Libya: Sixty Committee holds first meeting

Libya’s constitution committee held its first meeting on 21 April in the eastern town of Al-Bayda.
The committee elected a head, selecting well-known liberal Ali Tarhouni to lead the process, and chose Al-Jilani Abdelsalam Arhouma as his deputy. The committee also agreed to spend the coming days working out its by-laws.

Only 47 of the 60 members of the committee were present as the remaining 13 members still have to be elected. The Amazigh (Berbers) are continuing to boycott the committee and elections for the other 11 seats - which could not take place in February due to security issues -  have yet to be re-held.
The committee remains incomplete, creating serious difficulties for the process of writing the new constitution. As one former congress member explained,: “The elections have not been completed so anyone can challenge the work of the committee by filing a petition to the constitutional court.”

This aside, the committee only has 120 days to draw up the new constitution. Given the sensitivities over some of the issues that will need to be thrashed out - such as what political system the country should adopt; how far it should go with decentralisation; whether Islamic Sharia should be the sole source of legislation; and what status should be given the country’s ethnic minorities - it seems highly unlikely that the committee will be able to complete its work within that timeframe.

How this new constitution will sit with the ongoing transition process and new elections also has yet to be seen.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.
© 2014 Menas Associates

Cameroon declared eligible for new World Bank loans

Last week, Minister of Economic Planning and Regional Development Emmanuel Nganou Djoumessi declared that Cameroon has been successful in applying for soft loans from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) subsidiary through which projects are supported in eligible developing economies.

Nothing was said about the scale of the loans but Djoumessi said that Cameroon, which had applied for World Bank funding during a 2013 meeting in Washington DC, is expected to use the funding to build roads, develop electricity and fund other key infrastructural projects in the country’s quest to become an emerging economy.

In recent years, Cameroon’s relationship with the World Bank has not been particularly cordial because it has faced criticisms from the Bank for not using all of the credits at its disposal. Corruption, administrative red tape, excessive procedural lapses and inappropriate execution of projects have been at the centre of the discords, which the World Bank had earlier said had kept credit consumption levels at barely 11%.

For more news and expert analysis about Cameroon, please see Cameroon Politics & Security.
© 2014 Menas Associates

Egypt: New law to protect officials from prosecution

The interim president Adly Mansour has issued a decree that will make it more difficult for third parties to challenge contracts signed with the government. It would make impossible the kind of challenge that led to the prosecution of ministers from the Mubarak era and other senior officials for selling off state property cheaply to developers in exchange for favours.

The government says the new protections are aimed at encouraging foreign investment.  The review of contracts immediately after the fall of the Mubarak regime led to uncertainty among investors, especially from the Gulf who had invested in real estate developments. The lack of security for investments did much to dampen enthusiasm for more investment.

Critics say it marks a return to the old ways and that officials will be able to act corruptly with impunity.  Abdullah Bin Mahfouz, Chairman of the Saudi Egyptian Business Council, welcomed the new law: "I'm sure that due to this law we will see an inflow of investment no less than US$15 billion in the next three years because there are huge opportunities in steel and mining and factories that are considered the biggest in the Middle East."

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.
© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Unhappy banks

Speculation aside, Nigeria’s banks have not welcomed the private-sector CRR increase, which they believe could harm their profits and reduce their ability to lend. These include Diamond Bank, whose officials recently stated that they will need to obtain more customer deposits to maintain profits now that – per deposit value – they may be unable to make the same income.

Some banks have in recent weeks reported decreased 2013 earnings, but it should be noted that some analysts – including Exotix – view Nigeria’s banking sector as a sound place to invest compared to other sub-Saharan African banking sectors. They highlight Zenith, United Bank for Africa, and Access Bank as good buys.

Nevertheless, the Nigerian commercial banking sector has been reassured by the installation of a new chief executive for pan-African Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI), which has around 40 per cent of its revenues and assets in Nigeria. That feeling should be reinforced by soothing comments from the new man, Albert Kobina Essien.

Essien emphasises that ETI will focus on consolidation and efficiency improvements rather than overly rapid expansion, and that it will be more vigilant regarding important markets like Nigeria.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Ghana: New measures positively impacting local currency

The Bank of Ghana's head of financial stability says that the new measures introduced by the bank are already positively impacting the local currency.

At an Institute of Economic Affairs policy forum, Benjamin Amoah said that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi, which stood at 7.2% at the start of January, had reduced to 1.29% by mid-April thanks to a number of policy changes, including the raising of the policy rate by 200 basis points to 18% and the hiking of reserve requirements.

To consolidate these gains, he said, the government should adhere to budgetary targets, improve revenue mobilisation by widening the tax net, diversify exports and make a greater effort to block foreign exchange leakages. He said that greater collaboration and communication between fiscal managers and the central bank would also be beneficial.

A Reuters report issued last week suggested, however, that the impact of central bank measures is unlikely to last. Analysts are predicting a further fall in the cedi over the next week because of the unmet dollar demand from importers. 

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.
© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: New discoveries

The National Oil Company (NOC) reported two new discoveries this month. The first was announced by its Arabian Gulf Oil Company (Agoco) subsidiary and is in the Sirte basin, about 80 km southwest of the town of Marada. According to the NOC website, the company drilled the FF2-47 well to a total depth of 7,270 feet and tested oil from the Lidam formation.

The test flow rate was 1,900 b/d of 27o API oil. The exploration well was first drilled in 1971 but the results were not very encouraging and only 65 barrels of oil were recovered – which is why it was considered uncommercial at the time.

Meanwhile, a consortium comprising Algeria’s state-owned Sonatrach International (Sipex), Oil India, and the Indian Oil Corporation made the second discovery. The gas discovery was made at well C1-96/01 in contract area 95/96 in the Ghadames basin, 650 km southwest of Tripoli.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Algeria: Some electoral statistics

According to government sources the electoral roll, which cannot be  accessed by candidates or electoral monitors for reasons of “data  protection” (see below, fraud), listed 22,880,678 voters of which  21,871,678 are registered in Algeria while 1,009,000 are registered  as living abroad. The authorities mobilised 11,756 polling centres and 49,971 polling stations, including 167 mobile stations. 398 of these polling stations were abroad.

Some 460,000 civil servants were mobilised to officiate at the elections. Polling centres and stations were open from 8 am to 7 pm. Wallis had the discretion to open one hour earlier and extend voting by one hour.

Algerians abroad could vote from last Saturday up until Thursday. Nomads in remote areas (e.g. Tamanrasset, Illizi, Adrar) could vote at 167 mobile stations between Monday and Thursday. Some 59,000 nomads are involved. Bouteflika cast his vote at El Biar in Algiers and was helped into the polling station in a wheel-chair. It was the first time he has appeared in public since his election address at Setif on 8 May 2012 which is almost two years ago. 

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates