Ahmed Zewail appeals for help to fund Egypt's reforms

Egypt's most distinguished scientist who won the Nobel Prize for chemistry in 1999, Ahmed Zewail, has appealed for help to fund Egypt's reforms. In an article in the UK's Financial Times, he said that Egypt needed to change not just its leadership but its entire system. Echoing the successive UN-sponsored Human Development reports, he says that what Egypt needs above all is a decent education system.

“The so-called 'Children of Facebook' who fomented the revolution know Egypt was once ahead of South Korea in scientific research and development. They know that in the 30 years Mubarak sat in his palace and Egypt deteriorated, China has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, sent astronauts into space, built mega cities and high-speed trains, and brought its students up to world standards. They ask why Egypt cannot do the same thing.”

He says this will all take time but it is imperative to start now. “Of Egypt's many problems, the three most urgent to address are governance, economy and education. The army's Supreme Council, now the ruling political entity, has to ensure swift political changes. Egypt badly needs national unity and reconciliation. But to take the critical long-term steps to transform society it needs financial support. While Egyptians themselves must fashion the new nation, they need help in rebuilding sustainable institutions. The place to start is with the pivotal project, 'renaissance in education and development', whose acronym is the first command of the Koran: read.”

He is now calling for a global partnership of private and government organisations to establish a fund to finance a revolution in education. This should be directed by a board of trustees from renowned Egyptians and world leaders in cooperation with the Egyptian government.

Such an effort, he believes, would need an initial US$1 billion from private and government sources. “Further funds could then come from other nations and be deployed by the World Bank, the Arab Bank and the Islamic Development Fund. Repudiation of debt will redirect national resources to this and other vital projects.”

The money he asks for does not seem very much. But, he is making his appeal to the donor community at a time when it feels stretched by financial pressures at home.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Some Libyan oil still being exported

One fortunate feature of the present situation in Libya is that some oil is being exported (while petroleum products were successfully imported by the regime) and that, despite the freezing of Libyan financial assets, acute foreign exchange shortages have not yet arisen.

The viability of many of the recently started industries and service sector facilities is, however, questionable because them current complex situation is unlikely to be revolved in the immediate future. There is, nonetheless, potential for the payment in foreign exchange for imported goods and services but this will involve risks for any company breaking international sanctions against the regime.

An agreement approved on 27th April by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) gave permission for the marketing of oil by the rebels using the good offices of Qatar Petroleum and the assistance of Vitol, one of the world's largest independent oil traders.

US Ambassador Gene Cretz welcomed the arrangement and the demonstrably improved American links with the Interim Transitional National Council (ITNC). He talked in terms of co-operation which would open a new phase in relations between Libya and US.

The report from the market in Tripoli is that great caution is being exercised by owners of shares and property and that the market is, by and large, very depressed. Foreign companies entering the Libyan market at this stage must expect very tough trading conditions.

Foreign Minister Abdelati Obaidi was preparing for a major mission to the EU states to take place in the immediate future. This mission has, however, been shelved as a result of the orchestrated attacks by Libyan mobs on the foreign embassies which has dashed hopes for an orderly end to the crisis.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Ghana: The New Patriotic Party tries internal democracy again

As the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) braces itself for an acrimonious primary contest for the party's presidential nomination in the 2012 elections, the opposing New Patriotic Party (NPP) is also organising primary contests to select its parliamentary candidates for the elections. Last year, the NPP held its own presidential primaries which elected Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo Addo as the party's candidate with a massive majority.

The two parties, however, have different internal electoral systems. The NPP has chosen a much more open system of selecting candidates which involves as many as 117,000 delegates, all of whom are established members of the party. They form the basis on the electoral college which chooses candidates and office holders within the party. This system appears to be more open and democratic and less vulnerable to techniques of bribery or intimidation which in the past have been used to influence the choice of candidates. The result seems to be that of an internal democracy and a less competitive and independently-minded party.

By contrast, the NDC has stayed with the old-style party election system and will be choosing its presidential candidate at a special party congress with a much narrower list of delegates than its counterpart.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Mart Resources report encouraging initial test results

Mart Resources and its JV partners in the onshore Umusadege field, Midwestern Oil and Gas Company (operator) and SunTrust Oil Company, have reported encouraging initial results from the first zone tested.

The first test on the UMU-7 well was conducted on the XII(c) sand, a 17 ft oil zone, which flowed at a stabilised rate of 2,459 b/d of 36 API gravity oil through 2 7/8” tubing on a 40/64” choke at a flowing tubing pressure of 180 psi. Basic sediment and water (BS&W) was 15 per cent with a gas–oil ratio of approximately 21 scf per barrel.

Testing of the XIV sand is currently underway, with tests on the X and XVI(a) to follow. Further updates will be provided on these sands once initial testing has been completed.

The UMU-7 well has been completed using a dual-tubing string configuration with the XVI (a) and XIV sands completed in the 3 1/2” tubing string and the XII(c) and X sands completed in the 2 7/8” tubing string. As a result of the technology used, the four zones that have been completed can be opened and closed at any time.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Algeria: The killing of Professor Ahmed Kerroumi

A political activist, Professor Ahmed Kerroumi was found dead on 23rd April. He was a professor at the University of Oran and a member of both the opposition Mouvement Démocratique et Social (MDS) and the Oran section of the CNCD. Kerroumi reportedly disappeared on 19th April and, when his body was found in his MDS office in Oran four days later, reports say thathe had received several head injuries.

Because of his international political connections, his death has received greater prominence in both Algeria and internationally than the authorities might like. Only a few days before his disappearance, Kerroumi had met with the UN's Special Rapporteur and independent expert on the right to freedom of opinion and expression, Frank La Rue, who reports to the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council. He was on an official visit to Algeria between 10-17th April and met with many representatives of civil society, including Kerroumi.

La Rue said: “I insisted on absolute freedom to meet with whomever I considered necessary and requested full protection from the State for all those that met with me during my visit, and especially after the conclusion of the mission.” He said that he was deeply shocked by Kerroumi's killing which, he said “is tragic and unacceptable.” He called on the government to conduct a detailed and independent investigation into the killing to bring those responsible to justice.

So far, the judicial and investigative authorities have singularly failed to make much progress in tracking down Kerroumi's killer or killers. Indeed, as time has gone on, the authorities are coming up with more and more stories that smack of incredibility. They include the suggestion that it was someone trying to steal his car, to some sort of sexual motive, based on the fact that condoms had been found (or placed) in his vicinity.

Kerroumi's killing and the silence and tardiness of the judicial and investigative authorities is gaining traction in the Algerian media. Several prominent daily papers are now commenting on the fact that the silence of the authorities is feeding rumour and suspicion. And, of course, given the regime's track record in political assassinations, more and more suspicion is being directed at the DRS.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

The 2011 general elections in Nigeria finally concluded

The 2011 general elections in Nigeria have finally been concluded with the last round of elections – the gubernatorial elections, the elections into the state houses of assembly and National Assembly elections which had been postponed in certain districts - conducted on the 26th April for most States and on the 28th April for Bauchi and Kaduna states.

The latter were further postponed following the devastating riots that greeted the announcement that President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had been re-elected president ahead of his closest rival, Gen Muhammadu Buhari of the opposition Congress for Progressive Change (CPC).

The gubernatorial elections saw the PDP overwhelming losing what had become its tenuous grip on Nigeria's predominantly Yoruba south-west to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which firmly cemented its position as the region's dominant political party.

As some reports put it the PDP lost to the “rascals” – which was an allusion to Jonathan's alleged comment during one of his south-west campaign rallies when he referred to ACN as rascals. He had said that the electorate should not allow the region to fall into the hands of “rascals” which, by that time, had already gained ground and controlled three of the six states in the region. This was, however, mainly through court decisions which declared gubernatorial victories for the ACN's Rauf Aregbesola and Kayode Fayemi in Osun and Ekiti States, respectively.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Kazakhstan: Profits double for KMG

Last year was an exceptional one for NC Kazmunaigas, which saw net profits more than double year on year to $2.73 billion, compared to $1.29 billion in 2009. No reasons were given for the huge rise, though the rise in global oil prices was clearly a key factor.

KMG, which owns a 62 per cent stake in its London listed affiliate KMG EP, also benefited from a rise in production from the Chevron-led Tengizchevroil joint venture, in which it holds a 20 per cent interest.

KMG, which has a very good credit rating and an unblemished repayment record, needs to raise billions of dollars in extra financing over the next four to five years to meet its cash calls for the Kashagan project, in which it holds an 18.6 per cent interest. The company is in the market for a $1 billion-plus loan that will refinance some of its existing debt.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates