Ghana budget review comes amid ailing economy

Embattled Finance Minister Seth Terkper is expected to outline new measures to address Ghana’s economy when he presents a mid-year review of the 2014 budget.

The review, which is likely to take place before the end of this month, could see the ministry modify its macroeconomic targets for the 2014 budget, which are widely seen as being unrealistic, as well as present new policies to stabilise the economy.

As reports emerged this week that the cedi could fall even further to between GH¢3.50 and GH¢4 per dollar, there is mounting pressure on President Mahama and his Finance Minister to deal with the country’s ailing economy.

Last week the Trades Union Congress released a statement reprimanding the government for an economic situation which is “getting worse every day” and a country in which “nothing is working”. It pointed to the continuous slide in the cedi, unpaid salaries, job losses, failing businesses, rising inflation, energy shortfalls, rising utility tariffs and high taxes as factors which continue to harm hardworking Ghanaians.

The Private Enterprise Foundation (PEF), an umbrella organisation for private businesses, also said last week that the government’s “misguided” policies mean that business confidence is at its lowest in four years. This echoed the sentiment of the Association of Ghana Industries which in May called for drastic measures to improve the dwindling fortunes of Ghanaian businesspeople, as well the concerns of the Monetary Policy Committee which, in its April report, spoke of a depressed business environment. There is also considerable anger that the government is not grasping the severity of the situation. The PEF’s CEO, Nana Osei-Bonsu, said, “Government comments like ‘we are going through short-term challenges and difficulties, and this is like a hiccup’ are not helping. These are hurricanes! This is not a hiccup.”

International ratings agencies have meanwhile delivered a damning report on Ghana’s economic management. Following Fitch’s downgrade of its outlook from stable to negative, Moody’s lowered Ghana’s rating to B2 from B1, and maintained a negative outlook on the rating to signal the likelihood of a further downgrade in future; it then downgraded the ratings for the GCB.

Despite increasing pressures, the government is sticking to “home-grown” solutions for now rather than seeking financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund to help solve its problems.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya's 2014 Budget is finally passed

On 22 June the long awaited 2014 Budget originally submitted to the Congress in January by the then Prime Minister, Ali Zidan, was passed. This came as a surprise to some Congress members who had expected to debate the issue in a session on the 22 June. Having waited almost all day for there to be enough members present to reach 94 - the required number of members present to be able to hold an official consultative session - the Congress was told that the budget had been passed on a technicality.

As Libya Politics & Security – 16.06.14 explained, the Al-Thanni government declared last week that the Congress had 120 days from the budget’s initial submission to debate the law, after which time the government had the right to issue a financial mandate to ratify it. Al-Thanni therefore scored a bit of a coup by getting the law passed in this way, despite the fact that certain Congress members were keen for the budget to be reduced. 

The Central Bank may, however, still object to the budget being passed in this fashion, although it is not clear whether it has a legal right to do so. The budget stands at LD56.5 billion (US$45 billion). Given the crisis in revenues caused by the disruptions at the oil ports, a significant portion of this money is expected to come from a reserve fund at the Central Bank that was set up by Colonel Qadhafi as a fund for future generations. Whether the Central Bank will agree to this fund being used also remains open to question. 

It is clear, however, that Libya cannot fund itself from oil revenues alone. The budget committee in the Congress based the 2014 budget on a projected annual oil production of 600,000 b/d but the country has clearly fallen woefully short of this. Thus drawing on this LD16 billion fund, plus some of the central bank’s foreign reserves, therefore seems to be the only solution.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Ghana: NPP internal election chaos continues

The NPP’s election vetting committee has allowed businessman and founding member of the NPP, Paul Afoko, to continue campaigning to run for the party’s national chairmanship, but continues to suspend his vetting process.

The NPP internal election chaos is continuing because, according to party insiders, although the party’s national chairman Jake Obetsebi-Lamptey and General Secretary Kwadwo “Sir John” Owusu Afriyie continue to be the frontrunners for their respective party offices, both men are facing significant opposition at next month’s expensive party congress at the Northern Region city of Tamale. 

On the plus side, the party’s vetting committee has softened one major controversy by allowing one of Obetsebi-Lamptey’s opponents, the businessman Paul Afoko, to continue campaigning after, as we have reported in previous issues, it had earlier suspended investigations into his fitness to run following receipt of a non-attributable allegation over his alleged past wrongdoing.

Nevertheless, according to NPP elections director Martin Adjei Mensah, the vetting committee is still investigating Afoko’s suspension but has allowed him to continue campaigning for the present until a decision is taken. This has led Afoko to again voice his disappointment while campaigning in Upper West Region that the committee will not reveal the name of the party member who suggested that he had served a prison sentence in the UK for fraud.

Given that the other three other candidates for the post of national chairman have all been cleared by the vetting committee, Afoko may indeed be campaigning at a disadvantage.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates