Lula's illness brings uncertainty into Brazilian politics

On 28th October, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) was diagnosed with cancer of the larynx and immediately underwent chemotherapy treatment at the Syrian-Lebanese Hospital in São Paulo. According to his doctors, Lula has a 90 per cent chance of making a full recovery. All of Lula's official commitments including a loaded speaking agenda were cancelled through to the end of January 2012.

Lula's illness has a series of political implications. He has lately been travelling around the country, giving speeches and trying to build local alliances for his Workers' Party (PT) with a view to the municipal elections, which are to take place in October 2012. But for now his political campaigning has to cease, which will give other campaigners a chance to redouble their efforts. The importance of these elections is that the mayors of large cities usually have a great deal of influence over the process of nominations of candidates for presidential and legislative elections, and could therefore have an impact on those of 2014.

While it is still an open question whether Lula or President Dilma Rousseff will be PT's candidate for the presidency in 2014, and Dilma is quietly asserting her own credentials, the emotional factor raised by Lula's illness cannot be discounted. The Brazilian voter characteristically has sympathy for the underdog, and Lula has become one by virtue of his cancer. He is also a legent in the minds of the poor and the downtrodden, and they constitute the majority of the electorate, especially in the populous northeast, while the ascending middle class elsewhere in the country also ascribe their economic and social progress to Lula's policies. Should he therefore decide to run in 2014, and be physically able to do so, he would most likely win the election by a landslide. And so somewhat rather unexpectedly, an element of uncertainty has been introduced into Brazilian politics.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Brazil: Going postal over corruption

The Brazilian postal service, ECT, used to be a source of pride for the nation. Mail and telegrams were delivered speedily and effectively anywhere in this enormous country. No more. Under Lula's tenure, all management positions were thoroughly politicised.

This happened throughout the public service but was notorious in ECT, racked by a long succession of egregious corruption scandals. Indeed, it was because of one of those episodes that José Dirceu's giant mensalão scandal came to light, quite by chance.

Obviously, the efficiency of the postal service suffered considerably. This would not have mattered so much to Lula if it had not surfaced in another corruption scandal, this one connected to the sons of Erenice Guerra (Dilma Rousseff's dear friend and successor as Chief of the Civil Cabinet). It seems there were fraudulent contracts in the postal organisation.

Lula appointed Minister of Planning Paulo Bernardo (PT-PR) to investigate the affair, and ECT as such. On 14th October, the minister delivered his report: after the election, the whole system of allocation of executive jobs on the basis of party affiliation must end. After the election.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

© 2010 Menas Associates