Menas Associates

Iran: Turkey's price decrease request

2012-01-31T03:34:00.000-08:00

National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) managing director Javad Oji acknowledged that Iran has received a request from Turkey to decrease the gas it exports to that country. Oji said Iran is looking into the request and plans to take measures.

He also noted that the government has no plans to increase gas rates with the implementation of the second phase of the subsidies reform plan.

Oji's remarks followed those of Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz, who said that Iran had rejected its demand for cheaper natural gas and that Ankara might resort to international arbitration: 'We voiced our discomfort to them [Iranian officials] over the price of the natural gas we import and told them that the prices are high … so an international arbitration court seems inevitable.'

The announcement that Iran and Turkey are engaged in a spat over gas rates was a surprise, particularly as it came amid diplomatic visits by Iranian officials to Ankara. Iran views its gas exports to Turkey strategically, given that the country could provide a gateway to the European gas market.

Evidently, Ankara has leverage as it imports gas from both Iran and Russia. Turkey may also be taking advantage of the international pressure currently being applied against Iran in order to bargain for better conditions. Tehran will not be interested in prolonging a dispute over gas prices with one of its most important customers.

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Caspian cooperation discussed with Iran

2012-01-31T02:25:00.000-08:00

Iran's deputy foreign minister Mohammad Mehdi Akhundzade visited Ashgabat this month. Although nothing concrete came out of the visit, he was apparently there to ensure that the two states are on the same page when it comes to the situation in the Caspian.

In press reports released after the visit, President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov said that Turkmenistan “stands for establishing a constructive dialogue in the Caspian basin” and called for “a coordinated, mutually acceptable decision on the status of this unique basin”. The usual call for the Caspian to be developed “in an atmosphere of peace and stability” was also made.

Relations between Tehran and Ashgabat have usually been good, but disagreements over the delimitation of the Caspian have occasionally strained ties. Iran has also sometimes been wary about Turkmenistan's role as a transport hub for US military supplies to Afghanistan and its friendly relations with Israel. In November an

Iranian MP accused Turkmenistan (as well as Azerbaijan) of being a base for Mossad.

The visit may also be linked with Iran's new Caspian oil and gas field, Sardar Jangal (see page 12). The precise location of the field has not been revealed but it may lie close to the maritime boundary with Turkmenistan, so Akhundzade's visit may have been intended to provide reassurances that it would not be drilling in disputed waters.

The trip may also have been aimed at securing more work for Iran's North Drilling Company in light of tightening international sanctions. Earlier this month Iranian oil officials announced that Iran had earned $300 million over the past five years by drilling 30 wells in the Turkmen sector of the Caspian, and plans to build more

wells in the years ahead. With new US and EU sanctions choking the Iranian economy, finding as many sources of foreign income as possible is a priority – this could raise complications for Turkmenistan as it seeks to boost the involvement of Western firms in its energy industry.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt: Salafi rebuked by Speaker

2012-01-27T06:24:00.000-08:00

The leader of the house - that is the eldest MP - Dr Mahmoud El Sakka opened the first session before the election of the speaker and his two deputies. Dr El-Sakka, 81, a member of Wafd, asked for recognition of the more than 800 Egyptians who had been killed in the protests that led to the overthrow of the former regime. “I invite the distinguished assembly to stand and read the fatiha (Muslim prayer) in memory of the martyrs of the 25 January revolution ... because the blood of the martyrs is what brought this day.”

Each new MP then had to read the oath. This process was going smoothly until Mamdouh Ismail of the Al-Asala, a Salafist party, added the phrase “in whatever does not contradict God's law”. The speaker rebuked him and told him to stick to the original text.

Prime Minister Kamal El-Ganzouri, who is not a member of parliament, also marked what has become known as 25 January Revolution Day. He commemorated those who gave their lives: “They have sacrificed for the sake of the nation and for achieving freedom, democracy and social justice.” But he showed also where his loyalties lay by paying obeisance to the army: “I salute the brave military council for meeting its promises.”

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: President Jonathan sacks police chief

2012-01-26T08:17:00.000-08:00

Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan has sacked the country's chief of police Hafiz Ringim, pushing him into early retirement. The move comes after a number of attacks perpetrated by the Islamist sect Boko Haram, the latest of which on Friday 20th January killed 185 people.

The group is fighting to overthrow the government and impose Islamic law around the country.

According to AFP, Jonathan's decision was intended to meet "emerging internal security challenges". The calls for Ringim's resignation have been ongoing since a man suspected to be behind the Christmas Day bomb attacks on several churches escaped from police custody just weeks ago.

According to AP, Jonathan's office released a statement saying Ringim had been placed on "terminal leave" pending his planned retirement in the coming months. It went on to say that Mohammed Abubakar has been appointed as his replacement "as a first step towards the comprehensive reorganisation and repositioning of the Nigeria police force to make it more effective and capable of meeting emerging internal security challenges".

According to the document, all six of Ringim's deputies had also been approved for immediate retirement.

Sources: AP, AFP, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

Iraq:Two bomb attacks leave 13 dead

2012-01-26T05:51:00.000-08:00

Iraqi officials say that 13 people have been killed in two separate bomb attacks. According to reports, two brothers - both police officers – and at least eight of their relatives were killed following a house bombing in Musayyib, south of Baghdad, which is predominantly populated by Shi'a Muslims.

The Musayyib attack is said to have taken place at 0400 (0100 GMT), when several roadside bombs surrounding the house were detonated. According to AFP, the two dead policemen were Ahmed and Jihad Zuwaiyin. Six children are also believed to have been killed. Four people were reported to be injured and six homes nearby were also damaged.

In a similar but separate bomb attack, three people were also killed in Kirkuk. As well as the three fatalities, five others were injured.

Attacks of this nature have risen since US troops withdrew from Iraq at the end of last year.

Speaking to AFP, Police Brigadier General Adil Zain al-Abidine said the attack in the northern city of Kirkuk was caused by a motorcycle bomb parked near a primary school in the city centre.

These newest outbreaks of violence come amid a politically and socially fragile situation in Iraq, which has been made worse by governmental in-fighting and volatility.

Sources: AFP, Reuters, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

Libya: Italy wants to resume its favoured trading relationship

2012-01-26T02:02:00.000-08:00

The Italian government is pressing hard for the endorsement of the contracts which were signed between Italy and Libya following the 2008 bilateral Treaty of Friendship. In pursuit of this goal, Italy's Prime Minister Mario Monti and his entourage of diplomats, including Foreign Minister Giulio Terzi and Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola, and businessmen visited Libya on 21st January for talks. The Italian authorities are hopeful that new offers of aid to Libya – including the strengthening of the national police force and improving security - will enable the original agreements to be restored.

Libya will receive US$5 billion from Italy over the next 20 years, including several major contracts of which the largest single project is for the construction of the coastal highway.

Meanwhile, Italy's ENI has reported that bilateral oil sector relations are very cordial. Its CEO, Paolo Scaroni, reported that ENI's output has now returned to pre-war levels of 260,000 b/d. The company has also signed a memorandum of understanding to undertake €380 million worth of social projects in Libya.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Ghana: Controversy over non-promotions of key police officers

2012-01-25T07:31:00.000-08:00

Against the backdrop of the on-going cocaine for baking powder saga, which has previously be discussed in Ghana Politics & Security, and the controversial alleged role of police officials in the disappearance of a cocaine exhibit, Ghana's police force is now wracked by another controversy – albeit one that is internal to its operations. A recent round of police promotions of six officers from the rank of deputy commissioner of police to commissioner of police, which was announced by President John Atta Mills earlier this month, has been criticised for not including five high achieving officers.

According to local press, these five include the team leader of a successful investigation into a local serial killer who was responsible for over 30 deaths; the supervisor of an operation that seized almost 600kg of cocaine worth approximately US$38 million; a former director of the Ghanaian criminal investigations department with a mandate covering drug crime, terrorism and trafficking; and officers with a track record of success in international missions under United Nations task force and missions.

In particular some of these officers - who, under existing police policy, are usually promoted every four years - have not been promoted for around a decade. Specific reasons for their exclusion have not yet been released so one can only speculate whether or not there is an unsavoury reason but, given the current pressure on some sectors of the police, further internal police tension is unnecessary.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: Priority for national pipeline constructors

2012-01-25T03:57:00.000-08:00

Domestic pipe manufacturers will be given priority when Sonatrach issues procurement tenders for future pipeline construction projects. In his lengthy press conference at the end of December, Energy Minister Youcef Yousfi confirmed that he had instructed Sonatrach to ensure that this happened. The renewed emphasis on this appears to be related to the financial difficulties being suffered by ArcelorMittal's Annaba-based subsidiary TSS El Hadjar.

In principle, domestic producers and service providers have a competitive advantage built into public tender legislation. They are entitled to win with bids that are more expensive than those of international competitors. However, Sonatrach has recently been subjected to high level criticism of its failure to issue pipeline manufacturing contracts to a key local provider.

On 28th December, the powerful general secretary of the Union Générale des Travailleurs Algériens (UGTA) Abdelmadjid Sidi Saïd wrote a public letter to Yousfi about the difficulties faced by TSS El Hadjar in obtaining pipeline sales contracts from Sonatrach.

In his response, the minister refused to accept Saïd's view that the company had been subject to “exclusion” from such contracts. He said he preferred to approach the problem from a technical and qualitative point of view. “We are ready to work with the national companies on condition that they respect qualitative standards and manufacture all diameters of pipe that are needed,” he said. In addition, Yousfi said that energy companies had been issued with guidelines to use locally manufactured pipes, but that these guidelines also set standards on quality and diameter.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Vietnam: Journalist arrested for bribing police

2012-01-20T05:40:00.000-08:00

A campaigning anti-corruption reporter, Nguyen Van Khuyen, of well-respected southern newspaper Tuoi Tre News, was taken into custody by police in mid-January for bribing a police officer. He paid traffic police officer Huynh Minh Duc around $715 for the return of a confiscated motorcycle but was in fact 'assuming the identity' of a traffic offender in order to publish an excoriating report on police corruption in Vietnam.

'He should not be charged with bribery because of what he did in the course of an undercover investigation,' Reporters Without Borders said in a press release. 'He was acting as a reporter, not for personal gain.' The organisation estimates that he may be in prison for four months while authorities investigate. The police officer was suspended after the story ran but the journalist was still suspended from his paper in early December, apparently at the behest of the police.

Police corruption is a hot topic in Vietnam and the traffic police, who regularly threaten citizens and solicit bribes, are widely hated, to the point at which recent camera phone footage of a dying traffic police officer earned praise on various video sites.

Exposure of corruption by the press is sometimes encouraged by the government as it understands the anger it generates. Most targets are not main players and most journalists know who they can and cannot attack.

For more news and expert analysis about Vietnam, please see Vietnam Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: A fire rocks Chevron's oil rig in Bayelsa State

2012-01-19T05:50:00.000-08:00

On Monday 16th January, a fire– thought to have been caused by a gas leakage – ripped through Chevron's oil rig in Bayelsa State, leaving two workers missing.

After several days of intensified searching, Chevron released a statement extending its condolence to the families of the two missing people. The company has, however, accounted for the remainder of workers, who had been present on the rig and a nearby barge when the fire broke out. It said two workers were treated for minor injuries.

The investigation into the fire is ongoing. There is little evidence of sabotage, and the company believes it was caused by equipment failure. It has been established that the explosion occurred between 4.30am and 5am and was reported to be an accident. Some of the evacuated workers confirmed that the drilling exercise encountered technical problems while working on a new gas well head.

Speaking about the incident, Chevron's General Manager of Public and Government Affairs said: "There was no explosion. It was a fire incident at the Finuwa Field. The name of the rig is KS Endeavour. It is owned by Fode Drilling. All workers are being evacuated."

Sources: Upstream, Afrique en Ligne, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

Libya: Bringing the militias to heel?

2012-01-19T05:29:00.000-08:00

Maj Gen Mohamed Al-Mangoush certainly has his work cut out. His main task is to build the Libyan army into a credible force that can bring the militias under its control. Doing so will not be easy. As things currently stand, with its handful of small units, the army is a David to the militias' Goliath. Convincing powerful revolutionary leaders to hand in their weapons or to come under the command of national military officers is an uphill struggle and, unless the army gets some serious clout behind it, unlikely to succeed.

Meanwhile the violence continues. It is true that the militias have a reduced presence on the ground and that the number of checkpoints has been cut back. This does not mean, however, that the militias have stopped throwing their weight around. As the clashes that erupted this month demonstrate, in the absence of a strong authority rival militias continue to take the law into their own hands.

Moreover, the presence of so many armed young men with little else to do does not bode well for future security. Despite the schemes currently being devised by the new authorities to absorb militia members – such as the

Planning Ministry's recent proposal to pay those who join the official security structures a salary of LYD600 a month – there is still no indication that the national army is proving any more attractive than the militias.

As one young man from Benghazi who is still holed up in Tripoli explained, "It [the fighting] was really exciting and fun most of the time and I made some great friends!" The fact that hundreds of uniformed soldiers took to the streets this month and staged a demonstration outside the Central Bank branch in Benghazi to demand their salaries can have done little to help matters. The demonstrators declared that the new government should focus its attention on building a new army and not on giving cash rewards to the revolutionaries.

The police are doing little better than the army in the effort to recruit revolutionaries. According to one report, 24 hours after the police force opened its doors for militia members to sign up only 100 had done so.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya: Lebanon still keen to know what happened to Shi'a cleric Imam Musa Sadr

2012-01-18T08:42:00.000-08:00

The change of government in Libya has done nothing to dampen the Lebanese demand for information about the Shi'a cleric, Imam Musa Sadr, and two colleagues who disappeared in suspicious circumstances in Libya on 3rd August 1978. The loss of one of Lebanon's most senior Shi'a clerics gave rise to accusations that the Libyan government of Colonel Qadhafi was complicit in his disappearance. Tripoli has always claimed that Sadr and his companions left Libya on a scheduled flight to Italy but never arrived.

In the latest move, Foreign Minister Adnan Mansur arrived in Tripoli on 12th January; the first high level Lebanese delegation to visit Libya in more than 30 years.

The Libyans have offered to form a new joint commission with the Lebanese to determine the events at the time of Sadr's disappearance. Head of Political Affairs Fathi Baja has reported, however, that Libya has no new information.

The new government obviously hopes that the tense bilateral relations since 1978 can be successfully ended by presumably paying compensation to the relatives of the three men involved. The situation is, however, currently complicated by Libyan visa requirements which are not available to Lebanese citizens, but these sanctions are expected to be removed.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Ghana: Attorney General's accusations lead to a political storm

2012-01-18T06:06:00.000-08:00

Recent allegations by Attorney General Martin Amidu, that there are senior National Democratic Congress (NDC) government appointees who are committing “gargantuan crimes” against Ghanaians, has led to attacks on him from both NDC members and the opposition including the minority Peoples National Convention (PNC). The former demand that Amidu resign following his allegations while the latter demand that he name the guilty individuals. Amidu also complained of allegedly coordinated attacks from the “rented” press ordered by, or in support of key NDC members, in response to his “gargantuan crime” remarks.

The NDC's discomfort at his claim is illustrated by its deputy general secretary Kofi Adam's statement that the allegations could harm the party's election prospects because comments like this “can even cost the party an election, it can reduce and trust that people have in the governance system” and follow similar criticisms from the Deputy Minister of Information. What led to Amidu's allegation is unclear but it appears that they may have been in connection with the Alfred Woyome issue described below. Also perhaps in response to criticisms and negative coverage from newspapers - such as the Daily Post, National Democrat and Ghanaian Lens (which he describes as being in the pockets of the NDC) - which Amidu believes are, at the behest of an unnamed government minister, perhaps unhappy that he is pursuing corrupt or “criminal” party members.

Amidu is no party outsider having served as deputy attorney general under the Rawlings Administration and even being President John Atta Mill's running mate for the 2000 elections. His accusations are therefore re-shining a light on the NDC's internal divisions are his comments are likely to be used by the opposition against the government during this election year.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Christmas Day bomber escapes from custody

2012-01-18T03:15:00.000-08:00

Nigerian police officials have said that a key suspect in the Christmas Day bombing that killed at least 38 people has escaped from custody. Kabiru Sokoto, who is allegedly a member of the Islamist sect Boko Haram, was arrested on Saturday 14th January in Abuja. He escaped the following day as police attempted to search his residence outside the capital city.

Authorities say that Sokoto planned the 25th December bombing of St Theresa Catholic church in Madalla. They released a statement, saying the police commissioner responsible for the overseeing of the suspect has been arrested, due to alleged negligence.

The statement went on to say: “The police view this development as a serious negligence on the part of the commissioner of police and have since queried and suspended him from duty."

Sokoto was the only major suspect to be arrested on suspicion of the bombing, and other similar attacks around the country. President Goodluck Jonathan has voiced concerns that some members of the Islamist sect have infiltrated government offices and security agencies.

Some suspect police involvement with the sect, who is reportedly responsible for at least 74 killings this year alone.

Sources: BBC News, AFP, AP

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

Five policemen killed at a checkpoint near Iraq's Jordanian and Syrian borders

2012-01-18T02:04:00.000-08:00

Reports have emerged that five policemen have been killed at a checkpoint near Iraq's Jordanian and Syrian borders. According to reports, gunmen in the western province of Anbar attacked police officers that were guarding the highway that links the country to Jordan.

One report said that an attacker was also killed in the clash. The attack follows a similar onslought on a government compound, which killed seven people in the provincial capital of Ramadi.

The security situation in Iraq seems more precarious than ever. Violence has been on a rise, with security and Shi'a religious congregations being the key targets. There has also been a marked downturn in the country's political progress since the withdrawal of US troops at the end of last year.

Most recently, an arrest warrant was issued for Vice President Tariq Hashemi on terrorism charges. He fled to the Kurdish-controlled region of northern Iraq, and has denied the accusations against him.

The warrant has, however, sparked a political crisis as the biggest bloc in parliament accused Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki of using the law to monopolise power.

Sources: AFP, Reuters, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

Egypt: Hosni Mubarak's trial resumes

2012-01-17T06:42:00.000-08:00

Following the reopening of former president Hosni Mubarak's trial in Cairo, his defence team began arguing the case. Mubarak stands accused of ordering the killing of demonstrators during national unrest, which led to his resignation last year.

According to Egypt's State media, the defence's arguments are expected to be heard over the course of three days.

Prosecutors insist Mubarak face the death penalty, along with his co-defendants, the former interior minister Minister Habib al-Adly and six senior policemen. Mubarak's two sons, Gamal and Alaa, are facing separate charges of corruption in the same trial.

The former Egyptian ruler was wheeled into court on a stretcher. His laywers said Mubarak was unable to be upright for fear of suffering a stroke.

The charges against the defendant are as follow:

Hosni Mubarak: Conspiring in killing of protesters (15 years in prison or death penalty); abusing power to amass wealth (5-15 years)
Alaa and Gamal: abusing power to amass wealth (5-15 years)
Al-Adly and six police officials: conspiring in killing of protesters (15 years or death penalty)
Business mogul Hussein Salem: tried in absentia for corruption (5-15 years in prison).

According to a number of Egyptian sources, Mubarak's lawyer Farid al-Deeb is expected to reveal several surprises as he makes his case; however, he refused to elaborate when speaking to Al-Madry Al-Youm newspaper. He said: "Nobody knows what I will say."

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, AP

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Libya: Clashes between rival factions leave two dead

2012-01-17T03:45:00.000-08:00

A weekend of clashes between rival factions, in the town of Gharyan about 80km south of Tripoli, has left at least two people dead and more than 40 injured. The authorities say they are now in a process of putting together a force to disarm the supposed Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi loyalists.

Speaking to the BBC, local officials in the town said they feel powerless in controlling their own revolutionary groups. According to a number of other sources, in the hills surrounding the town, revolutionary forces are again battling in full force, their anti-aircraft guns mounted on the backs of pickup trucks heading west toward the town of Assabia.

It is thought that the fighting began on Friday 13th January and continued throuought the weekend. The following day, Libya's Defence Minister Osama al-Juweili travelled to Gharyan to try to encourage a ceasefire but to no avail.

On Sunday 15th January, a group of tribal elders arrived in Gharyan in an attempt to mediate in the conflict and negotiate a prisoner exchange. The confrontations, however, continue.

Despite government's calls to disarm, various factions remain at large and seem to have no intention of joining the national army – an initiative proposed by Tripoli.

Some fear that there is a danger of a civil war, if the militias do not give up their weapons. The situation remains tense and the country's future is still unclear.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Iran warns “Arab neighbour countries” against boosting oil production

2012-01-16T08:40:00.000-08:00

Following a joint request by the US and the EU to curb its oil production, Iran has warned Gulf nations against boosting their energy generation.

According to Sharq daily newspaper Iran's representative to Opec Mohammad Ali Khatibi said "our Arab neighbour countries should not co-operate" with the US and European countries. He continued that any such move would not be perceived as "friendly", adding that if they give "the green light to replacing Iran's oil these countries would be the main culprits for whatever happens in the region - including the Strait of Hormuz".

US has been seeking the support of Asian nations – some of the biggest investors in Iran including, China, India, Japan and South Korea – to encourage Tehran to reduce its oil exports and abide by the sanctions.

The oil needs of these fast pace developing countries are growing equally as rapidly and thus cuts in imports from Tehran have to be substituted by an increased supply from other sources.

China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has recently held talks with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, China's biggest oil supplier. At the same time, South Korean Prime Minister Kim Hwang-sik visited the region over the weekend, meeting leaders in Oman and the United Arab Emirates to discuss oil.

Although Asian nations are yet to make or announce cuts in oil imports from Iran, there are already fears of shortfalls. Not only that many are worried about the fact that Iran's supplies may not be substituted with another source, which will mean an increase in prices.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, WSJ

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

Algeria: Ahmed Ouyahia will not stand down as Prime Minister

2012-01-16T02:51:00.000-08:00

The congress of Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia's RND party was being held on Friday 6th th January as we went to press last week. It also came a few days after opposition party spokesmen had called on President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to appoint a new Prime Minister and Cabinet before the forthcoming parliamentary elections on the grounds that the present incumbents could not guarantee a fair election.

Ouyahia gave a typically belligerent response. He announced on Saturday 7 th that he would not resign in the face of opposition parties' demands for a technocratic government to guide the country through the May elections. “I will remain in my post and will not resign,” he told reporters. “The decision to disband the government belongs to the person who nominated it,” he added, referring to the president.

The most politically relevant moment of the Congress was Ouhayia's questioning of Bouteflika's presidency. Rumours, put out by the president's camp, that Bouteflika is considering a fourth presidential term after the next presidential elections, scheduled for 2014, have been circulating for the last few weeks. In his address to the RND Congress, Ouyahia questioned whether Bouteflika should seek a fourth term. Ouyahia asked the Congress whether another term for the ailing 75 year-old would serve Algeria's interests.

The statement was interpreted by RND members and reporters that Ouyahia was laying down his marker for the 2014 presidential election. Ouyahia, 61, told reporters, however, that it was too early for him to address whether he would run in the 2014 presidential election.

In 2008, the constitution was changed to scrap the two-term limit of presidential terms, thus allowing Bouteflika to run for a third term. Ouyahia defended his support for that change, saying that the country needed Bouteflika at a time when Algeria was recovering from its 1990s insurgency.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Government fight-back failing

2012-01-13T07:55:00.000-08:00

Minister of Finance Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Minister of Petroleum Resources Diezani Alison-Madueke, and the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Sanusi Lamido Sanusi have all given interviews in an effort to persuade citizens to give up the protests.

So far, this strategy has not worked and it appears that the interviews may in fact have had the effect of firing up the protesters' anger against the Federal Government. As each day of the strike passes, the government's stance continues to be one of defiance. Minister for Information Labaran Maku stated that the Federal Government would not be coerced into rescinding the decision.

This may be mere “fighting talk”. For each day that the strike continues, the country's economy continues to suffer. Analysts estimate that if the strike continues at least until 13 th January, the economy would have lost around N1.2 trillion (US$7.4 billion), an amount not far short of the N1.4 trillion (US$8.65 billion) the Federal Government estimated it would save by withdrawing the subsidy.

For many of the young, educated upper and middle-class protestors, the battle isn't only on the streets but has extended to social networking sites, including Facebook and Twitter, and to instant messaging platforms like the Blackberry Messenger (BBM) service. Activists have used such media to exchange information and to disseminate facts and figures supporting the protests.

One such fact is that the mass transit buses, which President Goodluck Jonathan commissioned over the weekend as part of the Federal Government's “palliative measures” to ease the impact of the subsidy removal, are woefully inadequate. Jonathan had announced that the Federal Government had purchased 1,600 mass transit buses but only 1,100 buses have been commissioned which has left observers with the unanswered question of what happened to the other 500.

Most importantly, the inadequacy of such a gesture as a palliative measure has been pointed out. With a population of around 160 million, the provision of 1,600 buses translates into one bus for every 100,000 Nigerians. Activists have also been analysing the 2012 budget for evident waste and, in particular, the recurrent expenditure provisions.

A major point of contention is that the government is asking ordinary Nigerians to bear the brunt of the increase in the cost of living caused by the subsidy removal at a time when the government is still largely wasteful and extravagant in its spending.

Some figures to have been bandied about include the budgetary provision of a feeding allowance for the Presidential Villa of N1 million (US$6,180) per day; N200 million (US$1.2 million) to “water the gardens” of the Presidential Villa; N1.7 billion (US$10.5 million) on trips; and N1.3 billion (US$8 million) on office stationery. Other controversial appropriations include: overhauling of Aso Rock powerhouse generators for N127.5 million (US$786,000); and renovation and refurbishment of the family wing of the main residence at the Presidential Villa at N512.4 million (US$3.2 million).

The list really is endless. Although President Jonathan has announced that there will be some cutbacks, such as a 25 per cent reduction in the basic salaries of political office holders and cutbacks on foreign trips, many ordinary Nigerians are unconvinced that these cuts are commensurate with the hardships caused by the subsidy removal. In any case, it is a well-established fact that one of the largest sources of official income for political holders is not the basic salary but their myriad allowances, which are often far above their basic salaries.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt: Constitution to be drafted before presidential elections

2012-01-13T03:28:00.000-08:00

Further details have emerged about last year's talks between the military rulers and political parties, including the Islamists and liberals, about the timing of the presidential election. Should it be after the drafting of a new constitution or before? According to the Islamist lawyer and presidential hopeful Mohamed Selim El-Awa, who confirmed the meetings took place on 22nd November, it was agreed that the constitution will be drafted first and the presidential elections be held later.

There is logic in this. How can an Egyptian president be elected before a constitution is drawn up to define his powers and responsibilities?

The secularists fear, however, that those who will draw up the constitution will seek to introduce a greater Islamisation of legal code. Last month a group of activists put forward a proposal to bring the presidential elections forward to the end of March.

El-Awa, who is related by marriage to a member of the ruling army council, said that Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) had been represented by the army chief of staff Sami Anan, who in effect is the number two in the hierarchy. He met representatives of the FJP, Al Nour, Al Wasat, the liberal Al Wafd and the Democratic Front party.

For its part, the advisory council, which was appointed by the military council, argued that a consensus has to be reached by all parties before the holding of presidential elections. Given the starkly opposing positions it is hard to see how such a consensus can be reached. Instead, the Islamists, with the greatest share of the popular vote, and the military, with the firepower, are in agreement.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Militias' future may be in the security forces

2012-01-12T06:31:00.000-08:00

The future of the militias is closely tied into the National Transitional Council's (NTC) decision to co-opt them into the security forces. The apparent force of personality of two military leaders –head of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council, Abdullah Nakir, and head of the capital's military council Abdelhakim Belhadj - demonstrates the need for the continuing support for these leaders who certainly do not represent the authorities. It must be expected that conflict will break out if the militias are unconvinced of fair treatment.

The 3rd January inter-militia conflict in Tripoli, which reportedly led to the death of five militiamen, turns out to have been rather different from that reported in the press. Menas Associates sources in Libya understand that although the clash - in which two and not five died - was initially reported as being between members of the Tripoli and Misrata militias, the latter was in fact made up of a group of criminals with no real attachment to the revolutionary movement. Mistakes of this kind by the non-local militias will offer opportunities for further hostilities.

The issue of law and order is confused. The courts are, in fact, currently closed and unless the NTC implements its offer of a pardon to all those innocent people who are currently jailed - which is unlikely - then scope for further mischief is vast. There are likely to be further attacks on jails as relatives try to free their kinsmen In addition, however, the fate of prisoners of war is also a major problem, with many thousands of criminals, fighters and anti-government civilians cooped up together until such time that an amnesty is declared under the authority of Mustafa Abdel Jalil.

The NTC's foreign policy position is largely one of ignorance and incapability of managing affairs using a small cadre of officials originally employed by the Qadhafi authorities. So far, the NTC has made few friends, even in the near Arab world.

Links with Egypt are currently particularly sour despite an urgent need for manual labourers on Libyan farms and in the factories. The Egyptian workforce was knowledgeable and hardworking, and Libya has done itself few favours by taking umbrage at Egypt's giving sanctuary to pro-Libyan refugees.

The government, if it has any logical pattern towards foreign affairs, may be seen as falling in line with US requirements by standing against the Islamists. The Muslim Brotherhood's recent electoral success in both Tunisia and Egypt has made Libya more important to the US in terms of its regional foreign policy. Trying to ensure that it remains secular cannot in any way, however, be viewed as a stabilising influence on Libya or North Africa.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Brazil: Mercosul summit

2012-01-12T05:08:00.000-08:00

The 42nd Mercosul summit was held in Montevideo on 20–21st December, with President Dilm Rousseff in attendance along with her counterparts from Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. The most important political issue addressed was Venezuela's membership in the trading bloc.

The Paraguayan Senate continues to oppose it, as it has for the last three years. At the initiative of Uruguay, and via convoluted legal reasoning, an attempt was made to by-pass parliamentary ratification to permit Venezuela to join. Ecuador's application is also expected. It was decided that about 200 products will be exempted from Mercosul's Common External Tariff and therefore have their tariff raised by up to 35 per cent. This is multilateralised protectionism.

Another decision taken at the summit, at the behest of Argentina, was to prohibit ships bearing the flag of the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) from access to the ports of member countries. This extends a prohibition that has been in force for several years in Argentina. The summit also approved a free trade agreement with the Palestinian Authority (a quid pro quo for having in earlier years approved one with Israel).

The slim results of this Mercosul summit reflect the mediocrity of the trading group's agenda. Shortly after the summit, the Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Mexico) held its second summit, on 4th December at Mérida, Mexico. Panama indicated it might join. The trade volume of Alliance members may soon exceed that of Mercosul partners. In any event, the very creation of the Alliance may be interpreted as contrary to Brazil's old aspiration to a South American common market.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Yemen: Saleh will continue to lead the GPC

2012-01-09T07:52:00.000-08:00

President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been playing his usual games. One day he says he will leave Yemen for medical treatment. A few days later he says that he will stay, blaming the opposition for some real or imagined slight. The latest move was that he would remain head of the General People's Congress (GPC) and lead the campaign for Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi 's election. He claims he needs to be in Yemen to help the transition arrangements and wants to get away from the attention on him and allow the national unity government to get on with its work.

There are difficulties over the question of immunity. The GPC will support the deal when it comes to parliament but the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) prefer a broader “reconciliation law” that would cover acts committed by some of Saleh's opponents. GPC leaders claim that Saleh's opponents were responsible for the attack on the Nahdain mosque on 3rd June and think the law is designed to prevent them from being prosecuted. The investigation into this is continuing but remains a potential time bomb.

Human rights groups point out that the immunity deal only applies in Yemen and that Saleh could face arrest if he travels abroad – and there are many who would attempt to bring action against him. This may have been the reason why the US administration seemed reluctant to allow Saleh to travel to the US for medical treatment, although it may also have wanted stronger assurances from Saleh that he would honour the transition deal. It may also be mindful of the protests that will come from the streets if Saleh not only receives treatment but also remain free while they are demanding his trial. Formally, the US did not respond to the request for a visa.

The Yemeni government will also have to take regard of a statement by Navi Pillay , the UN high commissioner for human rights: “Amnesties are not permissible if they prevent the prosecution of individuals who may be criminally responsible for international crimes, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and gross violations of human rights. Based on information we have gathered, there is reason to believe that some of these crimes were committed in Yemen during the period for which an amnesty is under consideration. Such an amnesty would be in violation of Yemen's international human rights obligations.”

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: Soltani's MSP to leave presidential alliance

2012-01-09T01:44:00.000-08:00

Bouguera Soltani, leader of the MSP (Islamist Movement for Society of Peace), or Hamas in Arabic, is hoping to take advantage of the success of other Islamist parties in other North African countries that have held elections this last year. He has therefore withdrawn his party from the ruling coalition or 'presidential alliance', as it is known, that comprises the FLN, the RND of Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, and his own MSP. The final decision was made by the MSP's shoura (advisory council) at its meeting at the end of December.

Soltani says that he wants to press for constitutional reform to limit the powers of the president. He is on record as saying that he does not believe that Bouteflika is serious about reform and has warned that voters would snub the ballot box in large numbers if political reform is not implemented.

He said: “The regime is not serious when it talks about political reforms. It continues to rule the country as it has always done... People continue to believe that the ballot is not the way for change….. Without serious reforms, the social front will remain unstable.”

Most commentators believe that Soltani's real reason for leaving the coalition, at least for the moment, as being to avoid losing votes in the upcoming elections, or, as he would no doubt word it, to attract more of the country's Islamist voters. His problem is that his party's membership of the unpopular ruling coalition, along with his own association with corruption scandals, could result in a collapse in the MSP vote as the Islamists support alternative parties.

As things stand at the moment, the MSP's departure from the ruling coalition would not strip the government of its majority. Currently, however, the party has a big following among conservative Algerians. Whether they will continue to support the party in the spring election is questionable. Soltani therefore sees his best chance of retaining support as being by trying to distance himself from the coalition. Few Algerians are likely to fall for it and most opinion is that the MSP vote is likely to collapse.

The MSP was founded in 1990 by Mahfoud Nahnah and Algerian members of the Muslim Brotherhood. Nahnah, who died in 2003, changed the party's name from Hamas. The party condemned the 1992 coup that led to the annulment of the 1992 elections, but did join the government coalition in 2004. The MSP currently has four ministers in minor posts.

The FLN General-Secretary, Abdelaziz Belkhadem, is on record as saying that there will be no Islamist tidal wave in the elections and that altogether the Islamists will not win more than 35 per cent of the vote.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Human Rights Commission condemns crackdown

2012-01-06T06:54:00.000-08:00

The Nigerian Human Rights Commission (NHRC), which was set up by the Federal Government, has responded to the forceful crackdown against protesters by the police and other security forces. In a statement released to the media, it stated that: “The National Human Rights Commission affirms that the right to assemble freely and to protest or demonstrate peacefully is a human right recognised and guaranteed within Sections 39-40 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 and Articles 9-11 of the African charter on Human and Peoples' Rights, which is domestic law in Nigeria”.

It further stated that the Government, in implementing its obligation, has a duty to “encourage its citizens to channel or express their grievances in a peaceful manner. Therefore, individuals or groups should be free to express their views, offer their criticisms, canvass their ideas for democratic change and improvement, and assemble or protest for these purposes provided they do not seek to propagate these ideas by violent means or in a manner that disturbs public peace, safety or security”.

NHRC went on to reprimand security agencies, saying: “At all times, it remains the obligation and responsibility of security agencies and law enforcement agents to ensure equal protection of all persons, including groups, within Nigeria and afford all the protections they require to exercise their constitutional rights”. The Commission reiterated that law enforcement agents must at all times respect and protect the human rights of all persons; avoid use of excessive force, arbitrary arrests and detention or resort to “third-degree” methods of policing.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt: Mubarak trials resume

2012-01-06T04:05:00.000-08:00

The trials of Hosni Mubarak and his family, as well as some of his cronies, have resumed amid moves to accelerate the process. There has been much resentment at the way the trials have been stretched out, leading to suspicions that senior members of the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces (SCAF) hope that Mubarak will die before he can be found guilty.

The prosecutors are showing some determination, and this week accused Mubarak of being a corrupt tyrant who had devoted his last ten years in office trying to ensure that his son Gamal succeeded him. They said that he had ordered the killing of protesters when the demonstrations broke out early last year and have announced that they seeking the death sentence.

AFP reports prosecutor Mustafa Khater as saying: “The law foresees the death penalty for premeditated murder.” Given the severity of the charges, seeking the death penalty was always a possibility, but many Egyptians will be shocked to hear the demand put so bluntly for the first time in the trial.

Earlier, both head of SCAF, Mohamed HusseinTantawi, and ex-head of intelligence, Omar Sulaiman, had testified that Mubarak had not ordered security forces to open fire on demonstrators in early 2011 (860 died).

Although there is a popular belief that the Mubaraks salted away billions of dollars, the prosecution said that Alaa and Gamal had illegal assets of rather less: US$340 million.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Iran: Investors cool on South Pars bonds

2012-01-05T04:22:00.000-08:00

Informed sources say that investors have purchased only 14 per cent of rial bonds that the Ministry of Petroleum sold through domestic banks across the country from 26th November to 1st December to attract funds for South Pars projects.

From the total investment of 5 trillion rials ($4.5 billion) expected to be attracted through selling bonds, only 700 billion rials ($630 million) was raised. Accordingly, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) announced that the bond offer would continue until the end of working hours on 4 December.

Experts believe that this cold shoulder results from an unpredictable gold and foreign exchange market, which attracts more funds and cash inputs. It could also suggest a lower level of overall liquidity in Iran's economy as investors have been attempting to deal with rising inflation.

The oil industry upstream sector in particular has been facing serious financial issues in recent years, which will be aggravated if bonds continue to sell poorly in further phases.

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

New Saharan provinces in Mali

2012-01-05T03:40:00.000-08:00

On 16th December, the Malian government announced that it was going ahead with the plan to create two new provinces in the northern desert regions of Taoudéni and Ménaka. Taoudéni is currently part of the Timbuktu region and Ménaka part of Gao.

This move is in accordance with the intention to increase the number of provinces from eight to 19 over five years. While justified as part of the state's decentralisation programme, the creation of these two new provinces in particular is also an attempt to improve the security of the country's northern region. The move will inject more administration into these largely ignored regions, as well as new military commands.

While the proposal appears to be welcomed by some sectors of the population, notably the Arab community of Timbuktu, it is receiving mixed initial views from the Tuareg population. While some see it as a genuine move towards decentralisation, others are wary that it will establish greater restrictions, especially militarily, over the predominantly Tuareg regions. The schedule for these new regions coming into practice is not yet established.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Ghana: Small parties may hold 2012 election balance of power

2012-01-04T07:13:00.000-08:00

If, as seems likely, the December 2012 presidential election goes to a runoff - between the National Democratic Congress' (NDC) incumbent John Mills and the opposition NPP's Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo Addo - then the disorganised and mainly leftist smaller parties could be important in deciding the outcome. This is why the two are energetically wooing them and why the NDC, which has many Nkrumahists in its ranks, probably has an advantage.

The oldest, but no longer the largest, Nkrumahist party is the Convention People's Party (CPP) which is chaired by Samia Nkrumah who is the daughter of Ghana's founding president, Kwame Nkrumah. Samia is the party's only MP and complains that it is disorganised: 'But, somehow, having an election every four years limits our ambitions.'

She is supported by Dr Agyeman Badu Akosa but they have now clashed with the party's former presidential candidate Paa Kwesi Nduom (see story below). He flounced out of the party on 27th December and is starting a new one on whose ticket he will run for the presidency. This year he may use his own considerable funds to support over fifty aspiring MPs.

The other Nkrumahist party, the People's National Convention (PNC), has four seats in parliament and could hold the balance of power. It is, however, divided between a group led by Somtim Tobiga, and the mainstream faction which includes Edward Mahama and the party's general secretary, Bernard Mornah.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Ibru struck from register

2012-01-04T04:49:00.000-08:00

The Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) has struck out the name of a former managing director/chief executive officer of Oceanic Bank and honorary fellow of the Institute, Cecilia Ibru , from its register of members.

A statement from the body yesterday said the decision was in furtherance, maintenance, and observance of ethical standards and professionalism among practitioners of the banking profession in Nigeria. The CIBN explained that the action was taken in line with the decision of its disciplinary tribunal on 12th December, which was confirmed by the governing council of the Institute, at its meeting of 13th December.

The tribunal, made up of eminent members of the banking profession with a retired justice of the Supreme Court as an assessor, in a unanimous decision granted the CIBN's request, indicating that Ibru 'should cease to hold herself out as a member of the banking profession (as provided by s. 16 of CIBN Act). With this development the name of Dr. (Mrs.) Cecilia Ibru has been struck out of the Register of Members of the Institute and hence, Banking Profession. She has also ceased to be a member of the banking profession.'

On 14th August 2009, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sacked Ibru alongside four other bank CEOs, after an examination revealing that the institutions they controlled had high level of non-performing loans, poor corporate governance practices, lax credit administration processes and an absence of or non-adherence to credit risk management practices, among other problems.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Mekong joint patrols

2012-01-03T07:54:00.000-08:00

Joint patrols of the Mekong River by China, Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar have begun as a way to combat crime and drug trafficking on the major waterway. The Golden Triangle has long been a centre of drug production, trafficking, and piracy. Gangs often hijack boats, which they then use for trafficking or smuggling and to kidnap people.

Earlier nine Chinese crew members were killed and nine Thai soldiers arrested. (They assert their innocence.) The murders finally prompted an agreement between the four nations in Beijing on 31st October.

The launch of these joint patrols is part of a plan to increase security in the increasingly busy river and shipping lane. They have set a precedent for more transnational cooperation in security issues in the region. On the first venture out, on 10 December, five armed police boats escorted 10 Chinese cargo ships along a stretch of the Mekong from China's southwesterly Yunan province to Thailand's Chiang Rai, heavily armed with machine guns and hundreds of soldiers.

The four nations will patrol 24 hours a day and provide convoy escort for cargo ships in an area that is rapidly becoming an important trade route for regional trade. One enthusiastic English-language Chinese newspaper called the plan 'a blessing to the 70 million people living in the river basin and the international commercial vessels travelling along the river.'

For more news and expert analysis about Vietnam, please see Vietnam Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: Sonatrach executives jailed

2012-01-03T03:18:00.000-08:00

A court in Oran has confirmed the prison sentences imposed on former Sonatrach president director general Mohamed Meziane and four other defendants last May (see Algeria Focus May 2011, page 9). Both the defence and the prosecution announced their intentions to appeal to the supreme court, the former continuing to insist on the men's innocence, the latter still hoping for a harsher penalty.

One media report described Meziane's “visible disappointment”. It said that, as he left the court, “with a gesture of his hand he showed that he could not find the words to react to the verdict”. According to Le Soir d'Algerie , the verdict surprised the five defendants. “We were expecting to be acquitted, it isn't just,” said one of them. A defence lawyer explained what had happened, saying that “it was easier to reconfirm the verdicts than to overturn them. We truly thought that they would all be acquitted.” Meziane was sentenced to two years, one suspended, and a AD500,000 fine. The former downstream vice-president Abdelhafid Feghouli , who temporarily took over as PDG after Meziane, received one year, of which eight months was suspended, and a AD200,000 fine.

Others with similar convictions were Benamar Touati , the former PDG of Sonatrach subsidiary Société de Conditionnement et de Commercialisation des Gaz industriels (Cogiz); Mekki Henni , former head of Sonatrach Aval 's studies and development department; and Nechnech Tidjini , head of the Algeria-French consultancy Safir . All have served their minimum terms and are therefore now at liberty. The trial concerned a contract awarded via the gré-à-gré system through Sonatrach Aval to Safir to build a nitrogen storage and conditioning centre.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Many Egyptians lose sympathy for the young revolutionaries

2011-12-22T05:53:00.000-08:00

Many Egyptians, particularly in the deep rural Delta and Upper Egypt, have lost whatever sympathy they might have had for the young, mainly liberal, activists who led the protests that brought down the regime of Hosni Mubarak. And so have the voters. The revolutionary parties have won only a tiny percentage of the votes. In this last round of elections, they risk not winning any seats. The protesters, who also include many hardcore Ultra football fans who have had years of violent confrontation with the security forces, are also held responsible by many for the continued disruption to the economy.

The video footage of a half-naked woman being dragged away by troops, however, has provoked an altogether different reaction. One retired general insinuated that she got what she deserved; what self-respecting woman would be demonstrating anyway? But many will also be seeing this as a violation of a code of honour by the army.

The army knew when it took over in February that the longer it stayed, the greater the risk of making mistakes which would damage its reputation in the eyes of the Egyptian people. It said it wanted to leave as soon as it could. And yet it failed to act to do so; it is now paying the price.

The army is right to say that Tahrir Square is not Egypt. But the army will, nonetheless, be judged by the way it behaves there.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Kazakhstan: Oil Ministry to go softly on mining companies

2011-12-22T03:05:00.000-08:00

Perhaps reflecting the labour movement's growing influence, the Oil and Gas Ministry has announced that wayward mining firms will be fined rather than have their contracts terminated, in a bid to safeguard jobs.

Announcing the decision at the end of November, ministerial secretary Kanatbek Safinov said that, “The termination of contracts will be used as a last measure, as in this case people will lose their jobs.” Instead, the government will prioritise economic sanctions against mining firms which violate their contracts, in accordance with last year's new subsoil law. Closer monitoring of mining companies will be undertaken, according to Safinov, and the termination of contracts is held out as a last resort.

Safinov gave no indication of how the extra monitoring will be carried out, or whether the process of appealing against fines will be toughened up, which may raise a few eyebrows among mining companies. Focusing on the livelihoods of mining employees may be a genuine populist touch, but fining companies rather than terminating contracts – 28 subsoil contracts were cancelled last year – is also undoubtedly a money-spinner for the state coffers.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

NTC asks UN to unfreeze more assets

2011-12-21T08:13:00.000-08:00

The UN Sanctions Committee swiftly responded to the National Transitional Council's (NTC) written request to lift the freeze on Libya's overseas assets. Although sanctions against the National Oil Company (NOC) were lifted in September, both the Central Bank and the Libyan Foreign Bank (LFB) continued to be subject to sanctions and particularly an asset freeze.

The sanctions on the two banks were lifted on 16th December with no objections from members of the committee. The US immediately signalled its intention to unblock those funds that are being held by the US Treasury; the UK and France acted in a similar fashion.

It is likely, however, that it will take some time for the assets to produce any form of useful cash injection into the local economy. It should though assist the NTC in demonstrating to the Libyan public that it is capable of running the country.

Not only are banks inside the country currently reporting trouble providing sufficient cash but substantial finances will also be essential for the government to both take on reconstruction projects and achieve its primary aim of providing adequate care for those who were wounded or bereaved during the fighting.

These aims are becoming all the more important when viewed in the context of increasing dissatisfaction about the direction in which the country is going. Protests are becoming more common as Libyans revel in their right to express their opinions and be heard. Although demonstrations have become commonplace in several areas, including Tripoli, it is Benghazi which has seen the majority of protests.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Ghana: Government announces local content policy roadmap

2011-12-21T03:08:00.000-08:00

The government's exact local content provisions and targets have been the cause of considerable debate, with a series of local content pronouncements being undermined by the lack of implementation of a defined policy.

At a recent Volta River Authority (VRA) organised forum on local content – which was attended by stakeholders including the Association of Ghana Industries – the Deputy Minister of Energy Emmanuel Kofi Armah-Buah claimed that parliament is focusing on the issue with the goal of finally implementing an official local content policy.

He claimed that, when implemented, the policy would have a number of goals, including:

increasing Ghanaian participation in the oil and gas sector to 90 per cent by 2020
the favouring of bids with higher local content over comparable bids with lower local content
priority purchasing of local products and services from Ghanaian businesses and providers even if their prices for comparable products or work were up to 10 per cent higher than that from foreign equivalents
the need to give first priority to Ghanaians when awarding contracts.
He also commended Kosmos, Tullow, and the VRA among others for their efforts to support "local content" to date.

This announcement comes the same week as another by the 13 member Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), which was inaugurated in September as specified by the 2011 Petroleum Revenue Management Act and includes the AGI, the Trades Union Congress, EITI and National House of Chiefs among others. PIAC pledged to monitor Ghana's oil industry closely, giving "a true account of the oil revenues to Parliament, the Executive and Ghanaians in general".

It also comes soon after comment by Dr Steve Manteaw of the Integrated Social Development Centre (ISODEC) who is also a leading member of the Civil Society Platform on Oil and Gas (CSPOG). He said that Ghana's small decline in Transparency International's global transparency ranking is partly due to the government's failure to ensure total transparency in oil contracts. He claimed that there is a perception of corruption possibly being increased because of the government's delays in passing of the Right to Information Bill and last year's dispute between the GNPC and Kosmos over oil exploration data.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Iraq issues an arrest warrant for Vice President al-Hashemi

2011-12-20T06:32:00.000-08:00

An Iraqi interior ministry official has said that the government has issued an arrest warrant – under anti-terrorism laws – for Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi. This has caused many to fear the collapse of the newly formed government and an increase in sectarian conflicts.

The news follows the arrest of al-Hashemi's bodyguards, who reportedly accused him of having ties with terrorist groups. The main Sunni political alliance has said it is going to boycott the cabinet.

The Al-Iraqiya party, which represents most of Iraq's Sunni Arab community, had already withdrawn from parliament, on the grounds that the Shi'a Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is monopolising power. Al-Hashemi has been a forthright critic of al-Maliki.

Iraq President Jalal Talabani's office issued a statement saying he was "surprised" by the issue of the warrant. The statement went on to say: "Making hasty decisions and announcing them in the media will complicate the political solutions needed in this delicate stage in Iraq's history.” These latest developments come as US troops prepare to withdraw from Iraq by the end of the year.

On Monday 19th December, Iraq's television broadcast a confession by the suspected terrorist linked to Hashemi, who said they had been paid by the vice president's office to carry out attacks on security officials and politicians.

One of the suspected terrorists said he had been given £2,000 by Hashemi himself. The names of the men have not been disclosed. Speaking about the situation a senior interior ministry official Maj Gen Kamal Hussein said: "According to article four of the anti-terrorism law, an arrest warrant has been issued against Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi and it is signed by five judges."

Al-Hashemi is banned from leaving the country, but has reportedly travelled to the semi-autonomous northern Kurdistan on Sunday 18th December. The warrant was drawn-up a day before, but the process was delayed as attempts were made to resolved the situation and persuade the Sunni bloc to abandoned its planned boycott.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

Algeria: Serbia's Defence Minister signs agreement

2011-12-20T03:52:00.000-08:00

Serbia's Defence Minister Dragan Sutanovac signed a military co-operation agreement with his Algerian counterpart, Abdelmalek Guenaizia, during his two-day 14-15th December visit to Algeria. Sutanovac told the media that: “Algeria is the Serbian Defence Ministry's most important partner in the military industry and both countries are interested in investing together in the development of new weapons and military equipment in the future.”

He was also reported to have met President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, but this remains unconfirmed, possibly because of his rumoured health relapse.

Sutanovac's discussions with Guenaizia centred on closer military ties and cooperation between the two countries. Their discussions reportedly covered:

a proposed expansion of cooperation between the two countries in military health care, in which Serbia claims considerable expertise

modernising the production of certain weapons and military equipment for the Algerian army

establishing Serbia weapons and military equipment plants in Algeria as part of its technology transfer programme

schooling Algerian officers at the Military Academy in Serbia

the visit to Serbia in the near future of a delegation of experts from of the Algeria's Ministry of Defence

a visit to Algeria by Serbia's President, Boris Tadic, in the first half of 2012.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Sokoto governor passed to run in ruling party primary

2011-12-19T02:52:00.000-08:00

Sokoto State's incumbent governor, Aliyu Wamako, has successfully navigated the screening process of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), ahead of the party's Sokoto State gubernatorial primary election which is scheduled to be held on 17th December.

Other candidates who passed the primary screening process are Senator Abubakar Gada and former Minister of Sports Yusuf Suleiman, who resigned his ministerial position a fortnight ago to contest Sokoto's gubernatorial elections.

There had been speculation that Governor Wamako might receive similar treatment to that given to his Bayelsa State counterpart, Timipre Sylva. The Bayelsa incumbent failed the screening test for the November primary and so was unable to contest the election. Suspicions were that Wamako would also be “screened out” to pave the way for Suleiman, who is thought to be the president's preferred candidate for next year's gubernatorial election in Sokoto.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Egypt: Higher turnout for second stage of parliamentary elections

2011-12-16T08:45:00.000-08:00

The second stage of the elections for the People's Assembly began on 14 th December in nine more governorates: Giza, Menufiya, Sharqiyya, Ismailia, Suez, Beni Sueif, Beheira, Sohag and Aswan.

Around 3,400 candidates are standing for a third of the 498 seats in parliament. A further ten in the 508-seat People's Assembly will be directly appointed by the military rulers. These typically go to women and Copts.

As in the previous round, one third of the seats are being contested on the first-past-the-post system for individual candidates while two thirds are being fought for along party lists according to proportional representation. Twice as many candidates are standing for half as many individual seats: 2,271 for 60 seats compared to 1,116 for the 120 awarded on party lists. The imbalance shows that a greater degree of party discipline is required for the list system.

Some last-minute adjustments to voting were made in answer to circumstances. Head of the High Elections Commission, Abdel Moez Ibrahim, ordered the postponement of voting for party lists in parts of Beheira, Sohag, and Menufiya, because of outstanding court rulings over the amalgamation of party lists. They will take place at the same time as the run-off elections on 21 st and 22 nd December.

Initial reports showed a high turnout although in the first round the initial turnout figure of 62 per cent was later corrected downwards to 52 per cent. A number of abuses and irregularities were reported but nothing like the brazen and wholesale fraud of elections in the Hosni Mubarak era.

Amr Hamzawi – a leading liberal who has the rare and unlikely distinction of being one of only four candidates to win outright in the first round of seats for individual candidates – said that liberals had to work harder to unify their ranks and pick the lists and the candidates most likely to win, if they are to maximise their impact at the ballot box in the complex voting system.

He noted that Liberals "need to avoid generating and sustaining the impression among Egyptians that we as the civil [secular] camp fear Islamists. Those who fear do not convince at the ballot box. It's a highly diverse (Islamist) camp and there are real points of tension between them. The Brotherhood has a strategic interest in generating and sustaining an image for the party and the movement as moderate. Salafists will challenge them".

He added that candidates have to get out on the streets and that "You have to count your potential voters by the number of hands you shake."

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

'Reconciliation conference' in Tripoli

2011-12-15T09:28:00.000-08:00

On 10th December, the National Transitional Council (NTC) opened a 'Reconciliation conference' in Tripoli which was attended by representatives from various regional groups and by overseas supporters such as Qatar and Tunisia. It was intended to address some of the regional and tribal issues which plague Libya.

Although the both NTC chairman Mustafa Abdel Jalil, and Prime Minister Abduraheem el-Keib, focused on reconciliation between the pro and anti-Qadhafi fighters, there are clearly strong regional ties to be addressed which will impact on the strength of any new national constitution.

The NTC also supported a conference in Doha which was discussing the emergence of a free and independent Libyan media. It was co-chaired by the NTC's vice-chairman, Abdul Hafez Ghoga, and was attended by experts from various associated fields. These included Oxford University's specialist on government media policies, Professor Robert G Picard, and the president of the International Centre for Journalists, Joyce Barnathan.

The conference's closing statement called for a free, open, and independent media and communications system with an independent regulator and a new system of media and journalism training. For the NTC this would be a clear sign to other countries that Libya can look different in a post-Qadhafi landscape.

A more immediate problem is disturbance and unrest that is still being caused by the militia groups that dominate Libya and particularly Tripoli. The head of the latter's local council, Abdel Rafik Bu Hajjar, announced on 6th December that Tripoli's residents and the rebels in the capital were being called on to disarm by 31st December. It was also announced that non-local groups of revolutionary fighters would be urged to leave Tripoli before 20th December. Tripoli's own military brigade is to be dissolved by 31st December. The feasibility of any of these deadlines is, however, in serious doubt.

Local protestors have taken to the streets in Tripoli to support the disarmament policy. In one demonstration, on 7th December, around 2,000 people gathered in Tripoli's Martyr's Square.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Prime Minister al-Maliki calls on US businesses to invest in Iraq

2011-12-14T08:49:00.000-08:00

Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has called on US businesses to invest in the country to help it recover from the war. The message comes as US troops prepare to withdraw from Iraq by the end of the year.

Speaking during a visit to Washington, al-Maliki said that the country's security situation has improved; and that Iraq was now being led by a civil as oppose to a military government. At present, the US is the leading foreign investor in the country.

Al-Maliki is on an official visit to Washington with 40 Iraqi delegates in a bid to sign trade co-operation agreements. Speaking to the US Chamber of Commerce, he said that Iraq was keep to sign oil co-operation deals and also others in healthcare, telecommunications, construction and financial services. He added that business possibilities for US companies were “limitless” and that they were best suited to help boost the country's economy.

He said: "It is not now the generals but the businessmen and the corporations that are at the forefront…All sectors of the economy are there, open for business for American business."

US President Barack Obama met al-Maliki on Monday 13th December. Speaking after the meeting he said he believed the Iraqi economy would grow at an even faster rate than India or China.

He also confirmed that all US troops would withdraw from Iraq at the end of the year, but added that the two countries would maintain a close relationahip.

He said: "We've got an enormous investment of blood and treasure in Iraq…And we want to make sure that even as we bring the last troops out, that it's well understood, both in Iraq and here in the United States, that our commitment to Iraq's success is going to be enduring."

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, WSJ

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

Sustainable cocoa project launched as Ghana cocoa continues to command premium

2011-12-14T05:46:00.000-08:00

Ghana's cocoa production is strong and it commands a premium over that produced elsewhere which rose in recent weeks to between US$130-US$165 per metric tonne compared to prices quoted on the NYSE Liffe exchange in London. The growing demand for “certified” cocoa has been recently noted by local officials including minister of finance Kwabena Duffour at an Accra cocoa conference in November. As previously reported in Ghana Politics and Security he noted the increasing Western preference for “certified” and often “organic” produce.

The Singapore based agricultural trader, Olam International, and Rainforest Alliance which certifies cocoa, have announced that they will together fund a US$1 million investment over the next three years to produce “sustainable” cocoa in Ghana which is certainly timely. They plan to train around 2000 farmers, significantly increase cocoa yields, and plant native trees to regenerate depleted forests in cocoa growing regions to help counter Ghana's annual deforestation rate of just over 2 per cent. The two - who have already implemented projects in Cote D'Ivoire, Nigeria and Indonesia, say that Ghanaian farmers should be able to claim an even greater premium for “certified” cocoa.

Despite a recent cocoa surplus and market price reductions caused mainly by high 2011 production in Cote D'Ivoire and Ghana, long term international cocoa demand should rise. The leading chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG, claims that approximately one million more tonnes of cocoa per year – i.e. more than Ghana's currently production – will be needed to meet demand by 2020.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Minister urges foreign companies to employ Ghanaian nationals

2011-12-13T09:12:00.000-08:00

Ghana's Energy Minister Joe Oteng-Adjei has warned Indian companies against bringing their own workforce to the country, urging them to employ locals. The minister made the comments shortly after signing an agreement with India's MBH Power and Shreem Electrical Limited in Accra. He said: "We don't expect you to bring in a ship-full of Indians to climb poles when we have more qualified people here who could as well perform the task."

Oteng-Adjei's comments are thought to have been made in a bid to help the country tackle high unemployment by inssitng that foreign companies working within Ghana take on local workers, especially in the energy and oil sectors.

The two Indian companies are expected to co-operate on a project to supply electricity to 110 communities across two regions as part of a $18-million national electrification project. The project, finance by Ecowas Bank for Investment and Development, is under the government's Self Help Electrification Project (SHEP) and will see an increase in supply of electricity across the Brong Ahafo and Ashanti regions within the next 18 months.

Oteng-Adjei also cautioned the companies over the mistreatment of Ghanaian emploees, saying: "The government would not hesitate to recall the company and its people, should they engage in acts of derogatory remarks and actions aimed at dehumanising indigenes in the beneficiary communities."

He added: "My advice, therefore, to you as contractors is to ensure that Ghanaians, particularly indigenes in the beneficiary communities, become involved in the execution of the project."

MBH Power managing director Bagu Mukhi said the processes for the award of the contract were transparent. He added that Ghana remained the country with most potential in Africa.

Sources: The Economic Times, Reuters, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

Gunfire near Tripoli airport threatens country's stability

2011-12-13T08:53:00.000-08:00

According to Libyan officials, fierce gun battles broke out near the international airport in Tripoli. An unnamed army spokesman told Libyan TV that on Saturday 10th December two gunmen opened fire on a convoy accompanying army chief Maj Gen Khalifa Haftar. He added that it was an "isolated incident".

The attack was reportedly followed by further clashes along the road. The latest violence adds to concerns about the country's stability following the death of Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi.

The reports are, however, conflicting. Some army officials have told AP news agency that the rebels belonging to the Zintan brigade - who control the airport - were behind the attack. But a member of the Zintan brigade, Abu Bakr al-Ahrash, told AFP that it was the army who attacked his unit near the airport.

He said: "They confiscated two pick-up trucks loaded with anti-aircraft guns. They tried to take control of the checkpoint. They wounded two of our fighters and arrested two others."

The clashes came on the same day as the country's governing National Transitional Council (NTC) held its first conference on national reconciliation. It has given militias in Tripoli until 31 December to disarm and leave the city.

Sources: BBC News, AP, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Iran: Steel factory blast kills seven

2011-12-13T03:38:00.000-08:00

According to Iranian media reports, an explosion at a steel factory has killed seven people including, foreign nationals. Iran's official news agency, Irna, reported that the blast in the city of Yazd was caused by discarded ammunition designated for scrap metal.

The blast occurred on Sunday 11th December. Irna reported that at least 12 other people were injured in the explosion. Speaking about the incident, the governor of Yazd Azizollah Seyfi said "several of those killed were foreign nationals".

Additionally, a local member of parliament Ali Akbar Oliaw, said there appeared to have been unexploded munitions in with the steel. He noted: "Among the scrap metal was ammunition which had not worked, and this caused the blast."

There has been a number of suspicious explosions in Iran this year at factories and military sites, which has prompted some to stipulate of the West's involvement in a bid to disrupt the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme.

Despite several rounds of sanctions, Iran is determined to persevere with its nuclear activities and insists that it is not building a nuclear bomb.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

Yemen: Al-Qa'ida militants break out of prison in Aden

2011-12-13T03:12:00.000-08:00

Yemeni officials have confirmed that 12 Al-Qa'ida militants have broken out of prison in the southern city of Aden. The militants and two other accomplices escaped through a six metre tunnel dug from the yard at the city's central prison.

The officials added that the militants were being tried for bank robbery or were charged with assassinations of security officers. In June, al–Qa'ida members raided the central jail in the southern city Mukalla, freeing dozens of prisoners.

The security situation in the country is deteriorating. Yemen's army has been inovleved in ongoing fighting with al-Qa'ida militants around the country for months. Yemen is undergoing a political crisis, which has incited insurgency in the north, a separatist movement in the south, nationwide protests calling for reform and free elections and heavy conflicts between different factions in the capital Sana'a.

Last month, President Ali Abdullah Saleh agreed to to hand his powers to his deputy and quit within 90 days. The most violent finding between security forces and the militants were reported in the city of Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan province.

According to the UN, suspected Al-Qaeda fighters have displaced around 45,000 people in southern Yemen alone.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, WSJ

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Algeria: National Assembly votes to maintain two-decade ban on FIS

2011-12-12T04:12:00.000-08:00

As anticipated, the National Assembly (parliament) voted on 6th December to maintain the two-decade ban on the Front Islamique du Salut (FIS). This will ensure that the FIS is unable to participate in next March's parliamentary elections and, therefore, remains locked out of power. The FIS, it will be recalled, won the vast bulk of the seats in the December 1991 elections but the army stepped in to cancel the second round of voting in January 1992 in an effective coup d'état which brought the current regime to power.

The National Assembly vote did not actually mention the FIS by name. It merely upheld the ban on “any person responsible for the exploitation of religion having led to the national tragedy (civil war) from founding a party or participating in its creation”.

The continuation of the ban was widely expected, having been recommended by the presidential commission that was established in the spring. The Assembly also approved an amendment that stipulated a ban being extended to all persons who have “participated in terrorist acts and who refuse to recognise their responsibility in the conception, the preparation and the execution of a policy in favour of violence against institutions of the state”.

In Doha, the FIS' exiled veteran leader, Abassi Madani, said the decision “violated international conventions on political and civic rights”. He said that he was going to take the matter to the UN and other international bodies. Back in Algiers, his deputy, Ali Belhadj said that he would demonstrate publicly against the ruling. He and his brother, Abdelhamid Belhadj, were both taken into custody for a number of hours, before being released.

As a number of commentators remarked, the government had placed itself in a 'lose-lose' situation. Having spent the last few years telling the world that “the FIS doesn't represent anyone”, why did they feel it necessary to ban it? On the other hand, if they had allowed it to stand in the March 2012 elections there is the distinct probability that it would once again have won.

As it is, most Algerians will almost certainly boycott next year's election. Although the government will no doubt falsify the turnout figures, as it has done in every election this century, the 'real' turnout is anticipated at only being between 15 and 25 per cent.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Prime Minister El Ganzouri announced cabinet

2011-12-09T08:18:00.000-08:00

Kamal El Ganzouri, appointed prime minister by the ruling military after the resignation of Essam Sharaf after the violent protests in Tahrir Square that were put down by force with 42 deaths, waited until the results of the first round of parliamentary elections were in before announcing his cabinet. His appointments, however, show that the election results counted for nothing in his deliberations. The cabinet consists of the usual mix of former senior civil servants and technocrats who can administer, rather than politicians with vision or, at least, courage to take policy decisions.

Islamists might have won the popular vote, but this has not been taken as any right to exercise power or responsibility through government. None of the new ministers is a member of one of the Islamist parties.

Nor has the 78 year-old Ganzouri, who was Mubarak's prime minister in the 1990s, gone for youth. Most of the appointees are in the autumn of their lives.

He has retained two Mubarak-era ministers: Hassan Younis for electricity and Fayza abu Naga, for international co-operation (and one of three women in cabinet). The defence minister Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi remains unchanged but since he appointed Ganzouri he is above question. Half the cabinet remain. They include foreign affairs and tourism.

There was some delay because of the difficulty of finding someone competent and suitable to be interior minister. Once again, the interior minister is not a civilian but a former police chief and one who has, like all such men, a history of brutality in the repression of dissent: General Mohamed Ibrahim, former head of the Giza Security Directorate.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Brazil: Ruckus over royalties, again

2011-12-09T04:20:00.000-08:00

An 'official' protest act was organised on 10th November by the governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Sérgio Cabral , against a bill already passed by the Senate and pending in Congress that will redistribute a large share of the royalties formerly due only to the hydrocarbon producing states.

The 27 states of Brazil as a whole stand to gain. The state of Rio de Janeiro will lose. Some 150,000 people rallied in downtown Rio to put pressure on the government. President Dilma Rousseff said as a candidate that, if elected, she would veto the reallocation of royalties if Congress granted them to the non-producing states. In Congress, however, the mood is heavily in favour of redistribution.

Governor Cabral may perhaps be excused for his manipulation of public opinion, since the stakes are very high indeed. Through to 2020 the state of Rio stands to lose R$125 billion. Instead of having the ICMS tax collected at the point of origin of oil and gas production (mostly in the Campos basin, within the waters of Rio), the bill would levy the tax at the destination (elsewhere in Brazil).

The impact of the new legislation would be even more catastrophic for the 12 municipalities of the state in whose offshore waters hydrocarbons are produced: up to 74.5 per cent of their municipal revenues come from royalties.

While most oil and gas production in Brazil comes from Rio, São Paulo, and Espírito Santo states, in whose territorial waters the Campos, Santos, and Espírito Santo basins lie, at least six northern and northeastern states may join their ranks: Amapá, Ceará, Maranhão, Pará, Piauí, and Rio Grande do Norte. Others, like Alagoas, Amazonas, and Sergipe, show similar potential. The issue is therefore one of overriding national interest. Rousseff intervened in mid-November to postpone the Chamber of Deputies vote on the royalties issue to 2012. Thus, oil-producing states like Rio will continue to enjoy their privileged access to royalties for a while. Rousseff prefers to let tempers cool as the issue risks splitting the ruling coalition, which she cannot afford. For the government, other issues take precedence and must be voted on before the end of this year. Bills on the World Soccer Cup (Lei Geral da Copa), the federal budget, and DRU (the reallocation of budgetary appropriations) are up first.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya's new cabinet formed

2011-12-08T06:25:00.000-08:00

On 4th December, the remaining government ministers were inaugurated into Prime Minister Abduraheem el-Keib's cabinet. Among the new ministers were Defence Minister Osama Juwaili and Oil Minister Abdul Rahman Ben Yezza. (See Libya P&S - 30.11.11 for further details on the task facing the new Oil Minister)

Also taking up his portfolio was Fathi Terbil as the new Minister for Youth and Sport. Terbil – the lawyer representing the families of the Abu Selim prison massacre whose arrest sparked the February 2011 revolution - reportedly told Reuters that he had been unsure about accepting the portfolio. Indeed, the rumours in the previous week suggested that he had resigned before taking up his post. According to the interview, Terbil had initially turned the position down because of his links to the National Transitional Council's (NTC) original Executive Committee. He also told Reuters that family and friends had advised him against taking the post.

Defence Minister Colonel Osama Juwaili, from Zintan, is facing a stiff challenge in drawing up plans to resolve the problems surrounding the country's numerous militias. It is almost universally agreed that it is essential to disarm all the volunteer fighters currently on Libya's streets and to bring both the 50,000 militia men and the various regional security forces under one central control. This challenge does not, however, only fall under his portfolio, and new Interior Minister Fawzi Taher Abdela'ali has suggested that the security forces will involve the assimilation of anti-Qadhafi fighters into both the Interior and Defence forces.

This process has already begun and is being assisted by the French police who have been training former revolutionary fighters. It is rumoured that a policy for completing the process will be announced shortly.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Yemen: Nexen may leave, Total hopes for extension

2011-12-07T08:22:00.000-08:00

Canadian oil company Nexen, which has been active in Yemen since 1987, has announced that it is “reconsidering” its position after it was prevented from renewing its concession for the Masila oil field, which was due to end on 17th December. The company said that, “while we are disappointed we did not receive an extension, we are proud of the accomplishments we’ve achieved there. Our operations at Masila have generated significant value for our company, enabling us to deploy the cash flow to build our current portfolio of legacy assets.” The government has set up Masila Company for Petroleum Exploration and Production (PetroMasila) to take over the field and its proceeds will go to the ministry of finance. Production at the field has dropped to only about 10 per cent of its 2003 peak of 225,000 b/d. Nexen still has another small field at East Al- Hajr, producing 6,000–8,000 b/d.

Earlier this year, Yemeni government sources were signalling that the concession would be renewed. More recently, Nexen indicated that it was planning for a withdrawal should negotiations fail, suggesting that it did not expect to win. It is possible that the government desperately needs as much revenue as it can get from the field to make up for the reduction in income as Yemen’s other oil exports fall. The opposition says that the people will not see any of the money, as it will be squandered by the regime for political purposes.

The affair sends a very bad signal to other companies still looking to enter Yemen, either to farm into existing concessions or try to get new ones. Others are interested in Yemen’s considerable mining potential. Yemen clearly needs to do all it can to encourage foreign investment in both building on the promise of the transition arrangements and the international willingness to help Yemen overcome its problems.

Gas exports, which will be of increasing importance to Yemen, have not been interrupted. Total is negotiating arrangements over its oil concessions. This will no doubt be helped by the high-profile (for Yemen in these dangerous days) visit by the French ambassador to its Block 10 field in Hadhramaut.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

President Mills calls for UN to support peaceful elections in Ghana

2011-12-07T05:38:00.000-08:00

Echoing calls in recent weeks for Ghana's elections to be free and fair, President John Atta Mills – speaking at its New York headquarters - asked the UN to provide its support in ensuring they are peaceful and unbiased. He said: “I will not allow Ghana to burn under my watch and want the UN to support me in my endeavour”.

Mills also emphasised that those seeking to “destroy our peace and stability” would be “dealt with decisively,” and that he was less focused on simply being president than being committed to improving Ghanaian living standards and ensuring “peace and harmony”. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon pledged support to Ghana's democracy and commended Mills for his role in supporting peace in Cote D'Ivoire.

Coincidentally, a representative of the United Nations Development Programme stated at an event in Accra - co-organised with the African Union, UNECA - that “Africans must begin to move away from the negative electoral tag of violence”, and “champion the good stories of Ghana and other African countries”. A local UN coordinator also highlighted the importance of examples like Ghana and Zambia for politicians and other participants in other African countries.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Iraq: Deadly bomb attacks leave 30 dead

2011-12-06T08:39:00.000-08:00

Iraqi officials say at least 30 people have been killed in a series of bomb attacks targeting Shi'a pilgrims celebrating the festival of Ashura. This has been one of the deadliest number of attacks to date. A car full of explosives blew up as a procession of pilgrims passed through the al-Nil area, north of the city of Hilla.

According to local security officials 16 people were killed, among them women and children. Later, in two separate attacks at least 11 pilgrims died when a bomb went off in the capital city of Baghdad. And in another separate incident at least eight were killed when a roadside bomb exploded near a convoy of pilgrims in the northern district of Urr, while the other three were killed in Mashtal, in the city's east.

Explosive devices were also detonated near groups of pilgrims in the centre of Hilla and in the town of Latifiya, to the north, also leaving three people dead.

The violence came a day before the commencement of the religious festival , which has been a cause of sectarian violence since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. It is estimated that almost 200 people were killed in November, some are worried that the ongoing violence will increase when more than 10,000 US troops withdraw from the country by the end of the year.

Sources: Reuters, BBC News, WSJ

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

Yemen: Outbreaks of violence in Taez leave seven dead

2011-12-06T03:05:00.000-08:00

Yemeni army and anti-government groups and tribal fighters have once again clashed in the city of Taez. Medical officials have told the BBC that seven people had been killed in the latest fighting, bringing the death toll to 30 since Thursday 1st December.

Taez, Yemen's second city, has been a site of major unrest during months of ongoing protests against President Abdullah Saleh's rule. Experts fear that the latest outbreaks of violence might threaten the power-transfer agreement recently signed by the president.

The deal reached last month saw Saleh hand over power to Vice President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi in return for immunity from prosecution

The Yemeni government is reportedly deploying einforcements to Taez in order to reinstall order in the city.

Although Saleh is no longer officially in power, he has recently made several announcements that have made many question his motives.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Egypt: Low turnout for parliamentary elections

2011-12-06T01:49:00.000-08:00

Egyptians are voting in a second round of parliamentary elections. So far, the turnout has been low in the nine governorates holding run-offs, where a total of 52 seats are being contested.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) won 36.6 per cent of the 9.7m ballots cast last week, while the Salafist al-Nour Party with 24.4 per cent. These are the first democratic elections in over three decades, and since the ousting on former president Hosni Mubarak.

Further waiting is set to take place later this month and in January. Egypt electoral system dictates that two-thirds of the 498 seats in the lower house of parliament, the People's Assembly, will be picked through proportional representation, using lists drawn up by parties and alliances.

The remainder of the seats are selected via the first-past-the-post-system, with individual candidates required win more than 50 per cent of the votes to avoid a run-off contest.

Only four seats were won outright in the first round, the remainder 52 are to be decided in the secondary round. Twenty four of the seats are being contested by the FJP and al Nour.

On Sunday 4th December, the Muslim Brotherhood, which was banned from politics during Mubarak's three-decade rule, urged its rivals not to contest last week's results.

The FJP's deputy leader, Essam al-Erian said: “We all believe that our success as Egyptians toward democracy is a real success and we want everyone to accept this democratic system. This is the guarantee for stability."

The secular Egyptian Bloc came third in the first round with 13.4 per cent of the vote, followed by the liberal Wafd Party with 7.1 per cent and the moderate Islamist Wasat Party with 4.3 per cent. The Revolution Continues, a group formed by youth activists behind the uprising that ousted Mubarak in February, won 3.5 per cent.

BBC News, AP, AFP, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Algeria: A new political map of North Africa

2011-12-05T02:50:00.000-08:00

An editorial in the DRS-controlled daily, Ennahar, on 28th November, described Algeria as “surrounded by Islamism in the east and terrorism in the south.”

The result of France's 'good war' in Libya, and Algeria's duplicity in the Sahel, have created what the Algerian regime now sees as a new political map of the Maghreb and Sahel. In its bitter invective, Ennahar described how these events have enabled France “to re-establish its influence in its former Sahel colonies and to install political systems that obey her in Libya, Tunisia and Morocco.” This new political map represents, in the eyes of Algeria's rulers, the revival of France”. Algeria now sees itself as the “the only country outside the circle, surrounded from the east and the west by pro-France Islamist governments, from the southeast by a country ruled by armed gangs after the fall of Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi and from the extreme south by weak regimes that cannot disobey orders from the Elysée.”

Most analysts would argue that Ennahar's analysis is exaggerated and a reflection of the neurosis of Algeria's rulers. Certainly, neither Morocco, nor Tunisia and Libya 'obey' France, while it is a moot point whether the Sahel states would be more inclined to disobey orders from Washington or Paris.

Nevertheless, elements within the Algerian regime are clearly angered by the situation in which they now find themselves, with the result that we are more than likely to see that anger being manifest in further action (i.e. 'terrorism') against French interests in the Sahel.

Indeed, the Ennahar 'analysis' raises the question of whether the kidnap of two Frenchmen at Hombori in Mali on 24th November, followed by the shooting of a European tourist and the kidnap of three others in Timbuktu the next day, might be the first salvoes in an expression of renewed antagonism towards France, its influence and interests in the region and perhaps, in the light of the Libyan rebellion, NATO itself.

These latest terrorist incidents in the Sahel are analysed in depth in the December issue of Sahara Focus. However, they do have major implications for Algeria.

While almost all media reports, especially those in Algeria, have assumed that the attacks have been undertaken by Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)

our information from Gao, Timbuktu and Goundam, is that the attacks were most likely undertaken by Tuareg. That does not exclude possible AQIM involvement, nor the possibility that the five hostages will end up in the hands of AQIM.

According to local people in the region, however, at this stage it appears that the Tuareg who were involved, were returnees from Libya and were probably from Qadhafi's army or mercenaries. Local people believe that their primary motives were to seek revenge against France and NATO for the toppling of Qadhafi, and with the possibility of making some money on the side.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Chevron shuts down one of its production wells

2011-12-02T08:43:00.000-08:00

Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP) has ordered Chevron to shut down one of its 11 production wells and four produced water injection wells at its off-shore Frade joint-venture floating production-storage and offloading facility.

The move follows ANP's safety audit of the trade facility in late November. The production well cited by the ANP accounts for less than 10 per cent of trade total production of about 79,000 b/d. The company says all trade production and injection wells are safe and secure, and it continues to fully work with the Brazilian government agencies to address their specific issues.

Chevron conducts regular monitoring of the substance, a natural by-product of the
oil and gas production process. The company has safety systems and processes in place to ensure the utmost security at all times.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

Nigeria: Seven Energy seeking investors

2011-12-02T05:57:00.000-08:00

Seven Energy is seeking finance by divesting some of its shares. The indigenous company is headed by Philip Ihenacho, a British/Nigerian lawyer with interests in the finance sector. Ihenacho co-founded Afrinvest West Africa (AWA), which is also up for sale, and is also the co-founder of Amaya Capital Partners.

Seven Energy is offering a total of 73,302 units of its shares, in lots of 30,000 units and an odd lot of 3,302 units, by way of a private placement. The offer price is $350 per unit, with a 1 per cent placement fee. A special purpose vehicle, AFP Hydrocarbon Investment, has been set up for the divestment.

According to Seven Energy, the divestment represents an opportunity for investors to gain exposure to the Nigerian oil and gas industry. Earlier in the year, Seven's subsidiary Septa Energy acquired a lucrative strategic alliance agreement for the 55 per cent interest that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) assigned to its subsidiary, the Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC), for two oil blocks previously owned and operated by Shell and its partners Eni and Total .

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Iraq: Al-Maliki at a low ebb as regional autonomy demands grow

2011-12-01T08:27:00.000-08:00

Iraq is lurching into yet another crisis. Things seem to be going from bad to worse and the optimism that accompanied the run-up to last year's elections is but a distant memory. Not only is the country still paralysed by an interminable political stalemate that has the various blocs at each other's throats, but the security situation is worsening by the week. The latest string of bombings and suicide attacks to hit the country is yet another reminder that, for all his pre-election promises, Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has been unable to halt the tide of violence. It is also a reminder that the power sharing agreement drawn up after the March 2010 elections was not really a solution at all.

Rather it amounted to a quick fix that brought all sides together at the lowest common denominator in the interests of getting an agreement.

To make matters worse, calls from a number of governorates for the formation of autonomous regions are growing, placing additional pressures on the already beleaguered PM. Al- Maliki is desperately trying to hold things together, as Iraq's national unity is being seriously challenged for the first time.

Yet the premier knows that things are about to get a lot worse. The withdrawal of US troops at the end of the year will leave the country even more vulnerable to violence and to meddling by other regional powers. Iraqis are bracing themselves for what they believe will be a very rough ride.

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya: Reaction to El-Keib's new cabinet remains mixed

2011-12-01T02:36:00.000-08:00

The domestic reaction to Prime Minister Abdurrahim El-Keib's new cabinet has continued to be mixed, although the majority opinion is probably negative. There has been quiet criticism of what is perceived as a largely weak body.

One of the reasons for this is that the new ministers had to declare that they had no future political ambitions. This had the result that those powerful individuals who want to take part in the 2012 elections, or the subsequent presidential elections, could not be part of the interim government.

While the international community is relieved that there are no major Islamic figures in key portfolios, the domestic audience has found plenty to criticise.

In particular, it is rumoured that the Berber population, which felt itself very badly treated during Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's rule, is unhappy with their lack of representation in the cabinet in which Misrata alone has 5-6 ministers. So, too, is the east, and particularly Benghaz, which argues that it was the cradle of the revolution but has once again been marginalised.

Reported Berber protests, particularly in Benghazi and Tripoli, culminated in a forced meeting between their representatives and Prime Minister El-Keib on 27th November. Rumours maintain that, despite the meeting, the Berber/Amazigh Council of the predominantly Berber Zuwara area has temporarily broken with the National Transitional Council (NTC), although this has not been officially confirmed.

There have also been rumours that Youth and Sports Minister Fathi Terbi resigned his post after two days. According to several reports, he resigned on 25th November following public opposition to his appointment.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Algeria: Terror fears increase security in Hassi Messaoud

2011-11-30T09:29:00.000-08:00

Exceptional security measures have been imposed around both Hassi Messaoud and oil installations in the vicinity. Local media reports towards the end of November 2011 said that checkpoints at both entrances to the city had been enforced. Vehicle and person searches were carried out for several days in early November.

Informed sources told the Arabic daily El Khabar that extra vigilance was being applied since Algeria's intelligence service warned that desert smugglers and terrorist groups planned to target energy sites and abduct foreign nationals. Several sources told El Khabar that a member of the Algeria military was arrested in October following a tip-off from a terrorist caught in the northern province of Boumerdes who claimed to have ties in Hassi Messaoud with the arrested military person.

While the southern sites remain secure since the introduction of the new measures, a homemade bomb targeted on 18th November the gas pipeline which links Hassi R'mel with many provinces in the centre and north of the country.

The explosion took place in the town of Djebahia, 30km north of Bouira. The blast was heard several kilometres away and at least nine northern municipalities were cut off from gas supplies for several hours. A local newspaper

reported that the authorities rushed to call on specialist repair teams; however, officials did not comment any further on the incident.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Ghana: Smaller political parties confront allegations

2011-11-30T03:30:00.000-08:00

Officials of the opposition Convention Peoples Party (CPP) claim that they have discovered a “grand plot” to “destabilise” and bring down the party's new leader, Yaaba Samia Nkrumah. This is allegedly being done by attempting to organise and obtain petitions to bring forward the party congress and hold an extraordinary session to select new national delegates. Meanwhile a senior party member, who was responsible for grassroots activities overseas, has defected to the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC), launching into a speech in London in support of his new party while also savagely criticising the New Patriotic Party (NPP) opposition.

The CPP is not the only small party suffering from internal conflict. According to news reports, leading People's National Convention (PNC) members have filed a writ at Accra's high court against the PNC's current leadership. They claim that voters at the party's 2007 national congress – at which Dr Edward Mahama was elected - included “street thugs” paid by the latter's associates to ensure his victory in the party's elections. The writ also claims that Ghana's Electoral Commission failed to provide adequate supervision at constituency elections.

On the national level, last week's comments by President John Atta Mills that the 2012 elections would be critical, and even a “test case” for African democracy, were followed by an announcement by USAID's director that it would partner local Ghanaian civil society organisations to assist the “participation” and “inclusivity” of the elections.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Kazakhstan: Parliament to dissolve for early elections

2011-11-30T02:29:00.000-08:00

A shake-up of Kazakhstan's moribund political landscape looks to be in the offing. On 10th November, 53 of the 107 members of the lower house of parliament, the Mazhilis – in which President Nursultan Nazarbaev's Nur Otan holds all the seats – sent a formal request to the president to dissolve the legislature and hold early elections.

A parliamentary poll was already scheduled for next August, but that date has now been moved forward to January, according to presidential aides. Officials have said that the date has been moved so that Kazakhstan can focus attention on the economic crisis rather than elections – a fairly thin reason given the lack of real campaigning and competition in Kazakh elections.

It is also being presented as a way for Kazakhstan to develop – at least cosmetically – a multi-party democracy and move away from Nur Otan's total monopoly of parliamentary seats. Under last year's revised election law, the party that comes second automatically enters the Mazhilis, even if it fails to pass the 7 per cent threshold. This would almost certainly mean that Ak Zhol, the pro-business party derided by hardcore opponents of the government as a pseudoopposition, would enter the legislature to provide a superficial dose of debate and competition with Nur Otan.

Presidential officials have actively supported this idea. In the summer, key Nazarbaev aide Yermukhamet Yertysbaev said that he hopes Ak Zhol will become “a worthy sparring partner” for Nur Otan. Ak Zhol's newish leader, Azat Peruashev, was a Nur Otan member until the day before he became opposition leader in July.

There is speculation that the shake-up of parliament is also intended to open up a space for Timur Kulibaev, Nazarbaev's son in law and the closest thing to an heir apparent. Kulibaev has been linked with Ak Zhol, partly through his association with Peruashev. This would allow him to keep a firm hand on the 'opposition' party while maintaining a position of dominance in Nur Otan.

It would also give him an opportunity to inherit a (nominally) multi-party system. Combined with his profile as a fairly youthful technocrat, this would help Kulibaev to present a more modern and democratic face of Kazakhstan. The absence of a clear succession plan is concerning investors, and leading to pressure on Nazarbaev for a clear signal. “No one likes surprises – not least the capital markets,” says one oil executive working in the country.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya: UN says former rebels hold up to 7,000 prisoners

2011-11-29T06:13:00.000-08:00

The UN says former Libyan rebels are holding approximately 7,000 prisoners. It believes the detainees are being held without right to legal process because the police and courts are not functioning, and some may have been tortured. The UN suspects that many of the sub-Saharan Africans were hired by Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi as mercenaries during the war.

It is thought that the new Libyan government has taken heed of the situation and promised to deal with the issue in a responsible way. This is the first UN assessment of Libya since the end of the eight month conflict.

The report issued by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, suggests that 7,000 captives are presently held in detention centres across the country under guard by revolutionary groups.

Speaking about the situation Ban Ki-moon said: “I believe the leaders of the new Libya are committed to building a society based on the respect for human right…While the (National Transitional Council) has taken some steps toward transferring responsibility for the detainees from brigades to proper state authorities, much remains to be done to regularize detention, prevent abuse and bring about the release of those whose detention should not be prolonged," the report says.”

He continued: “I believe that the leaders of the new Libya are indeed committed to building a society based on the respect for human rights… Achieving this requires the earliest possible action, however difficult the circumstances, to end arbitrary detention and prevent abuses and discrimination, against third country nationals as well as against any group of Libya's own citizens.”

In related news, UN envoy to Libya Ian Martin welcomed last week's appointment of an interim government in Tripoli.

Speaking to the BBC, Martin said: "It is indicative of the difference from the attitudes of past regime that there is no denial that human rights are being violated and in most cases international organisations are granted access to detainees…The new minister of the interior told me he welcomed public criticism as strengthening his hand in tackling the issues.”

Libya's new government was assembled by the newly elected interim Prime Minister Abdurrahim al-Keib. It now faces many challenges including, drafting of a constitution and holding democratic elections by next June.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Vietnam: Nuclear plans afoot

2011-11-29T02:57:00.000-08:00

During a recent state visit by Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev and an accompanying delegation, the official news agency announced that Kazakhstan would like to supply Vietnam with nuclear fuel for the production of energy and also hopes to cooperate in the development of Vietnam’s oil and gas industry.

Hanoi has already made deals with Russia and Japan to support its nuclear development plans (although the agreement with Japan has yet to be ratified by the Japanese parliament). In November, the government announced that it will invest three trillion dong (around US$143 million) in upgrading its human resource capabilities in the sector.

Using Russian help, Vietnam plans to build its first nuclear power plant in 2020 – it hopes to have 14 operational power plants by 2030 and has pledged the investment to ensure that it is able to build, manage, and maintain the facility when it opens. Training will be offered to 2,400 engineers and 350 academics and industry experts through cooperation between Hanoi’s Ministry of Science and Technology and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Most of the funding for the project will come from Vietnam’s stage budget, with a smaller amount being invested by Electricity of Vietnam, the state’s power supplier.

For more news and expert analysis about Vietnam, please see Vietnam Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya: Sovereign wealth to finance infrastructure

2011-11-28T04:59:00.000-08:00

Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) funds will be used to finance reconstruction inside the country rather than invested abroad. The sovereign wealth fund's acting chief executive, 46-year-old Rafik Nayed, recently told international wire services that he expected the $65 billion fund to contract in the short term because of this decision.

Since August, Nayed has led a team that is reviewing all LIA investments and has put a moratorium on operations until this is complete. 'We aren't interested in new deals,' he told the Wall Street Journal back in September. 'My mandate … is to untangle the inheritance of the regime and stabilise.'

When it was established, the LIA said that it aimed to be transparent and to follow the best international investment practices. This was partly to allay suspicion about the motives that a powerful Qadhafi-controlled fund might have for acquiring assets in Europe and the United States.

These resolutions were not kept. By 2010, several original members of the board of trustees had resigned. Documents leaked to activist organisation Global Witness in June 2011 showed that many large investments made by the fund had in fact lost money. Nayed has attempted to introduce greater openness, telling Reuters that cash, equities, and fixed income products accounted for about 77 per cent of the total assets under management. He identified potential problems in many of the asset classes, describing the equities holdings as insufficiently diversified and some of the strategic shareholdings, managed partly through the Libyan African Investment Portfolio,as loss making.

He also said that he planned to examine the alternative and hedge fund investments closely, including deals with Goldman Sachs and Société Générale.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Iran: Award without tender?

2011-11-28T02:38:00.000-08:00

Majles Energy Commission spokesperson Emad Hosseini said the Ministry of Petroleum will be authorised under the new Petroleum Act to award oil and gas projects to contractors without tender formalities. Hosseini said the Ministry will have to award the projects based on the capabilities and qualifications of the contractors.

This new policy seems to have been devised as a result of sanctions that have effectively prevented international players from approaching Iranian energy projects.

It is not known whether Iranian contractors have the expertise to handle projects on their own. They may possess the basic knowledge to take care of tasks such as site preparation and the design of platform topsides, but they will need to involve foreign technology partners in some project aspects.

There is also no doubt that the new approach will pave the way for corruption in project awards.

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya's new Prime Minister to announce government by the end of November

2011-11-17T04:09:00.000-08:00

The newly appointed prime minister, Dr Abdel Rahim al-Keib, has not yet officially announced his new cabinet. He has told various press outlets that he is assembling a list of candidates and hopes to announce his government by 23rd November.

His predecessor, Mahmoud Jibril, who resigned following the declaration of Libya's full liberation, has expressed concern at the lengthy transition period. The timeline for elections, not scheduled to take place until a new constitution is drawn up which could take longer than the envisaged eight months, is of particular concern. Jibril also worries about the vacuum that has been left by the absence of a formal governmental structure.

Jibril has also been quoted as criticising Qatar, the National Transitional Council's (NTC) key foreign supporter, and has been repeating the unsubstantiated and ridiculous rumours that Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's death was somehow orchestrated by the foreign governments who had previously supported him. An investigation into how the former Leader died and the circumstances surrounding his capture and death has yet to begin.

Foreign governments and multilateral organisations have continued to support the NTC. The EU is the latest organisation to send representatives to Libya and it has officially opened a new EU delegation in Tripoli.

The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Baroness Catherine Ashton, visited Tripoli on 12th November to open the new delegation. She also took part in a women's forum, stressing that the EU was keen to work with Libya in forming a new democracy and civil society, particularly with women and young people.

She also met with NTC chairman Mustafa Abdel Jalil, and Dr al-Keib. This preceded the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting on 14th November. EU foreign ministers met in Brussels to discuss their relationship with Libya. In a closing statement, the Council of the European Union said that the EU was 'committed to deepening and strengthening its relationship with the Libyan people'. It also stressed the importance of EU-Libya ties through the Mediterranean Union.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Iran played a part in Iraq's decision over US troop withdrawal

2011-11-16T08:31:00.000-08:00

Adviser to Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, Sa'ad Youssef al-Mutalabi, has told the BBC that Iran influenced Baghdad's decision to disallow the US troops to remain in the country beyond the end of this year. Under the present agreement the US is expected to withdraw all its remaining forces from Iraq by 31st December.

Some experts are concerned about Iran's increasing influence on Iraq. The admission does not bode well for the US, who has lobbied for a new agreement that would allow the US to keep a contingent of several thousand soldiers in Iraq.

In October, after months of indecision, the government in Baghdad said no or at least not under conditions acceptable to the Pentagon.

Al-Mutalabi said the decision had been entirely Iraq's, but that Iranian sensitivities did play a part. He noted: "It is taking Iran into consideration. We understand that there is certain sensitivity. And we do not want an excuse for the Iranians to intervene in Iraq on the pretext that you have American troops."

Spokesman for US embassy in Baghdad Michael McClellan said: "We are not being pushed out and I don't think it's at the behest of Iran. Since 2003, our objective here has been to have an Iraq that is sovereign, stable and self-reliant. They are sovereign because they did make their own decision. We did not just come back at them and say: 'Sorry but we're going to keep our troops here anyway.'"

It is estimated that there are around 30,000 US soldiers in Iraq. Their withdrawal at the end of December will mark the end of the war that cost the US £630billion.

Sources: BBC News, Bloomberg, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

Ghana: Prisoners to vote in 2012 elections

2011-11-16T03:22:00.000-08:00

The Electoral Commission (EC) is to register prison inmates to enable them to vote in the 2012 general elections. On 9 th November, EC's chairman Dr Afari Gyan, said that the it would put all the necessary measures in place to start the process and would “ register them like any ordinary Ghanaian for the 2012 elections.”

Inaugurating the Ankaful Maximum Security Prison in the Central Region on 8 th November, President John Evans Atta Mills said that prison inmates have the right to vote and that the government and the EC would abide by the Supreme Court ruling.

The opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP), however, has accused Mills of using prisoners to help secure re-election in 2012. The NPP Central Regional Secretary Kwamena Duncan told reporters “ it is only a failing government, a President that is groping in the dark that would want prisoners to vote only because that is an easier way to garner votes to stay in power.”

The decision has also re-opened the debate on whether Ghanaians living abroad should be allowed to vote in the general elections.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates