Egypt in turmoil

President Hosni Mubarak has dashed hopes and confounded dashed hopes and confounded expectations by using a televised address on State television last night to declare he would not budge. In effect, he said he was stepping aside, not down by handing over some unspecified powers to his newly appointed vice president and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman.

The move, or rather lack of one, came at the end of an extraordinary few hours. They began with the issuing of Communiqué Number One from the military command council. The communiqué itself was bland and uninformative:

“The Higher Army Council held a meeting today under Hussein Tantawi the head of the armed forces and minister of defence to discuss the necessary measures and preparations to protect the nation, its gains and the aspirations of the people. The council decided to remain in continuous session to discuss measures that can be taken in this regard.”

Historians of the Arab world, however, will recognise that the first intimation of a coup traditionally is the seizure of the radio station and the broadcast of a communiqué by a group of sometimes unknown army officers.

The army communiqué was followed by statements from the new secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party Hossam Badrawi and the prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, that President Mubarak was going.

The president's decision not to go but to soldier on until elections in September raises questions about the role of the army. There is no disputing that the protestors in Tahrir square feel deeply insulted by the patronising tone adopted by the incumbent president. Essentially, each side is now appealing to the armed forces to forgo its neutrality and take sides in this constitutional impasse. But it is yet unclear whether it will.

The army has now issued a Communiqué Number Two which "confirms the lifting of the state of emergency as soon as the current circumstances end," a pledge that would eradicate a 30-year law that protesters say is used to suppress dissent.

In an interview publicised shortly before the second communiqué, Egypt's leading opposition figure Mohamed El Baradei said the army "has to side with the people".

Speaking about the prospect of some of Mubarak's powers being transferred to Suleiman, El Baradei noted: “The people on the street feel the same way about Suleiman as they feel about Mubarak. He is to them only a mirror image of Mubarak."

We will, of course, keep you informed of any significant developments.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Conspiracy theorist believe the next Egyptian president will be Washington's man

It is widely believed by conspiracy theorists in the Middle East, and there are many, that the next president of Egypt must enjoy the blessing of the US. This is not a view that emerges out of the latest batch of cables from the US embassy in Cairo released by WikiLeaks.

What the cables reveal is the assessment of successive US ambassadors to Egypt that President Mubarak is someone who will not be pushed around on matters of human rights, democratisation or other aspects of how Egypt runs its affairs. And furthermore, that the successive ambassadors do not pretend to know who might be the next president after Mubarak. A number of names are put forward as possibilities: the president's younger son Gamal; the intelligence chief Omar Suleiman; the “charismatic” head of the Arab League, Amr Mousa [this was back in 2007]; or some unknown military man.

It has been said that President Mubarak will not step down but is more likely to die in office.

In addition, the previous US ambassador Frank Ricciardone suggests that the next president, whoever it might be, could have an "initial anti-American tone in his public rhetoric" to win over the Egyptian street."

The conspiracy theorists might be unwilling or unable to take the cables at face value. They will persist in their conviction that the next president of Egypt will be Washington's man. That is certainly not the view of Washington.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Mohamed ElBaradei urges Egypt to boycott election

Former chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, has urged Egyptians to boycott November's parliamentary election, saying it is certain to be rigged by the government. ElBaradei explained that taking part in the election would go against "the national will" to transform Egypt into a democracy.

ElBaradei has not yet said whether he will run for president in 2011. And it is still unclear who will succeed President Mubarak, nor whether Mubarak will seek re-election, but speculation has been mounting and many believe that he will try to install his son, Gamal, in the role if he decides to retire.

Shorty after his return to Egypt, in February, ElBaradei's National Coalition for Change launched a petition calling for constitutional changes and guarantees of free elections. The petition lists seven demands including allowing independents to run for president, and the lifting of the emergency laws that have been in place since 1981.

"We have gathered nearly a million signatures in six months and we can reach up to two to three million more by the end of this year," said ElBaradei on Monday.

In talking about the government ElBaradei said that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) has failed Egypt, and is responsible for rising poverty and illiteracy, and the disregard of human rights.

"When I look at the temple they built, I see a decaying temple, nearly collapsing. It will fall sooner rather than later. I will never enter this temple. What we call for is to bring down this temple in a peaceful civilised manner. If the whole population boycotts the elections totally, it will be in my view the end of the regime," concluded ElBaradei.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.