Algiers' central role in Sahel's escalating security chaos

An extremely complex and potentially very serious state of affairs is fast developing in the Sahel, focusing primarily on Mali, but extending through Mauritania and Niger and, increasingly, Chad.

Full details and analysis of this situation will be provided in the June issue of Sahara Focus. The main points are:

There has been the appearance of a rapprochement between Algeria and these Sahelian states over the course of the last two or three months. This has been largely coerced by external powers, namely the EU and the US.
In October 2010, the EU Foreign Affairs Council, concerned by AQIM activity in the Sahel, placed the region at the top of its security agenda. It then commissioned a very detailed in-depth report on the region, which was researched and written by the author of Menas Associates' Algeria Politics & Security.
This report highlighted the role of Algeria, through its links with AQIM, in the Sahel's destabilisation. Although the full report has not been published, its key points were 'leaked' to Algeria, with the implicit message that its position in the Sahel could be undercut by EU intervention.
A similar message was relayed to Algeria by the US, which is not pleased with either Algeria's support for Libya's Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi, its increasing belligerency towards and falling out with almost all its neighbours, and its over-hyping and exaggeration of the Al-Qa'ida threat in the region.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

DRS believed to have been behind 5-9th January riots

An analysis of Algeria's nationwide riots ('revolt') between 5-10th January has been undertaken by Algeria's opposition Rachad Movement. Its conclusion, based on their examination of what happened in most towns and cities across the country, is that the DRS almost certainly played a key role in both instigating and escalating the violence. This is a commonly used tactic by Algeria's security forces and one that Algeria Politics & Security warned might happen on several occasions last year when we forecast that nationwide unrest would overwhelm the country at some point after September-October.

At the time of the 5-10th January unrest, we reported that agents provocateurs, working for the security forces, had been identified playing a key role in the street violence that was specifically directed at shops and their looting. This strategy was designed to, and succeeded in, scaring many sectors of the population and turning them against the rioters who were portrayed by the state media as 'youths' and 'criminals'. This tactic was facilitated by the strategy of the police not to hold ground but retreating before the rioters and therefore allowing them to cause maximum damage.

Rachad's analysis concludes that this was a nationwide tactic of the DRS to ensure extensive damage to property, both private shops and government buildings, so that Algerians would be shocked and thus less inclined to embark on any further and more concerted attempt to overthrow the regime itself.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates