South Sudan downplays Al-Bashir's warning

South Sudan has downplayed Sudan President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir's warning to shut-down oil pipelines if the newly succeeded country refuses to pay transit fees. Almost three-quarters of the country's oil, equivalent to about 500,000 b/d, come from the south, but most of the infrastructure and production facilities are based in the north.

Oil is the biggest revenue stream for both sides, currently divvied up at a 50-50 share. The oil sharing agreement expires on 9th July when South Sudan declares independence. Speaking about al-Bashir's statement the South's Information Minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin, said: "We completely regret and are surprised by the decision of the president of the Republic of Sudan that he can close off the pipes that carry the oil from southern Sudan…This is also the oil that also supports 70 per cent of the economy in the north. So we are obliged by the mutual cooperation that we need that oil to flow, so that Sudan can benefit, and the people in south Sudan, who are the owners, also benefit."

Back in January, the South Sudanese voted overwhelmingly in favour of separating from the north. The referendum on independence was part of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended a two decade-long civil war between the two sides.

South Sudan has subsequently accused Sudan of planning to overthrow the South's government. In March, a senior official with the South's ruling party, Pagan Amum, said that Khartoum is arming rebel groups in preparation to destabilise South Sudan and annihilate the region's leaders before secession in July.

The situation was further complicated when Sudan seized the town of Abyei in May. It said that its army acted after 22 northernes were killed in a southern ambush, and took little heed of UN's calls to withdraw its troops from the region immediately. The dispute was later resolved, when the two sides signed an agreement pledging to end fighting.

Abyei was granted a special status under the CPA, which stipulates that both sides have to keep their troops out until a referendum to determine Abyei's future. This, remains one of the key issues yet to be resolved.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Khaleej Times

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Sudan to withdraw troops from Abyei

North and South Sudan have agreed to withdraw unauthorised troops from the disputed Abyei region, according to a UN statement from 8th May.

There have been several clashes in the area in recent months, leading to dozens of deaths.

Both sides accuse the other of sending unauthorised troops and militia to Abyei, violating the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended decades of civil war in Sudan.

In a January independence referendum, South Sudan overwhelmingly voted to secede from the north, and will become a new state on 9th July, 2011.

The oil-rich Abyei region, which straddles the border, was due to have its own referendum on whether to join the north or south in January, but the vote never took place because Khartoum and Juba could not agree on voter eligibility.

The UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) released a statement on Sunday 8th May which said that the troop pullout would start from Tuesday, and should be completed within a week. The region would then be monitored by joint patrols.

The move was agreed at a meeting of northern and southern representatives and headed by UNMIS Force Commander Major General Moses Obi .

A peace accord signed in January also called on both sides to withdraw all forces, excepting the special Joint Integrated Units (JIUs) of northern and southern personnel, and UN peacekeepers.

The so-called Kadugli Agreement – named after the South Kordofan state capital where the agreement was signed – has not been upheld, and it remains to be seen if the most recent agreement is more successful.

South Sudan recently published a new draft constitution which specifically lays claim to Abyei.

Sudan 's President Omar Al-Bashir threatened to withhold recognition of the new state if the claims to Abyei were not dropped.

The north backs the Arab Misseriya tribes, which spend part of the year in Abyei as they search for pastures for their cattle.

The South supports the Dinka Ngok , permanent residents of the region.

Misseriya and Dinka Ngok personnel often clash, alledgedly with the support of the northern and southern armies.

Last week, 14 people were killed at a security checkpoint 10 miles north of Abyei town when fighting broke out between southern police forces and northern elements within the JIUs deployed there.

JIUs were established as part of the 2005 CPA, but according to the International Crisis Group , they have largely failed in their intentions.

They have performed poorly, been involved in numerous large-scale clashes and are characterised by mistrust.

Sources: BBC News, AFP, ICG, Sudan Vision Daily

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

Juba celebrates first full referendum results

The party has started in south Sudan as the first official announcement of the independence referendum results was made on Sunday 30th January and confirmed what most had suspected: the voters had overwhelmingly endorsed secession.

Preliminary results had already secured the vote for secession, but full results show the scale of the victory; according to the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC), 99.57 per cent of voters in the ten states of south Sudan opted to leave the north. In the north, 57.65 per cent of voters chose separation, with 42 per cent voting for unity. There was a relatively low turnout in the north, with only 69,597 of the 116,857 registered voting.

Southern Sudanese voters in Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Egypt, Australia, Canada, the US and the UK mirrored the vote in the south, with 98.55 per cent choosing separation.

These numbers together produce a figure of 98.83 per cent voting for separation, with over 3.8 million votes for separation compared with only 44,888 for unity.

Hundreds of officials and diplomats gathered in Juba at the grave of rebel leader John Garang for the first official announcement of the results.

John Garang was the main Southern leader during the civil war, and he oversaw the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, which brought the civil war to an end and set the country on the path towards the referendum just witnessed. He died in a plane clash not long after signing the CPA.

South Sudan leader Salva Kiir presided over the events held at the John Garang mausoleum. Reacting to the preliminary figures announced, Kiir remarked “ the inhumane treatment southerners were subjected to by the northern regime during the long years of war has clearly manifested itself in this overwhelming vote for separation. ”

He extended his gratitude to the SSRC for their tireless work under ' difficult circumstances ' to deliver the referendum and results on schedule. He also thanked the people of southern Sudan for keeping their promise to vote for the independence of their own country.

" No one has forced anybody to vote but today we are witnessing a historic moment that has never happened since the creation of South Sudan, with the results today, I congratulate all of you sons and daughters of this region, " he said.

He emphasised that an independent south would maintain cordial relations with the north, as well as with its neighbours like Uganda and Kenya.

Kiir said attention should now be focused on the Abyei referendum, popular consultations in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile regions, as well as reolving the conflict in Darfur.

The announcement was met with thousands of southern Sudanese taking to the streets in Juba, the capital of the South, to cheer and dance. The jubilant mood is likely to continue, although Kiir warned people not to remove Sudanese national flags until 9th July, when the flag will be officially lowered in the presence of Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir . Al-Bashir would then ceremoniously take the flag back to Khartoum.

The new country has already chosen its flag and its anthem, but its official name has not yet been determined.

Sources: BBC News, Sudan Tribune

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

South Sudan referendum results suggest secession

Southern Sudan's independence referendum came to a close on the evening of 15th January, and early results already coming in suggest the vast majority have voted for independence from the north.

The chairman of the Southern Sudanese Referendum Commission (SSRC), Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil said that more than 80 per cent of eligible voters in the south had participated, along with 53 per cent in the north and 91 per cent of voters living in the eight other countries hosting polling stations. Sixty per cent of registered voters had to cast their votes in order for the poll to be considered valid.

He said the referendum would be considered "a good result by any international standard."

Full results of the poll are not due until next month, but preliminary results are already trickling in from around the 3000 polling stations in Sudan. The Sudan Tribune has reported that at the Ngor voting centre in Torit, in south Sudan's Eastern Equatoria state only seven votes were cast in favour of unity, while 1718 voted for secession.

Results in Juba appear to be similarly one-sided: early results show that of stations already reporting 20,012 people voted for secession, while 270 voted for unity.

Not all results have been so clear, however. In north Sudan's Greater Omdorman area, for example, where 35 polling stations were located, 4838 people voted for secession while 4420 voted for unity.

Polling also took place in eight countries outside of Sudan: Australia, Canada, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, the UK and the US. Voters in Australia have been given extra time to cast their votes in areas where flooding has hampered the process.

Voters in the UK, the only site in Europe, have reportedly voted 97per cent in favour of secession. Federico Vuni, the SSRC official in charge in London, announced on 16th January that 626 votes were cast in favour of secession, with only 13 for unity.

Similar results were obtained in Canada, where voting took place in Toronto and Calgary, and in Egypt.

US President Barack Obama has welcomed the vote, saying "The sight of so many Sudanese casting their votes in a peaceful and orderly fashion was an inspiration to the world and a tribute to the determination of the people and leaders of south Sudan to forge a better future."

"We urge all parties to continue to urge calm and show restraint as the parties work to complete implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement,” he added.

Washington has promised to remove Sudan from the list of countries that sponsor terrorism by July if it recognises the result of the vote. The US special envoy to Sudan Scott Gration met with foreign minister Ali Karti in Khartoum to discuss with him the future of bilateral relations following the referendum's conclusion.

Karti told reporters after that he hoped for more dialogue on normalising ties and said that more meetings would be held in mid-February to continue discussions. He cautioned, however, that putting new conditions on normalising ties, including Darfur conflict resolution, would not be accepted.

Meanwhile Southern Sudan leader Salva Kiir made his first public address since the vote on Sunday, 16th January, speaking in a Catholic Cathedral in Juba. He urged people to forgive the north for the killings that happened during the civil war that lasted for more than 20 years.

"For our deceased brothers and sisters, particularly those who have fallen during the time of struggle, may God bless them with eternal peace," Kiir said.

"And may we, like Jesus Christ on the cross, forgive those who have forcefully caused their deaths."

An estimated two million people died in the war between Khartoum and rebel groups, most prominently in the south, and millions more were displaced. The independence referendum is the culmination of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005, which ended the civil war.

Sources: BBC News, Sudan Tribune, Sudan Tribune 2

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

The Sudanese Referendum: Secession and the Challenges to Peace

The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) ended the war between the Government of Sudan, based in the northern capital of Khartoum, and the rebel forces that had coalesced in southern Sudan around the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). The CPA afforded the South the right to an exercise of self-determination and set up the semi-autonomous South Sudan, the entity that, pursuant to the referendum scheduled for 9 January 2011, may emerge as the first new independent state in Africa since Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia in 1993. Despite the supposed intention of the government of national unity—formed in Khartoum, led by Omar al-Bashir, and including elements of the SPLM—to work for Sudanese unity on the basis of federation, in all likelihood a vote for southern independence will be made next year.

However, that this outcome will not be thwarted through the efforts of the North, or through the shortcomings and corruption of southern authorities, cannot be taken for granted. With four months before the referendum, an overseeing commission has only recently been established. Moreover, that the vote might not go ahead as planned remains, seemingly, a possibility.

It seems that the North would be loath to permit any secession above all, perhaps, because 75 per cent of Sudanese oil resources are located in the South. In a move that can only serve to heighten the potential for confrontation, both sides have sent forces to Abyei, a border region between the entities that is rich in oil. But, deposits of natural resources aside, it is far from certain that the regime in the North will allow the referendum to pass undisrupted. Few can readily accept the idea that Sudan faces dismemberment in 2011; few Northern politicians can have approved of the granting of the referendum in the first place, a consequence of the provisions of the CPA, themselves implemented under US and Western pressure.

Yet if the vote does not go ahead as planned then the sense will grow in the South that the only viable course is a unilateral declaration of independence, a path that would very likely heighten the potential for war between the North and the South. Indeed, Daniel Deng, the Anglican archbishop of Sudan, has warned that a civil war—with broader, potentially dire consequences for East Africa—may be provoked in the event that the referendum is delayed or otherwise thwarted. In view of this, it is imperative that the referendum goes ahead on the basis that, given the status quo between the Sudans, the CPA and its provisions are the measures essential for regional peace and stability. To forces in the North, however, it would seem that the CPA, and what stems from it, can only be inequitable. As a result, after the war the North has continued its longstanding practice of using proxy militias to destabilise the SPLM and the South. In more recent times it has done so in order to discredit the referendum by questioning the viability of the southern polity.

Most notably, it has used the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), which originated in Uganda, and it has been through the LRA's activities, so the UN estimates, that 25,000 people have been forced from their homes in the South in 2010 alone. Southern elements have begun to arm their own vigilante groups, including the Arrow Boys, in order to fend off LRA's increasing attacks. The LRA exercises considerable control and power in the neighbouring states of Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of Congo and this, amongst other things, highlights the importance of Sudan's neighbouring states and, more broadly, sub-regional geopolitics within these processes.

But regional voices are critical when it comes to the issue of southern secession. The Libyan leader, Mu'ammar Qadhafi , has warned (10th October) that a vote for southern independence would set a dangerous precedent for territorial revision in Africa, a continent in which, of course, many ethnic and linguistic groups remain frustrated in their aspirations to of independent statehood. Several reasons could be employed to explain Qadhafi's support of the North, none perhaps more obvious than the ties of ethnic kinship. Certainly, his recent remarks contrast with those he made in March 2010 in which he advocated the dismemberment of Nigeria, a state to which Libya is no near neighbour. Nonetheless, and Qadhafi's inconsistency set aside, it is hard to imagine that the independence of South Sudan could not bolster—if not outright engender—a precedent. This could only prompt considerable unease among AU members who, since decolonisation, have represented the most vocal proponents of states' rights—to territorial integrity and of non-intervention—at the UN General Assembly, the resolutions of which may be regarded as authentic interpretations of the evolutions of the international law doctrine.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.