Libya says Qadhafi must remain in power

The Libyan government has conceded to political reform, but made it clear that Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi must remain in power. A government spokesman, Moussa Ibrahim, said Qadhafi was a "unifying figure" figure in Libya, and defended his forces, saying they only targeted armed rebels not civilians.

Speaking to State TV, Qadhafi's son Saif Al-Islam Qadhafi said Libya's Foreign Minister Musa Kusa had not defected from the regime by fleeing to the UK. Saif alleged that Kusa had travelled to Britain for health reasons, and was being coerced into making allegations against Libya. He also denied allegations that Kusa knew incriminating details about the Lockerbie bombing, saying there no more “secrets”.

The situation in Libya has reached a stalemate, with the rebel fighters in a continuous tussle over the eastern oil hub of Brega. Nearly two months since the revolt against Qadhafi began, the country remains effectively split between the rebel forces in the east and government loyalists in Tripoli and the west.

Speaking about the situation in Libya, Ibrahim said Qadhafi was "a safety valve for the country to remain together" adding, "many Libyans, many Libyans want him to lead the process forward because they are scared if he is not there for any reason we will have what happened in Iraq, we will have what happened in Somalia, we will have what happened in Afghanistan."

The spokesman also announced that the country was open to political reform such "elections, referenda" but noted that "the leader has to lead this forward".

Sources: BBC News, Aljazeera, The Daily Telegraph, Xinhua

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Nigeria: Kaztac starts work in OML 123

Oil and gas industry engineering, procurement, construction, installation, and commission firm Kaztac Engineering Limited has announced that its Ekulo Cheyenne barge has been deployed to commence work for Addax Petroleum Development Nigeria at its OML 123 block in Cross Rivers State.

The firm, which is based in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, announced this through its project manager, Rick Reggio, who stated, "The 350 ft by 100 ft by 25 ft depth pipelay/derrick and construction barge Ekulo Cheyenne is expected to execute TB–1921 Call-Off Contract for installation of sub-sea pipelines and topsides for Addax Petroleum Development Nigeria Limited."

This installation-focused contract will enable the various facilities currently being designed and manufactured to be collected, shipped to site, craned into position, and hooked up together with the laying of interconnecting pipelines and installation of associated riser systems.'

The project is described as designed to meet the company's field development goals, including 'flares down,' as it plans a new facility to expand its existing Adanga complex to provide gas compression and additional production separation capacity, with central power generation for the entire complex.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Algeria: Belkhadem's 'dinosaur' views on constitutional reform

State Minister Abdelaziz Belkhadem, who is secretary general of the National Liberation Front ( FLN) and President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's special envoy, has come to represent the most 'out of touch' or 'dinosaur' thinking within the regime. From a number of interviews this week we can get a fairly clear line on his thinking. In a statement which could be interpreted as patronising or simply 'out of touch', he said that the political initiatives of the opposition, which he did not specify, civil society organisations, which also went unnamed, and political figures, whom he didn't mention, “show healthy political practice and pluralism in Algeria”. It seems that he is saying that all the discussion about politics in Algeria is indicative of the fact that it is in a state of good health. In short, it doesn't need changing.

Coming on the current discussion about political and constitutional change, Belkhadem was quoted as saying that the FLN , is against the idea of the dissolution of the parliament and early general elections. One fairly obvious reason for that, which Belkhadem didn't mention, is that the FLN would have a good chance of being sent to electoral oblivion.

In a clear reflection of his essentially anti-democratic views, he was also quoted as saying that he rejected establishing a constitutional council that would gather representatives of political forces in the country. He tried to clarify this statement by saying that such proposals would deny all the achievements made since the independence in 1962. It is, of course, very difficult to pin-point just what achievements the country has made since 1962.

Given its huge natural wealth, for which the government cannot really take credit, many would argue that the regime has turned Algeria into the region's most misgoverned, corrupt and repressive country. And yet, almost in the next phrase, Belkhadem said that "we endorse the proposal of proceeding to a radical revision to the constitution." The key word is 'radical'.

It seems that Belkhadem's and the FLN 's understanding of 'radical' is not what most people would have in mind.

If, however, there was any hint in any of the above statements that Belkhadem might see some urgency in the need to act on Algeria's current political situation, it was clearly ruled out in an interview he gave last Monday to the Arabic daily Wakt El Djazair when he said that constitutional reform could be looked at after the legislation and local elections of 2012. Some might think that that could be a little too late!

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Statoil signs Abai exploration deal

Norway's Statoil has signed a heads of agreement with Kazmunaigas (KMG) to explore for oil and gas at the Abai block in the north Caspian. Under the terms of the deal, the two companies will evaluate the potential of the acreage, which lies in water depths of 8–10 metres, and set up an operating company to oversee the project.

During the exploration phase, Statoil and KMG will conduct seismic surveys and data acquisition and drill one exploration well. On top of this, Statoil will help train local personnel and provide “financial and technical assistance” to KMG's plan to build, own and operate a jack-up drilling rig in the Caspian.

This is Statoil's second stab at Abai: in 2005, the company signed a memorandum of understanding with KMG to develop Abai and the adjacent Isatai block, with the eventual aim of concluding a production-sharing agreement.

But the agreement did not lead anywhere, much to Statoil's frustration. Since then, the Kazakhs have imposed a moratorium on the signing of new offshore PSAs, which is unlikely to be lifted any time soon. Statoil has not been active in Kazakhstan since selling its stake in the Kashagan project more than 10 years ago — in hindsight, a very shrewd move given the mounting problems at Kashagan.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libyan rebels concede to a ceasefire

Following news that seven civilians died and 25 were injured in a coalition air strike on a pro-Qadhafi convoy, a Libyan opposition leader, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, said the rebels will accept a UN-demanded ceasefire if Qadhafi withdraws his forces from all the cities and concedes to peaceful protests.

Speaking at a conference in Benghazi, Abdul-Jalil said: "We agree on a ceasefire on the condition that our brothers in the western cities have freedom of expression and also that the forces that are besieging the cities withdraw.”

During the conference, also attended by UN envoy Abdelilah Al-Khatib, visiting the rebels' de-facto stronghold in hope of reaching a resolution, Abdul-Jalil said a ceasefire would been agreed on the condition that “Qadhafi's brigades and forces withdraw from inside and outside Libyan cities”. He added that in doing so the world would see that the Libyan people would “choose freedom" rather than remain under the regime.

The offer was made from a position of power, as the rebels seem to be better organized and better armed than ever. For most of this week, Qadhafi's forces have been trying to push the rebels back about 100 miles along the coast, prompting them to regroup and form a new strategy.

Another Libyan opposition leader, Ali Tarhouni, said the rebels had negotiated a deal with Qatar to supply oil, they control in parts of south-eastern Libya, in exchange for money for weapons and ammunition. Tarhouni did not say when the deal was agreed.

Amid talks of further defections, following that of Libya's Foreign Minister Musa Kusa, Libya's Chief of Intelligence Bouzeid Dorda dismissed rumours that he was planning to abandon Libya. In a statement aired on Libya's State television, Dorda said: "I am in Libya and will remain here steadfast in the same camp of the revolution despite everything. I never thought to cross the borders or violate commitment to the people, the revolution and the leader."

Oil Minister Shukri Ghanim has denied similar rumours, saying: "I am in Tripoli working in my office... I am trying my best to keep this oil industry as one industry, trying to minimise the damage that is happening to the installation, trying to secure the safety of the staff and the personnel [and] trying to prevent the looting of the industry."

Sources: BBC News, AP, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

British nationals urged to flee Yemen amid protests

Anti-government demonstrators are set to face President Ali Abdullah Saleh's supporters in Yemen's capital Sana'a. Tens of thousands of people are taking to the streets as the country's political turmoil intensifies. Representatives of both sides have reportedly met and agreed to avoid confrontations, which have previously resulted fatalities.

According to a number of reports, anti-government protesters are moving towards the renamed "Change Square" near the Sana'a university, while supporters of the president are gathering in the city's Tahrir Square some 2km away.

Saleh, who has ruled Yemen for over 30 years, is under mounting pressure to step down immediately. Earlier in the month, in a bid to appease the brewing disconnect of the Yemeni people, he said he would step-down in 2012 but calls for his resignation have not subsided.

UK's Foreign Office has issued a statement urging British nationals to leave the ever-increasingly unstable Middle Eastern State immediately. The statement said: "Given the situation on the ground, it is highly unlikely that the British government will be able to evacuate British nationals or provide consular assistance in the event of a further breakdown of law and order and increased violent civil disorder. British nationals should therefore plan accordingly."

It also called on Saleh to take urgent steps to "build trust with the opposition and with the protesters…Without this trust, no agreement can be reached. The Yemeni people want to see their legitimate demands acknowledged and met and the UK fully supports them in this aspiration".

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, Politics, The Press Association

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Egypt: Military council taking steps toward the handover of power

The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has taken the first practical steps towards the handover of power to a new civilian political arrangement with the promulgation of a constitutional decree, and a law which will govern the formation of political parties.

The constitutional decree is, in effect, the previous constitution but incorporates the amendments that were passed by the 19th March referendum. It continues to stipulate that Islam is the religion of the State and that Islamic law is the principle source of legislation. The amendments include the limit on the number of terms that a president may serve, and also the judicial supervision of elections.

These amendments do not, however, go as far as the youth movements and other groups, who led the protests that brought down president Hosni Mubarak, had hoped. They wanted a radical rewriting of the constitution to recast the relationship between the citizen and the State. A more thorough look at the constitution is, however, envisaged once the parliament is formed.

Announcing the decree on 30th March on behalf of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Maj Gen Mamdouh Shahin said that legislative powers would be transferred to the parliament once it was elected. The presidential elections would take place a month or two after the formation of parliament.

Similarly, the new law on the formation of new political parties makes some key changes to the previous law of 1977 but has not been universally welcomed. It states that new parties wishing to register will be vetted by a committee of judges rather than the ruling party cronies who did so in the past. This should ensure that new parties have a greater likelihood of being approved.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates