Wednesday, 2 February 2011

Brazil: Tilting the economic globe

HSBC Global Research released a report in mid-January called "The World in 2050 – Quantifying the Shift in the Global Economy." Its major conclusion is that by 2050, the collective size of emerging economies will have increased five¬fold and will be larger than the developed world.

Brazil is projected to have by then the seventh largest economy, with GDP of US$2,960 billion, a per capita income of US$13,547 (against US$4,711 in 2010), and a population of 219 million. (The figures are given in constant 2000 US$.)

It predicts that 19 of the 30 largest economies will be from the emerging world, whereas there will be a marked decline in the rich economies of Europe. The rise in income per capita in the emerging economies, especially China and India, will dwarf that of the United States.

If the report is accurate, the corollary is that there will also be a pronounced shift in political clout from the developed to the developing world. For Brazil, it would also corroborate the point that former president Lula's South–South policy, though ideologically inspired, was fundamentally correct.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

© 2010 Menas Associates

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