Cameroon: Biya's security tightened for Africa-EU Summit in Brussels

President Paul Biya’s security was beefed-up at the Africa-European Union Summit in Brussels because of a determined team of Cameroonian activists who planned to disgrace him by throwing tomatoes and chanting anti-Biya slogans. The demonstrations were led by renowned activist Moise Essoh, leader of the activist group known as “Le Code”.

At the Brussels Meridien Hotel, where Biya was staying, members of Le Code flooded the area on 2 April to demonstrate against him.  “Our plan had been to make the world know that Biya is a president of risk,” Essoh said on several interviews posted on the internet and carried by several authoritative local newspapers. “But we were stopped by some 40 armed Cameroonian men in black who had been planted around the hotel.” He added that the Belgian police were drafted in with the Cameroonian security to avoid trouble.

The episode at the summit is another demonstration of the ongoing opposition that Biya faces both at home and abroad for persisting to rule the country for more than 31 years with no sign of him being prepared to step-down.

Biya particularly faces challenges from the younger generation who have been side-lined from decision-making circles in a country of more than 20 million where – despite the poverty, unemployment and nepotism – the gerontocracy has taken the entire governing mechanism hostage which naturally frustrates the younger generation.

For more news and expert analysis about Cameroon, please see Cameroon Politics & Security.
© 2014 Menas Associates

Political parties set to fight each other in parliamentary elections

Political parties may jump on the Abdel Fattah El-Sisi bandwagon now but they will fight each other in the parliamentary elections later this year.  The political parties, many of which are new, are weakly organised outside Cairo and have limited resources. It is possible that El- Sisi’s supporters may attempt to create a political alliance that they will present to the electorate candidates that would broadly support his policies.

A number of political parties are advocating that parliamentary elections should be held on “a closed party list” system rather than the open system that the regime seems to prefer. The objective is to find a way of getting voters to make their selections on the basis of policies rather than powerful individuals.

The dissolved National Democratic Party recruited leading families and locally important individuals to help ensure its electoral victories. These families still remain, particularly in the rural areas, and may be tempted to stand as independents and then negotiate their way into parliamentary blocs and, perhaps, ministerial jobs.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.
© 2014 Menas Associates

Central Bank governor downplays Fitch's recent downgrade of Ghana’s outlook

Central Bank governor downplays Fitch's recent downgrade of Ghana’s outlook from stable to negative while maintaining the key policy interest rate at 18%.

Bank of Ghana (BoG) governor, Dr Henry Kofi Wampah, told reporters in Accra that Fitch's assessment is shallow and too narrowly focused on long-term prospects and that it ignores the more positive outlook for the short and medium term. Answering questions from journalists following Fitch’s latest decision he said he also disagreed with its prediction of a 20% depreciation of the cedi in 2014.

 Last week, the BoG maintained its policy interest rate at 18% following a 200 basis point adjustment in a bid to halt the decline of the local currency, on the grounds that the government's recent monetary policies had yet to make their impact felt.

Analysts argue that, given current investor concerns about the fiscal outlook, it is unlikely that further raising interest rates will do much to attract new inflows and an increase in the policy rate would negatively affect the government’s debt-servicing costs and GDP growth.

The Central Bank has also raised bank reserve requirement to 11 per cent from 9 per cent in a bid to stem the cedi’s fall and rein in inflation, a move which, according to some, would not prevent the local currency from further depreciating but would only increase short-term interest rates.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Judge orders SSS to return Lamido Sanusi’s passport to him

Judge Ibrahim Buba of the Federal High Court in Lagos has ordered the State Security Service (SSS) to return the passport of the suspended Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor, Lamido Sanusi, to him and pay N50 million (US$305,000) in damages for detaining him.

Sanusi was suspended by President Goodluck Jonathan on 21 February after Sanusi had raised some uncomfortable questions about the US$20 billion that he said the state-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) had failed to remit to the government.

Sanusi, who had been in Niger at a meeting of regional central bank governors at the time, was greeted by SSS agents on his return to Lagos, where he was detained and his passport confiscated.
Sanusi's problems are, however, far from over. He is challenging his suspension in court; not, he says to get his job back but instead to make the impropriety of his effective dismissal a matter of record. At the same time, he still faces questions from his opponents about his tenure at the CBN. Sanusi and his team - retired deputy governor Tunde Lemo and deputy (now acting) governor Sarah Alade - appeared before the Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria, to respond to questions about alleged irregular transactions in 2011-2012.

Meanwhile, the new Central Bank governor, Zenith Bank’s CEO and Group Managing Director Godwin Emefiele, was confirmed on 26 March after a speedy Senate hearing. He takes over from Sarah Alade in June.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Qatar's Emir also visits Algeria

The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, visited for two days this week on an invitation by President Bouteflika. The Emir was accompanied by Qatar Foreign Minister Khalid Bin Mohammad Al-Atiyya. In what was foreseen as something of a diplomatic faux pas, the visit coincided with that of John Kerry.

Sheikh Tamim arrived in Algiers late on Wednesday 3 April as part of a tour that had earlier taken him to Jordan and Sudan. He left for Tunisia later on Thursday.
Attending the meeting broadcast on Algerian state television were Algerian Parliament Speaker Abdul Qadir bin Saleh, head of Algeria's national assembly Al-Arabi Ould Khalifa and Algerian Finance Minister Karim Djoudi.

The exact details of the bilateral talks were not revealed in a statement issued on the visit by the Algerian Presidency. However, the visit is widely believed to been an attempt by Qatar to seek support in its current isolation in the Gulf Region as a result of its conflicts with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE. Although relations between Qatar and Algeria have at times been tetchy, the Emir’s family has extremely close relations with Bouteflika.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Still no progress on the formation of a new government

It seems that congress is no closer to forming a new government or to agreeing on a new Prime Minister. The issue was supposed to be discussed by congress on 6 April, but the topic was postponed to allow for further talks among the political blocs. The blocs are clearly unable to agree on a candidate that is acceptable to both sides. Reports that leaked out of congress this week suggested that a deal had been struck and that the former head of the Integrity Committee, Omar Al-Hassi, was to be made Prime Minister.

Given that Al-Hassi is an Islamist and known to be close to the Muslim Brotherhood, it was also reported that, in return for his being appointed as Prime Minister, the Islamists had agreed to sacrifice Nouri Abu Sahmaine and to allow his more liberal leaning deputy, Izzadine Al-Awami, to become head of the congress.

Such reports would, however, appear to be unfounded. It is unlikely that the liberals, particularly the National Forces Alliance (NFA), would accept the idea of the Muslim Brotherhood having one of their allies as premier. Similarly, it is difficult to see that the Islamists would be willing to accept the congress being dominated by anyone from outside of their own current.

The congress is still in deadlock, which means that the most likely solution will be for Abdullah Al-Thanni to remain in the post, probably until new elections are held.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Swiss will not release US$791 million in frozen assets because of concerns over human rights

The death sentences handed down to the 528 - or 529, because there is still confusion in judicial sources - defendants in Minya may cost the country dear. The Swiss authorities have said that, because of the death sentences, they are unlikely to return to Egypt the 700 million Swiss francs (US$791 million) in assets that were frozen in 2011 after the fall of President Hosni Mubarak’s regime believed to have been deposited by members of Mubarak’s family and close entourage.

The head of international law at the Swiss foreign ministry, Valentin Zellweger, said that developments in Egypt “are reflected in our proceedings”. He said that it was necessary to proceed more carefully because Swiss law requires that human rights are respected. Zellweger said that, in spite of current developments in Egypt, the Swiss government’s ultimate goal is to return the money to the Egyptian government provided it can be proven that the money was stolen.

Meanwhile, in another case, two of President Morsi’s supporters -Mahmoud Ramadan and Abdullah el-Ahmedi - have been sentenced to death for throwing two young men off a roof top in Alexandria during protests after Morsi was ousted last year. Footage of two young men being thrown from a roof to their deaths was widely broadcast at the time. This is one incident seized upon by the authorities and large sections of the public as evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood is essentially a violent organisation.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates