be the case if the Senate backs down.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Yemen's radioactive storage facility was left unguarded for a week

According to a US cable, released by WikiLeaks, a storage facility holding Yemen's radioactive material was left without security for up to a week, after its only security guard was fired on 30th December 2009.

The cable, published by the Guardian newspaper, was sent by a Yemeni official to the US homeland security department and other security authorities as well as the US Secretary of State. The cable made its way to the US shortly after last year's failed Christmas day bomb attack targeting a Detroit bound plane.

The plot was masterminded by a Nigerian born Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, believed to have been radicalised in Yemen. Abdulmutallab attempted to bring down the airliner over Detroit, but was intercepted.

The cable also revealed that the single closed circuit security camera monitoring the storage facility was broken and never fixed. The Yemeni government official, whose name was removed from the documents, expressed concern about the unsecured state of a National Atomic Energy Commission facility (NAEC). According to the cable, the official called on the US to persuade the Yemeni government to "remove all materials from the country until they can be better secured, or immediately improve security measures at the NAEC facility".

A couple of days prior to the January 9th 2009 cable, Yemeni foreign minister Abu Bakr al-Qirbi told the US ambassador in Yemen that, "no radioactive material was currently stored in Sana'a and that all "radioactive waste was shipped to Syria".

Sources: Aljazeera, The Telegraph, Guardian

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

President Jonathan vows to ensure a fair election

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan has said that he will ensure that the country's election poll, set to take place in April next year, will be credible and free from interference. He said he would uphold his duty as the head of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by ensuring that the vote is fair and added “I will accept no less than what I have called for in The Republic of Côte d'Ivoire in Nigeria during and after the 2011 elections which are free and fair elections that are seen to be so by the average man."

As the head of ECOWAS Jonathan called on all the parties involved in the Cote D'Ivoire electoral process, to respect proper procedure and ensure it was conducted according to the rules set out by the Independent Electoral Commission.

Speaking about the forthcoming Nigerian elections, Jonathan asked all Nigerians to be steadfast and work with him to ensure a transparent electoral process in 2011. He also mentioned the recently stolen new voter registration equipment, which went missing from Murtala Muhammed international airport in Lagos.

"I specifically want to mention the stolen Direct Data Capture machines. I am glad that the police have lived up to their responsibilities and have made arrests and recovery of items. This is laudable and should be supported by everyone," Jonathan said.

He also added that his administration has taken steps to ensure that breaking the law will not be tolerated. Jonathan assured Nigeria that the stolen Direct Data Capture equipment has not interfered with the process that will lead to credible elections.

Jonathan finished by saying that the election process will be devoid of the “win at all cost” syndrome and said that “there shall not be any do or die elections… every vote will count and the results will be sacrosanct no matter who wins.”

On Thursday 16th December, twenty of Nigeria's most powerful state governors said they will support Jonathan as the ruling party's candidate in next year's election. Jonathan's decision to run next year has attracted some controversy as the ruling party has a pact which stipulates that power should be rotated between the largely Muslim north and the mostly Christian south every two terms.

A recent cable released by WikiLeaks revealed that Jonathan had doubts about his presidential bid and told US Ambassador Robin Sanders that he would only consider running if he was persuaded to do so. The cable also said that Jonathan was keen to “put into place an electoral structure that will be ready for national elections,” and ensure their transparency.

Source: Africa News, Indepth Africa, Reuters, Vanguard

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

Conspiracy theorist believe the next Egyptian president will be Washington's man

It is widely believed by conspiracy theorists in the Middle East, and there are many, that the next president of Egypt must enjoy the blessing of the US. This is not a view that emerges out of the latest batch of cables from the US embassy in Cairo released by WikiLeaks.

What the cables reveal is the assessment of successive US ambassadors to Egypt that President Mubarak is someone who will not be pushed around on matters of human rights, democratisation or other aspects of how Egypt runs its affairs. And furthermore, that the successive ambassadors do not pretend to know who might be the next president after Mubarak. A number of names are put forward as possibilities: the president's younger son Gamal; the intelligence chief Omar Suleiman; the “charismatic” head of the Arab League, Amr Mousa [this was back in 2007]; or some unknown military man.

It has been said that President Mubarak will not step down but is more likely to die in office.

In addition, the previous US ambassador Frank Ricciardone suggests that the next president, whoever it might be, could have an "initial anti-American tone in his public rhetoric" to win over the Egyptian street."

The conspiracy theorists might be unwilling or unable to take the cables at face value. They will persist in their conviction that the next president of Egypt will be Washington's man. That is certainly not the view of Washington.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Ghana: President Mills fears drug trafficking among staff

A US cable released by WikiLeaks has revealed that Ghana's President John Atta Mills is concerned that elements of his administration are compromised by drug trafficking. In a bid to eliminate his concerns, Mills requested airport drug screening checks for his personal entourage.

The cable in question stated that Mills “made a point of submitting his luggage to a search and required his entire entourage to do the same.” West Africa has become a key transit stop for smuggling cocaine from Latin America into Europe. When Mills took up office in January 2009, he pledged to tackle the problem which has become increasingly paramount.

According to a cable from June 2009, Mills told the US ambassador to Ghana, Donald Teitelbaum, that he knew that "elements of his government are already compromised and that officials at the airport tipped off drug traffickers about operations there".

Several months later a UK customs official, Roland O'Hagan, told US diplomats that Ghana's president wanted his own entourage screened before leaving the country. O'Hagan added that the President wanted his staff to be “checked in the privacy of his suite to avoid any surprises if they are caught carrying drugs.”

The UN drugs agency estimated that around 60 tonnes of cocaine is smuggled through West Africa every year. According to the same cable from June 2009, “President Mills has stated that he is resolute in stopping people from using Ghana as a narcotics transit corridor and will vigorously fight for the total eradication of hard drugs in the country. So far, he has shown a good faith effort.”

Sources: BBC News, Guardian

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.