Mass demonstration of support for Jonathan in Abuja

Mass demonstration of support for Jonathan in Abuja will provide backdrop for announcement of his candidacy in 2014/15 elections.

 

Months of political suspense over whether President Goodluck Jonathan how and when declare his intentions to run for a second term in 2015 are coming to an end. Although Jonathan is certain to announce he will run in 2014/15, the main question for the ruling People's Democratic Party is how much of an internal competition for the nomination will be allowed in the wake of the defection of seven PDP state governors this month.

 

Preparations are under way for a “five-million-man march” in Abuja on October 19, at which Jonathan is expected to celebrate his achievements since 2011 and announced, at last, that he is in the running again.

 

The National Solidarity March, as the event is called, will be coordinated by Chief Obi Aguocha, an Abia State lawmaker. Similar spectacles will follow in key commercial centres across the country

Jonathan may have taken onboard the advice of Anthony Anenih, the Chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees, who seemed to be losing patience with the ongoing party ructions and two weeks ago told Jonathan to declare his candidacy.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Kidnapped children released unharmed but kidnappings in the region are on the rise

Throughout the week there has been a huge public outcry about the kidnapping of 15 schoolchildren from Nigeria's south-eastern town of Aba. President Jonathan took charge, directing the new Inspector General of Police Hafiz Ringim and the heads of all other security agencies to collaborate in order to secure the immediate release of the children, condemning the kidnapping as “utterly callous and cruel”.

Fortunately, there was a happy ending to the story and on Friday 1st October, the children were rescued from a forest hideout in Ogwe-Asa by the security services. Police Commissioner Jonathan Johnson said that no arrests had been made and he was not aware that any ransom money had been paid. The children are in police custody and will be returned to their parents later today.

Around 5,000 extra soldiers have been deployed to the area to prevent the kidnappers from escaping and there are roadblocks in Aba city centre with many shops and businesses - which had shut down following the abduction fearing further attacks – remaining closed.

Kidnapping incidents in Abia State have risen sharply and the past few months have seen the targets shift from expatriates and wealthy public figures and their families, to ordinary citizens. Increased and improved security for the former has compelled kidnappers to resort to abducting ordinary middle class Nigerians who do not have such access to well-armed private security.

Until recently, kidnapping was largely confined to the Niger Delta militants who abducted expatriates as part of their campaign against the perceived injustice meted out by the government and the IOCs to indigent Niger Delta communities. Now, however, criminals in other parts of Nigeria have since largely abandoned armed robbery, which was the most prevalent criminal activity, and have taken to kidnapping instead, after observing the Niger Delta militants' success in obtaining more money from a single kidnapping incident than several robberies.

Abia State's Governor Theodore Orji has said that he is at his wits' end and at a loss as to how to stop the growing menace of kidnapping, especially because his offer of unconditional amnesty to stop their criminal activities yielded no results and has now been withdrawn. The Federal Government may soon have to declare a state of emergency in Abia State - especially in view of the forthcoming elections. It is currently unlikely that elections can be held there if the kidnappings go unchecked, because both politicians and the electorate are afraid of the menace of kidnappers and, therefore, there has been little or no election campaign activity in the State.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

General Babangida President Jonathan's biggest rival for PDP nomination

President Goodluck Jonathan formally declared his intention to stand for the presidency in 2011 at a rally in Abuja on 18th September amid indications that he is ahead of rivals in the delegate count for the ruling Peoples Democratic Party's (PDP) convention. His biggest challenger for the PDP nomination will be the former military head of state, General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida (IBB).

Jonathan made his first public declaration of his intention to contest the 2011 Presidential elections through social networking site, Facebook. He made the announcement on

Wednesday 15th September in what appeared to be an attempt to divert attention from the Babangida's formal declaration on the same day in Abuja.

Informal polling in Nigeria suggests that Jonathan is likely to secure twice as many delegates to the PDP convention as IBB. The other likely PDP challengers who have declared – former vice president Atiku Abubakar and Kwarra State governor Bukola Saraki - are expected to collect a much smaller numbers of delegates, mostly from their home areas

To secure the PDP nomination, the winning candidate must secure 51per cent of the 3483 delegates at the convention. Jonathan's main stronghold is in a broad area of the south, while Babangida's support in concentrated in the north-west.

There is now the prospect of four northerners seeking the PDP nomination – Babangida, Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki and the now former National Security Adviser (NSA) retired Lt-Gen Aliyu Mohammed Gusau. With no unified candidate from the northern region to oppose him President Jonathan therefore enjoys a considerable advantage.

Concern that divisions will cost 'the North' the presidency has prompted the establishment of a Northern Presidential Aspirants Committee to find a single northern candidate at October's PDP convention. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) timetable is for the presidential election to take place on 22nd January while the gubernatorial and state house of assembly elections will be on 29th January. The PDP presidential primaries are scheduled to take place in late October.

However, a number of official sources said holding the elections in January, as initially planned, might prove difficult due to the fact that election officials are looking for ways to delay the poll so they could work on a credible voters' roll.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates