Libya: Aman dropped from blacklist

Aman Bank, which is 40 per cent owned by Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo, has been removed from the National Transitional Council's (NTC) blacklist of companies whose assets were frozen under a guardianship law while they were investigated for possible corruption and links to the Qadhafi regime.

The assets of 260 individuals and 78 companies were originally sequestered under Law 37, which was passed by the NTC in May. This was one of several controversial measures adopted by the interim authority in the last months of its existence that may well be revisited by the newly elected National Congress.

The list of affected companies and individuals has already been substantially reduced after widespread protests. Some of those originally included were able to point convincingly to the lack of evidence against them. Since then further efforts have been made to remove others from the list whose inclusion is unnecessary.

The inclusion of private companies – in particular a bank such as Aman, which is backed by European capital – was highly controversial. The bank's removal therefore comes as no surprise, but another private finance company, Wafa Bank, remains on the list.

The bulk of those who remain are family members and others with strong Qadhafi affiliations. The list also includes institutions such as the Economic and Social Development Fund, which was part of the financial apparatus of the Jamahiriya.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya: INTERPOL arrest warrants issued for former regime officials

International arrest warrants – also known as INTERPOL Red Notices - have been issued for a number of senior officials from the former Qadhafi regime. They include:

Senussi al-Wazri (a.k.a. Al-Senussi Alozyre) (b.1948) who was both a former director general of public security (i.e. interior minister) and notorious head of security in Benghazi. He is wanted by Libya for “counterfeiting, forgery, kidnapping, life and health”. He was allegedly involved in the December 1993 kidnapping in Cairo of the leading opposition figure Mansour al-Kikhiya who was allegedly returned to Libya where he was executed.

Nasser al-Mabrouk Abdallah al-Riyani (b.1951) who was appointed in April 2009 as the deputy director general of public security who is also wanted for “kidnapping, life and health”. He is alleged to have been involved in torture and in the Abu Selim prison massacre, and was one of the key individuals within the Leader's entourage who was virtually adopted as a youth into Qadhafi's service.

Colonel Bashir Sahel Bashir, once Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's chief of staff and trusted aide, who since 2005 was the head of the Libya Africa Portfolio for Investment (LAPI) (a.k.a Libyan Fund for Investment in Africa) It is hoped that he could provide details of missing Libyan cash and assets worth an estimated US$7 billion. LAPI invested some of Libya's oil wealth in a multitude of companies in both Libya and Sub-Saharan Africa. Foreign Minister Ashour Ben Khayal, among many others, is anxious to locate the funds and return them to Libya. While Reuters reported that Bashir – who originally comes from the border area and speaks fluent French - was issued with a Nigerien passport in December 2011, there are also rumours that he may be in Paris.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Qadhafi forces continue to fight against resurgent rebels

Despite the speed with which matters seem to have moved in the last few weeks, elements from the Qadhafi regime continue to fight against the resurgent rebels. Loyalists are still fighting in parts of Tripoli and in the Qadhafi strongholds of Sirte and Sebha, which remain loyal to the regime. Pro-Qadhafi control is so strong in Sirte that rebel leaders have attempted to negotiate with the town rather than launch an all-out attack.

The whereabouts of Qadhafi is still a matter for debate. On 27th August, Associated Press announced that it had received a telephone call from his spokesman Musa Ibrahim. He claimed to have seen “Brother Leader” on 26th August, and said that he was carrying an offer from the Colonel to negotiate with the rebel leadership over a transitional government. The National Transitional Council (NTC) representatives have shown no interest in this overture.

The NTC has offered a reward of US$1,300,000 for anyone capturing Qadhafi. An amnesty has also been offered to anyone, including his supporters, who kills or detains the Leader.

Current speculations on Qadhafi's whereabouts are as follows:

There is a possibility that he is still in Tripoli, perhaps having utilised the many underground passages underneath his Bab al-Azizya compound
There is also a chance that Qadhafi has been in Sirte, or more likely in Sebha, for some time and is, together with his sons, directing resistance from there.
The latest rumour put forward by a former head of the special forces, Adbel Salam al-Hasi, was that the Leader has taken up a role with his Tuareg followers in the south western desert region of Fezzan, near the Algerian border.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya's transition to democracy will not be easy

The slowing down of Egypt's revolutionary process, and lack of evidence that Libyans are about to launch their own uprising, needs to be watched with care because the contagion factor in North Africa has not gone away. In Tunisia, a period of destructive rioting has given way to comparative calm and negotiations between the protagonists for political power, but unrest still rumbles on. There are those who want to establish a radical regime but, providing they do not win the day, the momentum of reform will subside and, therefore, diminish Tunisia's role as a source of encouragement for the Libyan population.

The acute anxiety over the ability of the Libyan regime to survive will weaken with the passage of time. In the medium term, however, there is every chance that the revolutionary tide will return to the region, and especially to neighbouring Egypt. What the Libyan opposition needs is the emergence of a credible leader and the creation of an efficient fund-raising organisation. This would enable the country to adopt an aggressive approach toward the Qadhafi regime. Meanwhile, the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt will create a more febrile situation and give greater assertiveness to those of an Arab nationalist persuasion.

Foreigners working in Libya will have to revert to attitudes favourable to Islam, and be aware that their words could be construed as being anti-Libyan. A Western lifestyle will be seen as being alien, and adjustment of conduct will once again become necessary. Similarly, at corporate level, prejudice against one's Libyan hosts will have to be masked to ensure it causes no offence.

Genuine problems will arise if there is a protracted struggle for political domination at which time, foreign companies should adopt a more defensive posture in Libya. In particular, they should be ever-ready, in the event of a political stalemate, to reduce their number of staff to a minimum. In Libya, as in other Maghreb states, if there is a slide towards anarchy or military control, it could come at short notice and with considerable violence.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates