Brazil: Election campaign momentum

José Serra's campaign is not doing well. He is trying to do in 40 days what PSDB failed to do in eight years of Lula's tenure. Serra's original assumption was that, given Lula's tremendous and unshakeable popularity, he should not criticise the president's performancebut focus on Dilma Rousseff.

Since Lula has adroitly managed to convince most of the electorate that Rousseff's tenure as president would be a mere formality, and a continuation of his own – and indeed that he would remain as president in all but name – it follows that Serra should attack Lula himself.

However, in the states the parties in Serra's coalition (PSDB-DEM-PPS) are blithely ignoring him. Tradition and ethics demand that the candidates for governor, senator, federal, and state deputy positions advertise the presidential contender in addition to themselves, but this is not happening. By contrast, Rousseff's campaign is blessed by Lula's appearance every time.

As the campaign unfolds, Rousseff has acquired self-assurance in live TV interviews, where she tries to underline both continuity with Lula's government and her own capacity for governing Brazil. Serra had been using the argument of his record of experience, but Rousseff is asserting her own experience.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Commentary: Brazil's presidential election

To the extent that polls can be relied upon, the three largest polling organizations in Brazil concur that the Partido dos Trabalhadores' (PT) Dilma Rousseff has indeed a significant and widening edge over the Brazilian Social Democracy Party's (PSDB) José Serra. Her victory in the first ballot is at this stage probable, but by no means a shoo-in. Surprises can happen.

Serra has, however, run a lukewarm campaign, in part due to his personality and in part owing to his fractious coalition, whereas from day one outgoing President Lula embraced Dilma as his heiress apparent, leaving no doubt that he would remain in control during her tenure. Given his astonishing popularity ratings (75 per cent), Serra avoided confronting him. It was a duel between Lula's raw charisma and Serra's pallid accounts of his government experience, about which nobody cared.

A refurbished and embellished Dilma performed well on TV and in debates, where Serra had expected to crush her. This did not happen. Unless Serra becomes more aggressive in the remaining month, he will have lost the campaign and the presidency. The Green Party's Marina Silva trails with 8 per cent, and it is possible that some of her votes would accrue to Serra in a run-off – if there is one.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

© 2010 Menas Associates

A VP for Serra

Ending months of speculation and uncertainty, PSDB announced on 25 June the choice of a running mate for candidate José Serra. Senator Álvaro Dias (PSDB-PR) got the nod, and it was thought he would bring a few million votes from Paraná.

The nomination had to be formally ratified by the party on or before 5 July, but the Democrats (DEM) party, a member of Serra's coalition, compelled the candidate to reverse the decision and choose one of their own.

In a surprising if not shocking move, on the eve of the deadline Serra discarded Dias as a running mate and selected instead Antonio Índio da Costa (DEM-RJ), an almost unknown 39-year-old federal deputy from Rio and a political protégé of controversial former Rio mayor César Maia.The net result will be to add three minutes of television time to Serra's campaign. It is doubtful that it was worth it.

Índio da Costa's only claim to glory is that he was rapporteur of the Clean Records Law (Fichas Limpas) in the Chamber of Deputies. This is of course positive, but he is linked to the political machine in Rio, which itself is not the cleanest.

The last-minute selection, obviously under coercion by DEM, does not help the candidate. He is a far cry from Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG), who would have enormously boosted the ticket.

As a strategic move by Serra, this was a disaster. In the past, eight vice-presidents have had to replace the president of Brazil. If voters consider this possibility, Indio da Costa is probably a hazardous choice.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

© 2010 Menas Associates