Mozambique: 300 members of the opposition MDM party have defected in Nampula Province

At least 300 members of the opposition MDM party have defected in Nampula Province because of an alleged lack of transparency in selecting candidates for MP.

Senior MDM member Jose Manuel de Sousa has, however, dismissed the move, saying that the defectors were driven by self-promotion rather than political motives. He also accused the ruling Frelimo party of orchestrating the move to undermine the MDM’s ambitions in the general elections.

The most senior defector is Juma Molide, who had been the co-ordinator of the MDM election office and played a pivotal role in the MDM's victory in Nampula Province’s mayoral elections last year. He told Mozambique Politics & Security that he was disappointed to find that he was twenty-third on the list of MDM candidates for Nampula Province which, because of its large population, is the electoral swing province with a total of 49 parliamentary seats being contested.

For Molide to find his way in to parliament, the MDM opposition party would have to win about 50% of the Nampula seats. When asked to react to Molide's grievance, de Sousa said that by insisting on a higher place on the list, Molide was implicitly anticipating that the MDM could not win the general elections.

For more news and expert analysis about Mozambique, please see Mozambique Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Caspian Region: Assaubayev family acquisition sees Max Petroleum shares soar

Max Petroleum’s shares have soared in value since the 4 August announcement that the influential Assaubayev family is taking a majority stake in the company. It is hoped that the placing will raise £37 million and enable the continued development of the Sagiz West field.

AGR Holdings, an Assaubayev held company, is investing £37 million of new funds via a share subscription, which will give it a 51% majority ownership of Max Petroleum. The new shares are priced at 1.64p each, a 37% premium to Friday’s closing price, and it has been reported that Aidar Assaubayev and Kanat Assaubayev will join the Max Petroleum board.

For an in-depth analysis of this issue, its ramifications for the region, and a feature on the Assaubayev family, please refer to this month’s upcoming issue of Caspian Focus.

Cameroon: Boko Haram abducts wife of President Paul Biya's security icon

Sunday 27 July was a prodigious day in Cameroon after Boko Haram’s unprecedented and deadly attack upon the homes of two key Cameroonian politicians in the country’s Far-North Region. 

Besides partially exposing the country’s security weakness, the attack was also a pertinent reminder to the authorities in Yaoundé that Boko Haram is becoming increasingly ambitious, organised, and deadly. Ultimately, the attack that left 18 dead and saw a further 17 kidnapped, including the wife of Cameroon’s Vice Prime Minister, was an ominous warning to President Paul Biya’s government that it is in a battle against a tenacious enemy that is willing and able to use alternative tactics to strike Cameroon’s most senior politicians.

The attack took place in Kolofata, in the Far-North Region of Cameroon, home to the country’s Vice Prime Minister, Amadou Ali, and a prominent Muslim leader and critic of Boko Haram, Seini Boukar Lamine, who is also the town’s mayor. Eyewitnesses stated that the attackers arrived in a convoy of eight 4x4 pickups vehicles and several motorbikes. The militants precisely targeted the two politicians’ residences, firing a rocket-propelled grenade into Amadou Ali’s home before leaving with his wife as their prisoner. 

The attacks came on the fifth day of a running gun battle between Boko Haram and Cameroon soldiers in the north of the country. Cameroon has deployed more than a thousand soldiers along its border to help combat the Nigerian armed group, which last week launched a massive assault on the north-east Nigerian town of Damboa near the Cameroonian border, displacing more than 15,000 people. The group gained international notoriety after kidnapping more than 270 schoolgirls in northern Nigeria in April, but has been active in the country for more than 12 years.

There were very specific reasons for the attack and the kidnapping in Cameroon. For further detailed analysis on why Boko Haram targeted Amadou Ali - and on his pivotal role in Cameroon’s current and future political and security hierarchy – see Cameroon Politics & Security – 30.07.14  

Tanzania: 7 July Grenade attack in Arusha linked to a feud within the gemstone industry

Menas Associates has learned from one of our sources in Arusha that the 7 July attack on the Verma Restaurant at Arusha’s Gymkhana Club may have been related to a feud within the Tanzanite gemstone industry.

When the initial blast occurred, local news sources sought to identify this attack and an attack on 3 July attack - when an improvised bomb was hurled into the home of a leading Muslim cleric which wounded two people - as part of a series of bombings using home-made explosives. 

The 7 July attack, however, is now thought to be an isolated incident because both the explosives and method used are incongruous with the other attacks. Eyewitnesses confirmed that the attack was conducted by two unknown assailants who threw a canister through the Verna Restaurant’s window as they drove past on a motorcycle. Police officer Issaya Mngulu told the AFP news agency that "We do not know who the attackers are, but we do not suspect any involvement with al-Shabab."

It is now understood that the attack deliberately targeted a group of gemstone dealers including a staff member of Tanzanite One, which is the country’s largest Tanzanite mining company. Following the attack, we have learnt that one of the company’s sales agents has resigned citing threats to her personal security. 

Tanzanite One is understood to have been producing very little since the buy-in by Tanzania’s State Mining Company (STAMICO). Under the conditions of the buy-in, STAMICO promised to address the long-running issue of underground security. These issues have, however, not been tackled and armed clashes with small scale private-sector miners operating in neighbouring concessions have become a regular occurrence.

For more news and expert analysis about East Africa, please see East Africa Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Algeria: Sonatrach's latest scandal

On 30 July we reported that Sonatrach’s CEO, Abdelhamid Zerguine, had been sacked and replaced by Said Sahnoun, the former Vice President for Production. Sahnoun will be Sonatrach’s ninth CEO since President Abdelaziz Bouteflika first took office in 1999 and the fifth in the last four years.

Although no reasons have been given for this surprise move, which adds to the reputation of Sonatrach’s management instability, it had been hypothesised that the open conflict between Zerguine and Energy Minister, Youcef Yousfi, over divergent visions for the exploitation of shale gas and the marketing strategy for natural gas in Europe was the primary cause. 

Our sources in Algeria indicate, however, that Zerguine was sacked because he resisted pressure from above to conduct corrupt under-the-counter deals of the kind that gave rise to the “Sonatrach scandal” in 2010.

The key name in this new scandal appears to be Ali Haddad, an extremely wealthy and powerful businessman who is a close friend and associate of the president’s brother, Saïd Bouteflika. Ali Haddad played a key role in financing and thereby ensuring Bouteflika’s re-election for a fourth term in April 2014.  

The price for his support now appears to be that his massive construction company, Groupe ETRHB, is given more Sonatrach contracts.

It is too early to know how foreign IOCs will react to this sudden development.  If it deters them from participating in the current licensing round and Algeria’s much-trumpeted unconventional oil and gas exploration and development, the cost and damage to Algeria will be no less great than the original 2010 scandal.

For a comprehensive analysis of this emerging scandal please refer to Algeria Politics & Security – 01.08.14

Iraq: Bitter-sweet developments for KRG as US Judge rules that US$100 million oil dispute should be settled in Iraq

On 29 July we reported that a US judge, in response to a lawsuit filed by the Baghdad government, had signed an order to seize the US$100 million crude oil cargo from the United Kalavrvta tanker anchored off the Texan coast. It now appears that there have been some bitter-sweet developments for the KRG.

While US Magistrate Nancy Johnson issued an order to seize the tanker’s cargo, she also told lawyers for Iraq that the dispute should be resolved through the Iraqi court system. As the tanker is anchored 60 miles offshore, 50 miles outside of federal jurisdiction, the cargo cannot be seized.

Although the inability to seize the tanker’s US$100 million cargo is an obvious plus for the KRG it has come at a heavy price. Prior to the seizure order the KRG had managed to keep the end-buyers of its oil anonymous. However, the main US customer for the cargo has now been named as Lyondell Basell, who has subsequently stated that it would not take it, or any subsequent shipments, until the matter had been resolved by Erbil and Baghdad.  

The filing in federal court, Houston, stated that Iraq's central government has asked Iraq's Federal Supreme Court to block the Kurdistan Regional Government from exporting any crude until its ownership can be determined. The central government contends that the oil is not the sole property of the Kurdistan region of Iraq but belongs to the country as a whole. The KRG, however, asserts that its independent oil sales are their efforts to recoup the funds allocated to it, which the Iraqi central government has failed to supply them with.

The latest legal challenge follows Iraq’s bringing of criminal charges against the Kurdistan government in May, alleging theft of oil revenues. However, Kurdistan has failed to appear in court to address the charges and this "failure to comply with the summonses has effectively blocked the Federal Supreme Court from hearing the merits of the case." Harold Watson, a Houston lawyer representing Kurdistan, did not have an immediate comment on the filing when contacted by Reuters.

The U.S. government has expressed fears that independent oil sales from Kurdistan could contribute to the breakup of Iraq as the government in Baghdad struggles to contain the ultra-hardline Islamic State, a group of Sunni Islamist insurgents who have captured vast areas of the country.

Washington has pressured companies and governments not to buy crude from the KRG, but it has stopped short of banning U.S. firms from buying it outright.

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria: President Jonathan sacks NNPC's GMD

On 1 August it was announced that President Goodluck Jonathan had dismissed both Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s (NNPC) Group Managing Director (GMD), Andrew Yakubu, and Hamidu Namtari, Managing Director of the NNPC’s upstream subsidiary, Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC).

The President’s special media and publicity adviser, Dr. Reuben Abati, released a statement naming Borno State’s Dr. Joseph Dawha as NNPC’s new GMD and Anambra State’s Anthony Ugonna Muoneke as NPDC’s new GMD. The statement continued that “All the appointments are with immediate effect,” but refused to comment on the reasons behind the dismissals. 

Reports in Nigeria, however, suggest that the dismissals are linked to the allegations by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s former governor, Lamido Sanusi, over the NNPC’s misuse of public funds and an upcoming PWC audit of NNPC finances and revenue losses. 

The statement continued that President Jonathan had approved a further shake-up of NNPC management with Ms. Aisha Mata Abdurrahman reassigned to the corporation’s Commercial and Investment GMD and Dr. Attahiru Yusuf’s appointment as its Business Development Group Executive Director.

This week’s issue of Nigeria Politics & Security and the August issue of Nigeria Focus will provide expert analysis about the changes and the reasons behind them.