Kurdish rebels agree to co-ordinate operations against Iran

On 3rd September, Kurdish militant groups fighting in Turkey and Iran announced that they are co-ordinating their activities, following an upsurge in attacks by the Iranian and Turkish militaries.

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which operates in south-eastern Turkey, and the Free Life Party of Kurdistan (PJAK), fighting in north-western Iran, will combine forces against the Iranian military in response to an onslaught against their safe havens along the borders with Iraq.

The PKK, of which the PJAK is a subsidiary, announced the move, stating that “ the goal of Iran is eliminating the Kurdish people, and not the PJAK party, and these are the reasons that led us to take this decision ”.

Iranian forces, spearheaded by the elite Revolutionary Guard, launched a major offensive against the PJAK in July. Reports indicate that dozens of rebels and Iranian soldiers have been killed in the fighting. Meanwhile, Turkey began its own offensive after the PKK ambushed a number of military convoys in the volatile south-east.

Both operations have seen numerous cross-border attacks into northern Iraq. Turkish warplanes have bombed dozens of targets in the Qandil Mountains in Iraq, whilst Iran has sent ground forces over the border to destroy PJAK bases. The government of Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region has complained about both the military incursions and the continuing provocations by the PKK and PJAK, which have used the mountainous region as a base for many years.

On 9th August, the PKK's leader Murat Karayilan told Kurdish media outlets that he was withdrawing PJAK forces from the Iranian border to PKK camps as a “ unilateral measure to prevent any further attacks ”. In the same statement, however, he announced that PKK forces would be based on the border instead, and did not wish to fight Iran but would do so if Iranian forces attacked PKK units.

The latest statement seems to amount to a declaration of war by the PKK against Iran. This suggests much greater practical co-ordination between the militant groups in the future, which in turn is likely to be met with increased co-operation by the Turkish and Iranian militaries. This raising of stakes will mean more cross-border operations and increased diplomatic tensions, both with the Kurdish authorities in northern Iraq and the central government in Baghdad.

Sources: AFP, Today's Zaman, Hurriyet, PRESS TV

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

PKK Announces Partial Suspension of Ceasefire

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has announced the partial suspension of a unilateral ceasefire announced in August 2010. The militant Kurdish group, which has been fighting for an independent Kurdish State in southeastern Turkey since 1978, said on February 28th that it will “follow an active-defence strategy” but would not launch unprovoked attacks against military targets or strike civilians.

The PKK statement, carried by a Kurdish news agency, laid the suspension of the ceasefire at the feet of the Turkish government. A tentative period of bridge-building towards the country's large and often disaffected Kurdish minority was launched in 2009 by the AKP government in Ankara. The Kurdish opening, however, has gradually stalled amid domestic opposition, a spike in PKK violence, and contradictory signals from the AKP.

The halting of the ceasefire follows January rumours that talks between Abdullah Öcalan, the PKK's ideological leader, who has been in a Turkish jail since 1999, and the government had faltered. Öcalan had stated that he would make an announcement on the ceasefire in March, and appears to have become dissatisfied with the government's approach to the Kurdish issue. Although the PKK statement was not made on behalf of the movement's jailed leader, his influence remains enormous and it is implausible that a decision on the ceasefire would have been made without his blessing.

The fact that the PKK have not announced a wholesale return to violence suggests that this is a shot across the bows. In mid-June the country holds general elections which could see the AKP's dominance of Turkish politics severely tested. One factor in this will be the success or otherwise of Kurdish politicians, who could seriously dent the government's political majority in the southeast. Most are running as independents, since the main Kurdish party, the BDP, is unlikely to cross the 10 per cent vote threshold needed for parliamentary seats.

A resumption of full-scale violence would alarm moderate Kurds in the southeast who oppose the PKK and reinforce the AKP's support base. A carefully calibrated threat, however, could simply emphasise that the government's 'Kurdish opening' has failed to deliver greater cultural autonomy and political representation – undermining government support. Indeed the PKK statement referred to the 10 per cent parliamentary threshold, and insufficient progress on cultural and language issues, as reasons to suspend the ceasefire.

The PKK's announcement is therefore closely connected with domestic politics in the run-up to the election. Expect a slight uptick in attacks but without a return to the urban terror campaigns, attacks on energy infrastructure and widespread fighting that accompanied earlier ceasefire breakdowns.

Sources: Wall Street Journal, Hurriyet, Today's Zaman

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.