Libya: Failure to take Misrata has damaged the regime

The current lull in the war is not a harbinger of peace. On the contrary, the stalemate over Misrata has greatly damaged the regime where, despite overwhelming advantages, they have failed, so far, to take the city. Other minor fronts are still active, notably Zintan where Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's forces still prevail.

Unrest still pervades Misrata as the opposition seek to drive back the regime troops in the Zliten and Khoms region which are regarded, for defensive purposes, as the outliers of Tripoli. The overall chances of peace are slim and both sides are licking their wounds and preparing for the next round of fighting.

The disruption of civil life extends well into Tripolitania where shortages, particularly of fuel, are causing major stress in the population. The run-down of the efficiency of other aspects of the economy from foodstuffs to banking are apparent. Libyan operations are difficult for foreign personnel and, no doubt, unprofitable.

Security for inland sites has not been established and there is little or no security for foreigners travelling in any proximity to the militarised areas even if they have security support. The southern borderlands around Zintan are the scene of severe fighting and should be avoided at all costs.

The immediate future looks very poor for foreign stakeholders in both contracting and machinery supply. In part, this is the result of the UN sanctions and but also because the import system is being bypassed by the government in favour of ad hoc purchases from suppliers who will attempt to import goods without validation.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya divided by pro and anti regime activists

The rebellion in Libya against Colonel Qadhafi has graduated into a small scale war fought between two groups; one with the strength in armour and aircraft and the other lightly armed with little or no armoured vehicles and no air support. The confrontation was entirely precipitated by a regime in Tripoli which is determined, as it always has been, to survive at whatever cost to the country and its people.

The eastern region and particularly Benghazi has chosen to challenge the regime of Colonel Qadhafi without benefit of planning, training or provision for a bloody conflict. In particular, it has so far ignored the lessons of the North Africa campaigns of the Second World War which demonstrated the key importance of logistics on a war front that runs for hundreds of km in a fine and discontinuous line parallel with the Mediterranean Sea coast.

The movement of troops, munitions and support facilities along this littoral corridor is vulnerable to disruption as supply lines become attenuated. The inability of rebel forces to support the uprising in Tripoli, Zawiya, Misurata and other centres west of the Gulf of Sirte is a testimony to this fact and possibly will be a principal obstacle to prosecution of a successful war by those opposed to the Qadhafis.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates