Azerbaijan secures Security Council seat

For the first time, Azerbaijan has secured a seat on the UN Security Council for the 2012–13 session, along with Pakistan, Morocco, Guatemala and Togo. After an unusual 17 rounds of voting, Azerbaijan beat Slovenia on 25th October to the coveted seat.

In Baku, the victory is being seen as a major diplomatic coup, and a validation of the country’s attempts to become a significant player on the world stage. It is especially satisfying because arch-rival Armenia withdrew its bid early on. President Ilham Aliev set the tone, saying that Armenia was “forced to admit that they were losing to Azerbaijan and the international community condemns their aggressive policy against Azerbaijan”.

Azerbaijani politicians and analysts have already begun ruminating on the significance of the victory and how Azerbaijan can use the seat to advance its national interests. Naturally the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be high on the agenda, and Baku will – at the least – try to prompt the Security Council into making a statement condemning the presence of Armenian forces in the conflict zone. Although its too early to say what else will be a priority by the time Azerbaijan takes its seat, the ongoing international pressure against Iran will probably remain an important issue for the Security Council. Any new vote on sanctions or other forms of pressure will be sensitive for Baku, particularly if their bilateral relationship continues to head into choppy waters.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.


© 2011 Menas Associates

Azerbaijan: Elections fail to pass muster with observers

Parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan, which tightened President Ilham Aliev's grip on the country, were predictably given a thumbs-down by international monitors hoping to detect greater signs of democracy. In a statement, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) described the conduct of the elections, in which all opposition parties took part, as “not sufficient to constitute meaningful progress in the democratic development of the country”.

The OSCE pointed to the usual problems: lack of media freedom, absence of a free political discourse and deficient candidate registration. Almost one-third of polling stations were rated as “bad” or “very bad”, with ballot stuffing spotted in several instances. Azerbaijan has become used to this kind of criticism from the OSCE, but the country's leadership knows that the reaction from its key western allies, especially the US, will be muted.

After the last parliamentary elections in 2005, which were also criticised by the OSCE, the US expressed initial disappointment but a few months later gave President Aliev the red-carpet treatment in Washington. There appears to be an acceptance in the US that Azerbaijan, at least under its present leadership, will never embrace western-style democracy and that elections will be a sham. The next nationwide vote is scheduled for October 2013, when Aliev will, barring a major surprise, seek a third term in office. Will he exceed the 87 per cent majority he was given in the last presidential elections in 2008? Only time will tell.

In the latest elections, Aliev's Yeni Azerbaijan party increased its majority in the 125-seat parliament from 64 to 71 seats, with the remainder help by smaller parties and so-called independents who are largely loyal to the government.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2010 Menas Associates